In early July, the Chinese Communist Party conducted a test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a simulated training warhead into the Pacific Ocean, bypassing normal international procedures. This action has drawn condemnation from several countries and regions including the United States, Japan, and Australia. Japan is now seeking new ways to strengthen the “nuclear umbrella” provided by the United States in response to the escalating threat posed by China.
The missile, believed to be a JL-3 ballistic missile with a range of over 10,000 kilometers, was launched by a Chinese nuclear submarine on July 6 and landed in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Tuvalu in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone.
China has not officially disclosed the type of missile launched, claiming it was part of routine annual training and not directed at any specific country. However, the lack of prior notification and unclear information on the precise impact area have left the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island nations ill-prepared to respond adequately.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated, “China’s military activities lack transparency and have become a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community.”
Against the backdrop of China’s increasing offensive nuclear capabilities, Japan is actively exploring ways to enhance the extended deterrence provided by the United States. Former National Security Agency Director Masataka Okano emphasized the importance of relying on the U.S. deterrent capabilities, given Japan’s geopolitical challenges in close proximity to China, Russia, and North Korea.
Australia’s incoming Ambassador to Japan Andrew Shearer highlighted the growing deployment of traditional weapons and threatening nuclear capabilities in the region during a seminar. Regular meetings between the U.S. and Japan discuss extended deterrence, focusing on China’s rapid nuclear expansion and conducting related war scenarios.
Faced with continuous military provocations from China, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Innovation Party have proposed revisions to the “Three Security Documents” presented to Prime Minister Sanae Takamichi. These revisions aim to strengthen the specifics of extended deterrence and review Japan’s long-standing “Three Non-Nuclear Principles.”
The “Three Security Documents” include the National Security Strategy, Defense Guidelines, and Defense Build-up Program. The Innovation Party proposes evaluating the principle of not introducing nuclear weapons based on current circumstances, while maintaining the principles of not possessing or producing nuclear weapons.
The debate extends to the need for Japan to equip the next generation of power submarines with vertical launch systems, acknowledging the advanced capability and strategic advantages of nuclear-powered submarines for tracking Chinese vessels in the region.
While the LDP emphasizes the necessity of enhancing the credibility of extended deterrence through close collaboration with the U.S., specifics on amending the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” have not been outlined. The Innovation Party insists on providing feasible solutions to crucial concerns like nuclear submarines and the non-nuclear principles.
Japan’s policy of not introducing nuclear weapons dates back to 2010 when the exception mechanism for potential emergency scenarios was established. Current Prime Minister Takamichi’s administration maintains this stance, with a majority within the party believing there is no urgent need to revise the non-nuclear principles. However, continued aggressive military actions from China could potentially sway Takamichi to adopt the Innovation Party’s proposal for amendment.