In the race for Senate seats in the 2024 US election, Texas is shaping up to be a crucial battleground state. With significant demographic shifts due to a large influx of immigrants in recent years, the Democratic Party is targeting the state. They are preparing to challenge the incumbent heavyweight Republican Senator Cruz in the November elections, while Cruz is rallying for strong support from the Republican Party. It appears that this will be a fiercely contested and unpredictable Senate race.
In this year’s US election, 34 out of the 100 Senate seats need to be re-elected, including one special election. Of these 34 seats, 19 belong to the Democratic Party, 11 to the Republican Party, and 4 are independent.
Currently, the Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 advantage in the Senate, including the seat of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia. Observers believe that after Manchin announced he would not seek re-election, his seat is likely to be taken by Republicans. Therefore, the outcome of the Senate seat in Texas is likely to affect the party balance in the new 2025 Congress Senate.
Ted Cruz, 53, has been in the Senate since 2013 and won re-election in the 2018 midterms, now campaigning for a third six-year term. Cruz is a former member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a current member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Collin Allred, 41, was first elected to the US House of Representatives from Texas’ 32nd congressional district in 2018 and is now serving his third two-year term in the House. Allred is a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Both have legal backgrounds. Before serving as a US Senator, Cruz was the Texas Solicitor General. Allred, raised by a single mother, also received a football scholarship while studying at Baylor University and later played professionally for the Tennessee Titans in the NFL. After entering politics, he served in the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Obama administration.
Cruz ran in the 2016 presidential election but dropped out in the Republican primaries against Trump. He later supported Trump and became one of his staunch allies in the Senate after Trump took office in 2017.
In terms of domestic policy, Cruz is a well-known conservative within the Republican Party. He supports lower taxes, shrinking the size of the US government, school choice for parents and students, gun rights for citizens, opposes same-sex marriage, abortion except in cases where the mother’s life is endangered, illegal immigration, marijuana legalization, net neutrality, and raising the minimum wage.
Allred, like Cruz, supports gun rights and opposes illegal immigration. He also supports American businesses and has worked with Republicans to vote in favor of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) promoted by the former Trump administration.
However, Allred differs in his support for abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and raising the minimum wage on social issues. On foreign policy, both share more similarities. Cruz is known as a hawk on China within Congress, and Allred believes that the US “must stop China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world.”
Cruz pushed for the Taiwan Symbols of Sovereignty Act and the Official Engagements Assurance Act in 2021, showing strong support for Taiwan. He visited Taiwan in October 2019 and met with President Tsai Ing-wen. When Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, Cruz also expressed high support and praise for her move.
Allred also visited Taiwan in November 2021 as a member of a bipartisan congressional delegation to strengthen the US commitment to Taiwan as a strategic and democratic partner.
Both Cruz and Allred are firm supporters of Ukraine and Israel in the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Allred announced his candidacy for Cruz’s Senate seat in May 2023. In the strong competition of the Democratic primary for the Senate in March this year, Allred defeated eight other party challengers, securing victory. His main opponent within the party, State Senator Roland Gutierrez, called for strict gun control laws.
By supporting gun rights and criticizing open border policies, Allred has become estranged from the left-wing of the Democratic Party. According to the Associated Press, Allred told his supporters regarding Gutierrez’s gun control comments during the primary, “We can buy a new gun, that’s the point.”
Allred made headlines in January when he was one of 14 House Democrats who supported a resolution criticizing President Biden’s handling of border issues. Gutierrez accused Allred of “standing with extreme Republican elements.”
Allred clarified that he did not agree with all the language in the resolution but wanted to see a more urgent federal response to the border crisis.
During early voting for the Senate seat, he expressed, “For me, it is about sending a signal that, you know, what we’ve been doing is not working on (the border). We have to change some things.”
During the 2018 midterms, Allred capitalized on changing demographics in the Dallas congressional district to unseat former Republican Congressman Pete Sessions, winning his first congressional election.
Since then, the Texas Democratic Party has been trying to maintain this momentum. Jared Hockeman, the Democratic Party Chairman of Cameron County near the US-Mexico border, told the AP, “The situation in the state is changing. It takes time, and we recognize that.”
For the past 30 years, no Democrat has won a federal Senate seat in Texas, marking the longest losing streak among similar races in the US. If Allred wins in November, he would become the first Black Senator from Texas.
Cruz faced no major challengers in the Republican primary this year and quickly secured his party’s nomination. However, facing a challenge from Democrat Allred, Cruz’s re-election campaign this year seems more challenging than in 2018.
In the 2018 midterms, Cruz narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 percentage points with strong support from then-President Trump.
According to The Texas Tribune, Cruz, at a Texas delegation breakfast on the last day of the Republican National Convention on July 18th, warned his colleagues not to take his re-election for granted. Cruz referred to himself as the biggest “hunted” target of the Democrats after President Trump.
Cruz expressed concern that other Republicans lacked the same sense of urgency and severity, warning that fellow Republicans were overly confident in the party’s chances. He said, “Everyone says, look, you can’t lose, this is Texas, you’re a Republican, this is a re-election.”
Cruz pointed out that his 2018 campaign was the most expensive Senate race in US history. He added, “Every wacko leftist in New York, Chicago, or San Francisco goes online and donates to anyone running against me…Look, they are hunting us.”
Congressman Allred’s attack on Cruz is more intense than O’Rourke’s, and Allred has been ahead in fundraising. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also marked Texas as one of its best comeback opportunities.
Data tracked by The Texas Tribune indicates that by the end of June, Allred had raised about $41.2 million for his Senate campaign, $1.2 million more than Cruz. However, Cruz has more cash on hand, with $14.2 million compared to Allred’s $10.5 million.
Polls show a close race between the two candidates, with Cruz leading by a slim margin.
A survey released in mid-July by the Houston Public Affairs College and the Southern Public Affairs College of Texas showed Cruz leading Allred by 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%.
The poll also indicated that about 7% of Cruz supporters were open to changing their minds, while 8% of Allred supporters were also willing to reconsider.
According to an analysis by The Hill on August 20 based on an average of 18 polling data, Cruz leads Allred by 6.1 percentage points, 47.6% to 41.5%.
The report analysis suggests that the rapidly growing and increasingly diverse voter demographics in Texas present challenges and opportunities for both candidates. The ability to mobilize key voters and attract a broad base of voters will be crucial in determining the outcome of this Senate race.
Cruz and Allred both focus on illegal immigration and open border issues as key campaign topics. The Texas Tribune reported on July 17, “Allred is airing campaign ads sharply portraying himself as breaking with the (Democratic) party, condemning Biden’s (border policy) headlines. Cruz, on the other hand, gave a vivid speech at the Republican National Convention on Tuesday (July 16), blaming Biden’s (border) policy for several recent high-profile murders allegedly committed by immigrants who entered the US illegally. Their border-centric campaigns resonate with polls that repeatedly show Texas voters rank immigration and the border as top pressing issues.”