On May 16th, Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing and was received with high honors by the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. As expected, China and Russia signed a series of cooperation agreements and issued a joint statement to continue strengthening their cooperation “unlimitedly”. However, the surface noises could not conceal the underlying issues, one of which is related to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November.
Andrei Kortunov, Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Academic Committee, wrote on a Chinese observation website that “Putin’s visit to China this time has six major reasons”, with the fourth reason being how to deal with “friction with the West”. Kortunov believed that Xi Jinping, who had just finished his trip to three European countries, would share his “impressions of the visit” with Putin. He felt that Putin was highly skeptical of European countries’ “strategic autonomy” from the United States, while Xi hoped that even if Sino-U.S. relations continued to deteriorate, cooperation between Beijing and major European countries as well as the EU could still be maintained.
Kortunov stated that although Putin and Xi had different views on Europe, they would have frank exchanges on political trends in Europe and the United States (including the possible outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November), which should be an important issue on the agenda of this meeting of the leaders of China and Russia.
Indeed, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in a few months not only affects the hearts of millions of Americans but also touches the hearts of governments in Europe, China, Russia, and other countries around the world. For China and Russia, the election outcome is particularly crucial. For example, if Trump, who is currently popular, is re-elected, what policies will he adopt towards China and Russia? Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue? Will the “friendship boat” between China and Russia remain stable? How should China and Russia respond to possible changes?
Previously, Putin clearly stated that compared to Trump, he preferred Biden to be re-elected as U.S. President. This apparently was a reverse statement. Because whether during Trump’s first term or now, Trump seems not as “unfriendly” towards Russia as he is towards the Chinese Communist Party, but rather adopts a tough “wooing” policy.
During Trump’s presidency on September 5, 2020, after the truth of the false “RussiaGate” was revealed, Trump said intriguingly during a regular White House press briefing, expressing three meanings: Firstly, we (the United States) closely cooperate with many countries on many issues, our actions towards Russia are tougher than any other country, and President Putin can now tell you this. But despite this, I get along well with Russia.
Secondly, I get along well with all countries in the world, except for China (the Communist Party). This is my choice because they caused a virus pandemic that I am very unhappy with, very unhappy. Their actions in the United States, Europe, and other regions of the world are really terrible.
Thirdly, emphasizing that he gets along well with President Putin.
The key point of this speech is that on the one hand Trump deliberately emphasizes his good relationship with Russia, which is rare in addressing his relationship with Putin, and on the other hand implies that because of the epidemic issue, his relationship with Beijing, with Xi Jinping, is not so good. This is following his statement on August 11 that after the pandemic, his view of Xi had changed, and after not talking for a long time, once again, he stated that the once “friendship” between Trump and Xi, the once “very good relationship” is gone and will not return.
Since Trump took office, Putin has been hoping to improve U.S.-Russia relations. In December 2019, the Russian Foreign Minister visited the United States and at a subsequent press briefing, Lavrov suggested that having good relations with the United States was in Russia’s interest, politically and economically. Lavrov also specifically pointed out that compared to the huge gap in military data between China and Russia and the United States, the Chinese Communist Party is not on the same level as Russia and the U.S., whether in terms of (weapon) quantity or the structure of their nuclear arsenals, the warnings implied in the words are understood by everyone. In addition, Russia has also agreed to the U.S.’s idea of allowing China to participate in arms control negotiations.
From March to April 2020, Trump and Putin had several friendly interactions within a month, such as informing each other about the measures their respective countries were taking to combat the epidemic and enhancing cooperation between the two countries. On April 25th, Trump and Putin even issued a joint statement, stating the intention to “abandon differences” and “build trust and cooperate towards greater accomplishments.”
As the Trump administration pointed out that the Chinese Communist Party is the world’s biggest threat, and after implementing comprehensive countermeasures and building a global anti-communist alliance, Trump’s policy towards Russia appears to aim at preventing a Russia-China alliance, thus limiting the U.S. in significant issues.
At that time, Putin, who understood the evil nature of communist regimes, began to distance himself from and be cautious of Beijing in order to improve U.S.-Russia relations. For instance, in response to the U.S.-China trade war, the Kremlin spokesperson stated before Xi Jinping visited Russia, “This is not our war.” Regarding Beijing’s anti-U.S. rhetoric and actions, Russia mostly remained silent, occasionally expressing support or politely declining, maintaining ceremonial gestures. As for China’s high-profile “Belt and Road” initiative, Moscow gave due respect, but action was seldom seen.
Therefore, Trump has targeted the Chinese Communist Party as the biggest threat in the U.S.-Russia-China triangle and has adopted a strategy to drive a wedge between China and Russia. On November 14, 2020, the U.S. State Department retweeted a video of Secretary of State Pompeo’s speech, placing the Chinese communist regime alongside Iranian terrorism, implying that the U.S. had long viewed the Chinese Communist Party as a terror regime, far more evil than Iran. On the 17th, the U.S. State Department released the report “The Elements of the China Challenge,” divided into several sections: China’s challenges, China’s behavior, the ideological roots of China’s behavior, China’s vulnerabilities, and how the U.S. will ensure freedom. The report indicated that the U.S. government, across party lines, was fully prepared to address the challenges posed by China.
After Trump’s defeat due to election fraud in the U.S. presidential election, the policies adopted by the Biden administration towards Russia prompted Moscow to once again turn its focus to Beijing. Especially after facing strong sanctions from the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China became an important ally of Russia in various aspects such as politics, economics, diplomacy, high technology, and military.
Recently, after warnings from the Biden administration to China to stop supporting Russia yielded no results, a series of sanctions were imposed. The situation had given headaches to the Zhongnanhai leadership (Chinese leadership compound in Beijing), but they chose to continue supporting Russia. After Putin’s re-election as president, he promptly rushed to Beijing, most likely to discuss strategies for coping with sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, thereby taking China-Russia relations to a new high.
However, who can guarantee that if Trump is re-elected in November the relationship between China and Russia will not change? Firstly, Trump and his key staff members will not change their perception that “the Chinese Communist Party is the biggest threat in the world.” After the Biden administration significantly increased tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles, Trump stated that “the Biden administration must also impose tariffs on other cars and more Chinese products because China is eating our lunch.” This implies that if elected, he would continue a tough policy towards China in trade and other aspects.
Secondly, regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump has repeatedly said that if elected, he could end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within a day. How will he do that? Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who had just met with Trump, indicated that if Trump were re-elected, he would not provide any funding to Ukraine, which would hasten the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This also seems to explain why Putin is more hopeful for Trump’s re-election.
However, strangely, in a statement released by Trump’s campaign team after the meeting between the two leaders, it only mentioned that Trump and Orban discussed issues such as protecting border security and did not mention the Ukraine issue. Therefore, ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict might not be as simple as withholding funds from Ukraine. Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and current President of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, believed that if Trump were re-elected, “It might disappoint the Russians very much.”
Trump, who is skilled in negotiation and using economic means to achieve political goals, how he will resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially how he will deal a heavy blow to critical supporters of Russia, Iran, and Hamas – China, dividing Sino-Russian relations, is highly anticipated. However, one thing is certain: if Trump is re-elected, in the second term, U.S.-China relations will further deteriorate, even decouple comprehensively, and the Chinese Communist Party will face more hits from Washington, more restrictions in the economic and technological fields. As for the once seemingly solid China-Russia relationship, what changes will it undergo?