A recent 20-year study conducted by two senior scholars from Harvard University and Stanford University in collaboration with Beijing University in China has revealed a significant shift in Chinese perceptions regarding economic inequality and unfair systems.
Between 2004 and 2014, survey respondents believed that insufficient ability, lack of effort, and low educational levels were the main reasons for poverty in China. However, in the latest round of surveys conducted in 2023, respondents identified unequal opportunities and unfair economic structures as the most important factors leading to their poverty.
Furthermore, the survey also inquired about how Chinese people can become wealthy. In the 2023 survey, “connections” rose to the top spot, while “growing up in a wealthy family” moved to the second spot. This reflects a widespread belief that becoming wealthy is not a matter of individual effort but rather relies on connections and family background. Having influential friends and coming from a well-off family are seen as the primary factors for achieving wealth.
In other words, as economic growth has slowed down, businesses have contracted, and unemployment numbers have continued to rise, many individuals have started to realize that they cannot rely solely on the Communist Party to bring prosperity. In fact, they have begun attributing some of the difficulties they face to the system itself.
Due to factors such as “unequal opportunities” or “unfair economic mechanisms,” both of which individuals cannot control, people are increasingly inclined to complain, feel anger, and express dissatisfaction. The survey report states that compared to decades ago, the sense of unease, inequality, and unfairness among Chinese people is intensifying.
The authors of the survey report noted that while the results did not indicate signs of a “social volcano” eruption, they did suggest that the legitimacy gained by the leadership through decades of continuous economic growth and improved living standards appears to be wavering.
Speaking to Voice of America, Chinese senior media figure Xiao Lin stated that using the term “social volcano” to describe the deep-rooted psychological mechanisms of oppression and deprivation in society is very apt. During periods of more robust social employment and economic prosperity, optimism tends to prevail, representing a calm period for the volcano. However, as Chinese people begin directing their dissatisfaction towards the system and entrenched interests, society gradually transitions into a turbulent period. When the number of oppressed individuals expands to a significant proportion of the population and generates strong empathy, the conditions ripe for a volcano eruption emerge.
Xiao Lin noted a saying in China that goes, “When poverty knocks at the door, love flies out of the window.” While this “poverty” implies hardship, it primarily signifies reaching a dead end. In situations where a large number of people are facing unemployment, bankruptcy, forced suicides due to financial struggles, lack of medical treatment resulting in death, and seeking redress for grievances with no outlet, an observable social phenomenon is an increase in criminal cases. Authorities respond with more extensive crackdowns and heightened stability maintenance measures, all contributing to the accumulation of energy for the eruption of the “social volcano.”
Taiwan Shih Hsin University General Education Center Assistant Professor and Visiting Scholar at the Institute of European and American Studies in Academia Sinica, Wu Jumeng, also told Voice of America that under the high-pressure rule and control of the Chinese Communist Party, the public’s feelings of discontent lack channels for expression, leading to the continual brewing of the “social volcano.” This is why terms like “lying flat,” “unaccomplished children,” and “youth nursing homes” have emerged in China, with the recent popularity of the term “historical garbage time” indicating that Chinese citizens have increasingly lost hope in the party’s reforms.
Former Beijing lawyer and Chair of the Canadian Alliance for Democracy, Lai Jianping, highlighted in an interview with New Tang Dynasty television that the accumulation and deepening of public discontent are inevitable precursors to the eruption of the “social volcano.” Simply put, when officials force the people to rebel, social or political transformations may occur rapidly.