The current Communist regime in China is facing internal and external challenges in various aspects such as politics, economy, military, diplomacy, and high technology. Particularly, its support for Russia has led Western countries like the United States and Europe to increase sanctions, dealing a heavy blow to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Additionally, the exposure of domestic local government debt issues and the suffering of people’s livelihoods in the economic downturn have made it difficult for the CCP’s high-level patchwork efforts to be effective.
However, the CCP shows no intention of changing its approach and instead aims to unite with “southern countries” to counterbalance the West. On June 12, CCP leader Xi Jinping delivered a video speech at the opening ceremony of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, emphasizing China’s consistent identity as part of the “Global South.” Xi has previously called for enhanced unity and cooperation among Global South countries to uphold common interests and reform the global governance system.
According to the CCP’s rhetoric, the “Global South” is not merely a geographical or economic concept but a collective of emerging market countries and developing nations. It represents an identity formed based on similar historical experiences, current development stages, common development goals, and shared political aspirations.
In the CCP’s view, the “Global South” has reshaped the world’s economic landscape and is no longer the “silent majority” in international politics. It is seen as a key force in reshaping the international order and a beacon of hope amid global changes. Being the largest developing country in the world, China is deemed a natural member of the Global South camp and, in the CCP’s eyes, a rightful “leader.”
Nevertheless, the CCP fails to acknowledge that China’s rapid economic growth over the past three decades has largely benefited from three major dividends: the dividends of reform and opening up, globalization, and demographic. Globalization brought capital and technology, the baby boom from 1962 to 1976 brought labor force, and reform and opening up combined the three elements of capital, labor, and technology through institutional changes, unleashing the massive potential for wealth creation by 1.4 billion people.
In other words, without Western capital and technology, without the United States agreeing for China to join the World Trade Organization, and without the fantasy of Western ideas such as “economic development will lead China to democracy” and “internet access will bring freedom of the press to China,” China’s wealth accumulation would not have been as rapid and substantial.
However, the CCP’s backtracking on reforms and various regressive actions in the thirty years since reform and opening up have left the Chinese people without freedoms such as press, speech, and belief. The CCP not only uses big data surveillance on democratic movements and anti-government speech but also resorts to violent repression and persecution of dissidents. Similarly, the CCP chooses to disregard international rules whenever possible.
All these demonstrate that the Western idea of promoting democracy through economic means has utterly failed. Anti-communism has become mainstream in the United States, and more European countries are following suit after realizing the harm posed by the CCP. As the newly established U.S. House Committee on U.S.-China Strategic Competition Chair Gallagher remarked in 2023, “They [CCP] took advantage of our goodwill, but that wishful thinking era has ended. The committee will not allow the CCP to make us complacent or yield.”
The awakening of the United States and Europe is leading them to close the doors they once opened to the CCP. Does the CCP truly believe that by uniting with developing countries in the “Global South,” it can confront the West? How significant is the CCP’s influence over these “southern countries”?
Coincidentally, shortly after Xi reiterated that China remains part of the “Global South,” the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center released a report. The report stated that the CCP has been exporting authoritarian governance models and communist ideology to developing countries through training programs under the guise of business schools.
According to the report, in 2021 and 2022, the CCP government funded 795 online seminars to promote its authoritarian regime’s control over economic development as crucial. Over twenty thousand people, mainly from emerging countries in the Global South, particularly African countries, participated in these activities.
The report also revealed that the CCP government is attempting to alter global discourse by influencing overseas media to report positively on China. The CCP also shares surveillance technologies and methods used to monitor citizens and suppress dissidents with other countries.
By promoting China’s development model, governance style, and ideology to Global South countries, the CCP aims to increase its influence and followers to avoid international isolation and confront the West, especially at present. A recent example is the CCP’s behind-the-scenes lobbying of numerous African countries to boycott the peace summit in Switzerland.
To a large extent, the CCP’s influence over Global South countries is grounded in financial incentives. The so-called “friendship” the CCP touts is built on a foundation of money. As jokingly stated by a former Indian ambassador to Russia, the CCP has “no friends.” Most of the relationships the CCP has are bound by interests.
If the CCP decreases its financial largesse to other countries and its economy regresses to the levels of the 1990s under sanctions from the United States and Europe, how many developing countries would still be willing to follow the CCP? Moreover, what scenarios will unfold as Western countries increase their support for Global South countries?
Therefore, Xi’s revival of the “United Third World” era and renewed emphasis on China being part of the “Global South” are wishful thinking. This indirectly reflects that the CCP is indeed running out of options.