A recent report by the Mainland Affairs Council of the Republic of China sheds light on the current situation in mainland China, particularly focusing on the Communist Party’s recent anti-corruption efforts within the military. Following the downfall of high-ranking officials Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, the Central Military Commission now consists of only two members: Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin. Despite this, the commission’s executive meetings continue to function normally, though front-line troops are grappling with a significant “talent gap” due to ongoing frequent reforms and adjustments.
On November 13, the Mainland Affairs Council released the third-quarter report regarding developments in mainland China. The report highlights military dynamics and regional security concerns, noting that since October, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has implemented a revised National Defense Mobilization Law. This new set of regulations lowers the thresholds for mobilization to include “development interests,” allowing for activation in response to perceived threats. Additionally, new stipulations related to “expropriation” have been added to expedite a “rapid transition between peace and war.”
Furthermore, the report mentions that the Central Military Commission’s reduced membership—now solely comprising Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin—has not hindered the operation of regular meetings. However, the base-level military forces are facing critical challenges in retaining talent amid the continual reforms.
The report also notes that the Dalian Shipyard has accelerated the construction of China’s first Type 004 nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, a move intended to bolster the nation’s deep-sea fleet. In response to these advancements, U.S. think tanks have suggested the deployment of a multinational anti-ship missile network as a counter-strategy to impose costs on China. While incursions by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) around the Taiwan Strait have slowed, there remains a concerted effort to expand activities in Taiwan’s eastern maritime zones through the use of maritime surveillance ships and militia vessels, creating a façade of territorial authority.
Internally, the political landscape within China has also been notably active, as indicated in the report. The CCP convened its 20th Central Committee’s fifth plenary session, emphasizing stringent party governance. This led to the passage of a significant decision aimed at furthering comprehensive party discipline, positioning Xi Jinping’s achievements alongside those of Mao Zedong. The party has expelled 33 members, and the number of attendees absent from the meeting reached a new high under Xi’s leadership.
Additionally, high-ranking officials in the State Council have been urged to address corporate debts, regulate enterprise enforcement, and enhance disaster prevention and safety measures. New regulations concerning immigration management have been released to strengthen national security and regulate technology exports. The reshuffling of local party committees has commenced, with adjustments affecting 18 senior leaders across ten jurisdictions. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced that in the first three quarters of this year, 800,000 cases were investigated, resulting in disciplinary actions against 680,000 individuals, including over 100 officials at the provincial or ministerial level, maintaining a high-pressure anti-corruption stance.
In terms of the economic situation, the report highlights that real estate development investments have decreased by 20.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year. Meanwhile, government debt has surged by 11.2% year-on-year over the past eight months, resulting in continuing financial risk and a notable youth unemployment rate of 18% as of September.
The social situation within China has also been alarming. The report discusses severe flooding caused by consecutive typhoons affecting regions in East and Central China, with local governmental bodies waiting for central instructions, contributing to delays in disaster relief efforts. Additionally, significant landslides near the Tibet border have resulted in casualties, with official updates on the casualties lacking. The information blackout surrounding these disasters raises concerns about transparency, as does the restriction on foreign media coverage. Industrial fires at shoe factories in Jinjiang and a shipyard in Qingdao further expose the systemic deficiencies in oversight and the challenges in implementing effective reforms.
Moreover, in Xinjiang, the publication of “The Two Histories of Xinjiang” aims to reinforce historical narratives and ideological control. The enforcement of the “National Unity and Progress Promotion Law” and the revision of Tibetan language teaching materials have raised suspicions regarding the potential erosion of Tibetan cultural heritage.