A report from a Swedish think tank has assessed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increased its nuclear warheads by 90, and is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other country. The recent appointment of a high-ranking official with a background in nuclear weapons technology in the CCP has drawn attention. Experts analyzing the CCP’s nuclear weapons development trends believe that it is challenging the United States and is related to a potential future conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, corruption remains a significant constraint in the CCP’s nuclear weapons field.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in their annual report published on June 17, the CCP has added 90 warheads to its nuclear arsenal, bringing the total to 500 as of January this year, up from 410 warheads in January 2023. It is possible that 24 of these warheads have been installed on launching devices.
The report also indicates that the total number of CCP’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (currently about 238) may exceed 800 held by the United States and even the total of 1,244 held by Russia in the next 10 years.
SIPRI forecasts that the CCP’s nuclear arsenal will continue to grow, although its nuclear warhead inventory is expected to remain significantly smaller than that of the United States and Russia. The report states that the United States has 5,044 warheads, while Russia has 5,580 warheads.
Hans Kristensen, Deputy Director of SIPRI’s Nuclear Disarmament Program, said, “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other country.”
In response, CCP Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, on June 17, urged journalists to refer to the CCP’s released Defense White Paper.
Associate Professor Chen Shimin of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University told Epoch Times on June 18 that the CCP has always kept its nuclear weapons information highly confidential. Statements about the number of nuclear warheads, missiles, or submarines in possession of the CCP are actually Western evaluations, and the true nuclear capabilities cannot be confirmed.
“The CCP itself is a closed political system, and it deliberately maintains a closed status in the field of nuclear weapons. This includes its nuclear strategy, without making any public declarations, at most saying that it will not use nuclear weapons first, only for self-defense, without clear explanations.”
Chen Shimin, who has long focused on nuclear weapons, has conducted comparative analysis and research on the nuclear weapons strategies of medium nuclear states. He explained that the CCP previously had a concept called limited nuclear deterrence but has gradually abandoned it in recent years. This is due to the increasingly intense strategic competition between the US and China and Xi Jinping’s proposal of “rising in the East and falling in the West” in 2021.
He mentioned that before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, the US had begun to question whether the CCP might develop more nuclear capabilities. Therefore, there has been a significant shift in the US Department of Defense’s assessment of CCP’s nuclear weapons capabilities.
According to the US Department of Defense’s 2020 China Military Power Report, by 2030, the CCP is expected to have 500 warheads. In 2021, the assessment was doubled to 1,000 warheads. The 2022 report by the US Department of Defense suggests that by 2035, the CCP’s nuclear warheads could increase to 1,500.
Chen Shimin stated that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, it is generally considered the beginning of a new nuclear era. Before the war’s outbreak, in December 2021, US President Biden had stated that the US would not send troops to Ukraine. NATO Secretary General had also made similar statements repeatedly, which continues today.
“This is because Russia has nuclear weapons. Before the outbreak of the war, Russia had conducted a nuclear exercise, and after the war broke out, they used indirect nuclear blackmail language multiple times.”
Chen Shimin noted that the CCP believes that the US is reluctant to intervene militarily in the Ukraine situation due to Russia’s possession of nuclear weapons. Xi Jinping may also consider that if the CCP were to attack Taiwan in the future, having a nuclear capability similar to Russia and the US might deter the US from sending troops to assist Taiwan in its defense.
During the CCP’s 20th National Congress in October 2022, Xi Jinping mentioned the importance of establishing a “strong strategic deterrent force.” Chen Shimin believes that this is a declaration of nuclear intentions since the CCP previously only used more subtle terms, such as limited deterrence, but now explicitly talks about establishing a strong strategic deterrent force.
To date, the CCP has not fully disclosed its nuclear weapon policy. While the CCP officially claims to adhere to a policy of not using nuclear weapons first, US Department of Defense officials have previously indicated that many signs suggest the CCP may not adhere to this policy under special circumstances.
Chen Shimin mentioned that the US Strategic Command Commander warned in 2022 that the US may face a scenario where it is simultaneously under nuclear deterrence pressure from two major nuclear powers. Previously, it was a one-on-one situation between the US and the Soviet Union or Russia, but in the future, the US may face pressure from both Russia and the CCP at the same time. The US may be at a disadvantage as the CCP and Russia have become more closely associated since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Dr. Zhong Zhidong from the National Institute for Defense Studies of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense told Epoch Times on the 18th that it is clear that the CCP is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. While the US has a relative advantage in traditional military forces, especially in the navy and air force, the CCP’s development of nuclear weapons is an asymmetric strategic weapon challenging the US.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zhong Zhidong stated that Russia often uses so-called nuclear weapons to deter NATO, hoping NATO will keep a certain distance from the conflict. “The main goal of the CCP’s nuclear weapons development is also to deter the US and Western countries from military intervention in its areas of core interests, namely the military actions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.”
He added that to cope with the nuclear developments of China and Russia, especially the CCP’s nuclear development, the US may need to reorient its focus on nuclear weapon development and construction.
Regarding Putin, there are concerns that if faced with imminent defeat, he may resort to tactical nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons could potentially lead to a catastrophic end of the world. “The current nuclear weapons possessed by the US and Russia can destroy the entire planet in just an hour, which is extremely terrifying.”
The CCP recently formed a Science and Technology Commission, and a new official with a nuclear weapons background has been appointed to the Ministry of Science and Technology.
On May 17th, Qiu Yong was appointed Deputy Minister of Science and Technology. Qiu Yong previously served as Deputy Director and later Director of the Institute of General Engineering at the China Academy of Engineering Physics, before becoming Deputy President of the China Academy of Engineering Physics in January 2020.
The China Academy of Engineering Physics specializes in the development of nuclear weapons and has been on the US Entity List since 1997.
In December 2023, Japan revised its “Foreign End-User List” to include 36 additional organizations and institutions, including the China Academy of Engineering Physics, the primary research and manufacturing center for nuclear weapons of the CCP, and six other Chinese entities.
According to a survey by Nikkei, the China Academy of Engineering Physics is suspected of using machine tools produced by Japanese and other companies.
Additionally, the CCP established the Central Science and Technology Commission last year, with its office located within the restructured Ministry of Science and Technology. In August 2023, Chinese media reported that multiple departments of the Ministry of Science and Technology held meetings to learn from the first meeting of the Central Science and Technology Commission. However, there was no mention of who the top leader of the commission is.
The CCP previously had a National Science and Technology Leadership Group, led by then-Premier Li Keqiang, which was disbanded in 2018. If the specifications of this group correspond to the current leadership structure, it is likely that either Li Keqiang or Ding Xuexiang would lead the Central Science and Technology Commission. However, in the lineup of the CCP’s 20th National Congress Committee members, Ding Xuexiang oversees science and technology, but it remains unclear who is the top person in charge of the Science and Technology Commission.
Chen Shimin remarked that Qiu Yong being an important official in the CCP’s Ministry of Science and Technology signifies that the CCP intends to strengthen its nuclear capabilities.
Regarding the Central Science and Technology Commission, Chen Shimin noted that the leadership is determined by who has the most trust from Xi Jinping, and it is more likely to be led by Ding Xuexiang. “Neither Li Keqiang nor Ding Xuexiang has expertise in science and technology. Although Ding Xuexiang studied engineering in college, he is not a Ph.D. in science and does not have a strong scientific background; he is merely a technical bureaucrat.”
Dr. Zhong Zhidong believes that the previous Science and Technology Leadership Group of the CCP led by Li Keqiang is no longer mentioned, highlighting once again that the development of nuclear weapons is highly confidential for the CCP.
A Pentagon report from last year indicated that following reports of widespread corruption within the CCP’s Rocket Force, the reliability of the CCP’s missiles “has been called into question,” which could undermine its modernization plans.
Last year, corruption within the CCP’s Rocket Force and equipment systems was exposed, leading to the downfall of a group of military leaders, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao, and several military industry executives.
On January 6th this year, Bloomberg reported that US intelligence assessments found significant corruption within the CCP’s Rocket Force and overall defense industry, such as missiles being fueled with water instead of propellants, and operational issues with missile silo lids in western China impeding effective launches.
The CCP’s nuclear defense industry system has also begun to be reorganized. In December 2023, Wu Xiujiang, former Party Secretary and Chairman of CNNC Huanbao, was investigated, and on January 17th, Zhong Hongliang, former Party Secretary and Chairman of CNNC Shaanxi Uranium Enrichment, was also under investigation. In February this year, Li Guangchang, a member of CNNC’s Science and Technology Committee and senior advisor, was detained. Li Guangchang is an expert in nuclear fuel technology.
CNNC is a large central enterprise mainly engaged in nuclear military industry, nuclear power, nuclear fuel, and nuclear application technology businesses.
Chen Shimin mentioned that corruption within the CCP is widespread and systematic, affecting various sectors from the nuclear industry department to civilian scientific research institutions and the Rocket Force itself. The key is whether Xi Jinping chooses to crackdown, as arrests may be driven by power struggles rather than genuine anti-corruption efforts.
“Corruption will definitely restrict scientific research and the development of nuclear power. However, due to the closed nature of the nuclear weapon system, the extent of the restraining effect remains to be observed.”
Zhong Zhidong said that the Rocket Force has always been the main force behind the CCP’s nuclear weapons. But with issues involving senior figures from Wei Feng, the first commander of the Rocket Force, to Li Shangfu, who managed equipment, and several other leaders with a Rocket Force background encountering troubles, Xi Jinping’s comprehensive anti-corruption campaign reveals the sensitivity and secrecy surrounding nuclear weapons.
He believes that corruption within the CCP is pervasive, and military corruption significantly impacts the CCP’s military combat capabilities. Specifically, within the Rocket Force, even individuals responsible for aircraft carrier development have fallen from grace one after another. The public exposure of corruption is only the tip of the iceberg. “This structural corruption issue cannot be completely resolved by Xi Jinping; currently, it’s more about dealing with the challenges as they come.”
In conclusion, the developments in the CCP’s nuclear weapons program and the underlying corruption issues present complex challenges both domestically and internationally. With the rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities and the intricacies of power struggles within the party, the future of nuclear proliferation and strategic dynamics remains a critical concern for global security and stability.