In a recent article published in The Washington Times, Chinese expert Yu Maochun from the U.S. think tank Hudson Institute advocated that the U.S. and its allies should consider planning for the “post-CCP era” as part of strategic contingency preparation. He emphasized the importance of thinking ahead about how the world would respond if the Chinese Communist Party were to suddenly collapse. Drawing parallels to the political upheaval at the end of the Cold War, Yu Maochun raised concerns about the risks associated with nuclear weapons, military factions, economic uncertainties, and the avoidance of a Russian-style transition.
Yu Maochun stressed that the planning should not involve the U.S. designing a new political system for China, as “the future of China can only be determined by the Chinese people themselves.” The goal is to create conditions for the Chinese people to establish a free, peaceful, rule of law, and constitutional China.
Several Chinese scholars and China experts have expressed their views on the possible scenarios surrounding the collapse of the CCP and issues related to regime transition. Feng Chongyi, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, pointed out different potential pathways for the downfall of the CCP, including models similar to the Soviet Union’s collapse or internal power struggles within the party.
Feng Chongyi noted that the communist ideology has long been discredited, and Xi Jinping’s authoritarian push as a privileged second-generation red has alienated various social classes, leading to widespread calls for preparation for a “post-Communist China” due to the regime’s potential instability.
The current economic downturn, triggered by a real estate crisis escalating into financial and debt crises with waves of unemployment and bankruptcies, further compounds the regime’s legitimacy crisis. Feng Chongyi emphasized the importance of public trust in a regime’s legitimacy and the potential for civil unrest, military defections, and political upheavals as part of China’s political transformation.
The purges within the party under Xi Jinping have led to significant internal friction and eroded trust among party members. Feng Chongyi suggested that these disgruntled factions might resort to assassination attempts or coups, which could further destabilize the regime.
Another possible scenario discussed by Feng Chongyi is a military conflict initiated by the CCP in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, provoking the U.S. and democratic world, which might lead to targeted actions against top Chinese leadership.
He also highlighted the role of overseas dissidents and intellectuals in pushing for a new political system in China and the importance of their involvement in shaping a democratic future. In the event of Xi Jinping’s assassination or removal during a conflict, various factions would vie for control, presenting opportunities for a peaceful constitutional transition with input from international actors.
He referenced the 1911 revolution in China as a model for democratic transformation and stressed the significance of empowering civil society and promoting democratic ideals for the country’s future.
Echo Sheng, a Canadian writer and China expert, criticized Xi Jinping’s military-centric approach and highlighted potential power struggles within the military leadership, indicating a possible internal conflict over strategies such as attacking Taiwan.
Regarding the implications of the CCP’s collapse, Echo Sheng emphasized that the leadership vacuum left by Xi Jinping’s sudden absence could lead to power struggles and temporary uprisings within the party, challenging the existing power structure.
In light of these potential challenges, she urged the Western world, especially the U.S., to conduct thorough scenario analyses and anticipate the various developments that China may undergo in the future.