Zhou Xiaohui: US-Japan-Philippines Relations Escalate Again, Beijing Unusually Silent

In the eyes of many Chinese and Americans, whenever the United States takes action against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the CCP always jumps out to express “protest” in a fierce and timid manner, performing fearless in front of its people. Although there is no follow-up after the protest, confirming that it is just a verbal skirmish, the United States continues to do as it pleases.

For example, on the late night of August 2, 2022, Xie Feng, the Deputy Minister of the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, urgently summoned the U.S. Ambassador to China, Burns, on behalf of the CCP to “solemnly protest and strongly protest” the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. However, after Pelosi landed, Beijing backed down.

In December 2019, Qin Gang, the then Deputy Minister of the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, met with the charge d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in China, Kori Wells, to make a solemn representation and strong protest regarding the U.S. House of Representatives passing the “2019 Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act,” urging the U.S. to immediately correct its mistakes and stop interfering in China’s internal affairs regarding Xinjiang.

In November of the same year, CCP officials met with the temporary chargé d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in China to protest the U.S. passing the Hong Kong-related bill and protest the U.S. support for Hong Kong protesters.

On September 21, 2018, Zheng Zeguang, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the CCP, summoned the U.S. Ambassador to China, Branstad, to make a solemn representation and protest against the United States citing U.S. domestic law to impose sanctions on the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission of the CCP and its responsible persons.

However, during the U.S.-Japan summit and the U.S.-Philippines-Japan summit held in Washington in April this year, where the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines further strengthened their alliance and targeted the CCP. On the 15th, there was no mention of the term “protest” during the meeting between Ma Zhaoxu, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the CCP, and U.S. personnel.

According to a report on the website of the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ma Zhaoxu “met” rather than “summoned” the U.S. Ambassador to China, Burns, and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Conda. The two sides first “agreed to continue to implement the ‘Old San Francisco Vision’ and maintain exchanges at all levels to further stabilize and develop Sino-U.S. relations,” after which Ma Zhaoxu raised concerns about the recent U.S. advancement of the “Indo-Pacific strategy” against the CCP and the series of erroneous words and actions around China, especially forming a clique with the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines and disrupting the situation in the South China Sea, showing a firm stance, and “demanding that the U.S. refrain from engaging in confrontation, disrupting peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The CCP did not mention how the U.S. Ambassador responded, and it is estimated that the U.S. Ambassador also knew that this was just a routine performance by CCP diplomats, and there was no need to waste words reiterating the U.S. position.

In fact, the recent actions of the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines have caused quite a stir. On April 10, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a state visit to the United States, reaching at least more than 70 cooperation intentions with President Biden in defense and security, space development, technological innovation, and many other areas. Japan and the U.S. have broken the old framework that has maintained the alliance for more than 70 years, further elevating the level of the Japan-U.S. alliance relationship.

On the 11th, Kishida delivered a speech in the U.S. Congress, further highlighting the danger posed by the CCP to the world. He stated that the current era is at a historical turning point, the post-World War II international order established by the U.S. is facing challenges from countries with completely different values and principles, and freedom and democracy are under threat globally. Therefore, the U.S. needs to play a core role in the international arena.

He explicitly pointed out that the CCP’s “foreign stance, military movements, etc., not only pose a threat to Japan’s peace and security but also present the greatest strategic challenge to peace and stability of the entire international community,” “there is no reason to let the U.S. single-handedly maintain international order in a helpless state,” “as the closest friend and partner of the U.S., in order to defend freedom, the people of Japan will stand with the U.S.! This is not only for the people of the United States and Japan but also for the people of the world.”

The significance of Kishida’s visit to the U.S. is widely recognized, following which not only will there be increased integration of U.S.-Japan military forces, but Japan will also increase its defense budget, jointly manufacture cutting-edge weapons with the U.S., and enable the Japan Self-Defense Forces to have a counterattack capability. In addition, the U.S., Australia, and Japan will integrate their defense systems against CCP’s air defense missiles, and the U.S. and Japan will enhance cooperation in space and artificial intelligence.

On the 11th, leaders of the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines also held a meeting at the White House to discuss how to strengthen cooperation to counter the CCP. Following the summit, the White House emphasized strengthening maritime cooperation with the Philippines. In addition, the U.S. and the Philippines military conducted their first joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission in the South China Sea. “Our joint efforts demonstrate a determination to strengthen bilateral security relations, expand multilateral cooperation and training among like-minded partners.”

The main target of the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Philippines cooperation is undoubtedly the CCP, which is definitely bad news for the CCP. Ma Zhaoxu’s statement about “forming a clique with the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines and disrupting the situation in the South China Sea” reflects the CCP’s inner worries and anger. Interestingly, the angry and worried CCP did not issue a “strong protest” as before but only made its position known, making the outside world feel that the CCP has softened considerably.

The reason why the CCP “showed weakness” should be that the CCP no longer has the confidence to protest too much. On the one hand, with the domestic economy in a recession, a soaring unemployment rate, and protests erupting continuously, with numerous incidents of social unrest, people from top to bottom in China are very dissatisfied with the high-ranking officials in Zhongnanhai and the CCP, and no one believes the CCP’s words. There is a high possibility of a major event occurring in Chinese society at any time.

On the other hand, the U.S.’s determination to curb the CCP is even more resolute. In addition to strengthening sanctions on the CCP in the economic and high-tech fields, it also joins forces with allies in Asia-Pacific and Europe to collectively resist the CCP and isolate it. The CCP’s image in the international community has long been negative.

Infamous internationally and needing to rely on intensifying stability maintenance to suppress the people within the CCP’s regime, in order to continue maintaining its rule, the CCP must show a softer side on the surface, change its tone, and hope that the U.S. will not further exert pressure.

It is worth noting that in addition to expressing dissatisfaction with the U.S.-Japan-Philippines alliance, during the meeting, Ma Zhaoxu also reiterated CCP’s positions on Taiwan, trade and technology, and cultural exchanges, continuing to “demand that the U.S. stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, stop obstructing China’s development, stop unreasonably sanctioning Chinese companies, and stop pressuring China’s trade, technology, science,” and more. It seems that the U.S.’s military deterrence against the CCP in the Taiwan Strait, sanctions against CCP enterprises and high-tech, have already caused significant pain to the CCP.

However, the CCP’s hopes are likely to be difficult to realize, especially with the U.S. election in November. If Trump takes back the White House again, the hardline anti-CCP faction in the U.S. will unleash even more intense attacks because in their view, eliminating the CCP and achieving victory is the only choice for the United States.