Recently, retired professor Leng Jiefu from Renmin University once again issued an open letter, urging the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to take the initiative to exit the stage and establish the Republic of China Federation under democratic constitutional rule. This is the third similar appeal Leng Jiefu has made in the past twelve years. Experts believe that this letter at least reflects the dissatisfaction of many within the CCP towards the current leaders and the situation is currently at a standstill.
The seven members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee have been out of the public eye since early August in Beidaihe, and as of August 13, they have not appeared publicly. Various information related to high-level politics has been circulating online, including an open letter from retired CCP officials and Renmin University professor Leng Jiefu to the CCP leadership. Leng Jiefu himself confirmed to a reporter from Dajiyuan on August 11 that he indeed wrote the open letter.
In his letter addressed to two Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia and He Wengdong, as well as to the people of the nation and overseas Chinese, Leng Jiefu mentioned hearing through WeChat that Xi Jinping is seriously ill and unable to work, leaving all party, government, and military responsibilities to Zhang Youxia and He Wengdong, and thus, he hopes for their support.
China affairs expert Wang He stated to Dajiyuan on August 13 that the internal situation at the top level of the CCP is difficult for the outside world to assess. However, as a retired CCP cadre with extensive experience, Professor Leng should have a profound understanding of the internal situation within the CCP. He believes that at least Leng Jiefu thinks that the CCP has reached a point of no return, and this outcome is visible to everyone.
Associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University, Chen Shimin, mentioned on August 13 to Dajiyuan that Professor Leng’s observations are mainly based on information from some WeChat circles, which may still be rumors. The rumors, including Xi Jinping’s health condition or internal power struggles, are abundant currently but have not been confirmed yet.
During the CCP high-level officials’ retreat in Beidaihe, a screenshot allegedly from the WeChat of CCP red second-generation figure Major General Yang Xiaoping surfaced on X platform on August 9, suggesting there is significant news domestically, stating, “let’s wait for that thunderous sound.” Another screenshot mentioned Xi Jinping might step down due to severe illness and the Beidaihe meeting decided for Hu Chunhua to replace Xi Jinping as General Secretary, with rumors also pointing to Ding Xuexiang as the General Secretary. Furthermore, circulating photos show that some military rest spots have removed billboards featuring Xi Jinping.
Leng Jiefu’s open letter mainly reiterates his previous proposals – using a federal system as a framework, urging the CCP to work with the government of the Republic of China to create the Republic of China Federation and a joint government, advising the CCP to proactively step down from one-party rule and exit the stage of history.
Wang He stated that Leng Jiefu’s letter was written with the CCP’s interests in mind, aiming to preserve the CCP’s interests to the fullest extent while enabling a peaceful transition, similar to the path taken by Mikhail Gorbachev in the former Soviet Union. The revolution that occurred in the Soviet Union at that time came from the top.
“Currently, apart from the few in power within the CCP, many believe that communism has failed and feel that the CCP’s ship is sinking, and before it sinks, they want to grab some property. But Xi Jinping still wants to keep the party and save the skin. Therefore, the internal struggle within the top CCP is directed towards Xi Jinping and those who want to keep the party. With these individuals holding immense power, many are dissatisfied and waiting for an opportunity.”
Wang He believes that Leng Jiefu choosing such a time when China’s political situation is in a highly uncertain state to persuade the current leaders to take a step towards a peaceful transition is indeed a labor of love. However, it is still unclear whether Xi Jinping has lost control over the political situation. The opposition also dares not act easily, and the situation is very tense.
Chen Shimin expressed that Leng Jiefu proposed for Xi Jinping to relinquish his position and then for the CCP to exit the stage of history. Of course, Leng Jiefu has a certain reputation, but after all, he has been retired for many years, and the related impact remains to be observed.
Chen Shimin pointed out that the key is to confirm whether Xi Jinping’s health is indeed facing significant problems, and an important time to watch is when Vietnam’s new General Secretary, Su Lin, is scheduled to visit China on August 18. “If Xi Jinping does appear, it can dispel many rumors about his health issues.”
In the aforementioned open letter, Leng Jiefu mentioned that the current situation facing the Communist Party is extremely serious. He referred to incidents such as people displaying banners on a flyover in Beijing in 2022 stating “Communist Party must step down,” followed by public demonstrations in several major cities where people raised banners saying “Down with the Communist Party”; the situation is not optimistic. The former incident likely refers to the Four Bridges protest by Peng Lifa and the latter to the “blank paper movement” against the closure in late 2022.
Wang He stated that currently, the political, economic, and various other aspects of China are in a very bleak situation, forming a historical atmosphere similar to that before a revolution. Compared to historical events in the Soviet Union, China has its unique features, with the CCP having a massive ruling elite and unparalleled control over society beyond what is described in the political fiction novel “1984.” When the common people can no longer tolerate it and become awakened, it will transform into immense pressure, causing internal division within the CCP and breaking the state apparatus’ control.
Chen Shimin noted that observing the stock market is the most accurate way to gauge whether the CCP is experiencing internal turmoil. “Because the common people or foreign capital will not play around with their money, the Chinese stock market has not been in a good state for the past six months, falling below 3000 points recently, then continuing to drop below 2900 points. The economy is indeed weak.”
Leng Jiefu wrote letters back in September 2012 to then CCP leader Hu Jintao, upcoming leader Xi Jinping, and the head of the CCP Military Commission at that time, indicating that if the escalating ethnic conflicts, Taiwan issue, and events like the “June Fourth Incident” were to be resolved, a “federal system” would be the wise choice. In September 2020, he wrote a letter to the Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Wang Yang, suggesting Xi Jinping resign from all party, government, and military positions, and China should implement a “federal system” to address the Taiwan reunification issue, ethnic minority issues, and Hong Kong issues.
This year marks his third open letter to the top CCP officials in twelve years. Based on publicly available information and what Dajiyuan has gathered, there has been no news of Leng Jiefu being arrested or punished by the CCP, which is uncommon under China’s strict censorship.
Chen Shimin mentioned that there are individuals within the CCP who are hoping for political reforms to take place, especially those dissatisfied with Xi Jinping’s direction towards dictatorship. However, whether they can rally together to form a real challenge to Xi Jinping’s power remains to be seen. Chen Shimin believes that the authorities may turn a blind eye to articles from this senior cadre, but internally in China, it will be suppressed and not allowed to circulate.
Wang He expressed that Leng Jiefu’s publication of the open letter represents the voices of a significant number of people within the CCP, and there must be substantial support behind him. “Since 2012, he has been publishing such letters without issues domestically, indicating that he has managed to maintain a balance effectively.”