South Korea’s military has indicated that North Korea may still be preparing to deploy additional troops to Russia, although there are currently no signs of imminent troop movements. The South Korean intelligence department assesses that through the accumulation of combat data on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and technical support from Russia, North Korea may enhance its missile capabilities, intensifying the threat to the Korean Peninsula.
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) under the South Korean Ministry of National Defense stated in a report submitted to National Force Party legislator Yoo Yong-weon that North Korea continues to prepare for deployment of troops, but there are no signs of imminent reinforcements.
The agency mentioned that it is collaborating with intelligence agencies of relevant countries to monitor the situation.
This is the first public response from the South Korean military since North Korea began deploying troops to Russia in October 2024 concerning reports of Pyongyang potentially deploying troops again.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has deepened. According to assessments from South Korea, Ukraine, and Western countries, North Korea began supplying ammunition and missiles to Russia in 2023 and deployed troops to Russia starting in 2024.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in July that Russia is preparing to receive another 30,000 North Korean troops; he further mentioned on August 9 that North Korea has decided to deploy between 30,000 to 50,000 soldiers to Russian territory.
However, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied these claims last week, stating they are “completely baseless.”
According to estimates from the South Korean Defense Intelligence Agency, North Korea has deployed over 16,000 soldiers to Russia, with many believed to have been killed or injured. The South Korean intelligence department estimates that in terms of container load capacity, the total amount of ammunition supplied by North Korea to Russia is equivalent to over 15 million rounds of 152mm shells.
“The Korea Herald” pointed out that the aforementioned number of troops deployed and ammunition supply estimates match the figures released in March of this year.
In addition to personnel and weapons supply, the South Korean military is also concerned about the potential impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on North Korean weapon development. The Defense Intelligence Agency assesses that through the accumulation of combat data from the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and possible technical and component support from Russia, the accuracy and other performance aspects of North Korean missiles may have improved.
Yoo Yong-weon warned: “We should not underestimate this possibility: North Korea’s accumulated combat experience and data from the Russian-Ukrainian war may pose a threat to the Korean Peninsula.”
The South Korean military also assessed that North Korea’s short-range weapons targeting South Korea, including the Hwasong-11 series ballistic missiles and 600mm multiple rocket launchers, are nearing completion. In terms of medium to long-range weapons, North Korea has developed the Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missile capable of reaching US territory Guam and is preparing for operational deployment; the Hwasong-16 hypersonic missile is still under development.
The South Korean Defense Intelligence Agency stated that North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles have the ability to reach the US mainland, but critical technologies like atmospheric reentry of warheads have yet to be verified due to the high trajectory of test firings.