According to the latest report from Russia’s TASS news agency, based on data from the Chinese statistical department, in May 2024, China purchased enriched uranium and other radioactive elements, isotopes, and compounds from Russia totaling 233 million US dollars, with enriched uranium accounting for 231.5 million US dollars and other compounds for 1.4 million US dollars, reaching a historical high since 2015.
The data also shows that in April of this year, the amount of enriched uranium purchased by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was nearly 70 million US dollars. Due to the sharp increase in purchases in May, in the first five months of this year, Beijing purchased uranium and other elements from Moscow totaling 311 million US dollars. By the end of last year, Russia had sold radioactive elements worth 440 million US dollars to the CCP, with enriched uranium accounting for 418 million US dollars.
Among the world’s nuclear fuel suppliers, Russia’s state atomic energy corporation is “the largest supplier of enriched uranium in the global market”. Despite facing severe sanctions from the West after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia continues to export large quantities of enriched uranium products. According to analysis of publicly available statistics by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in the UK, countries around the world imported around 12.9 billion US dollars’ worth of enriched uranium from Russia in 2021, with the import figures for 2022 and 2023 increasing to 20.3 billion US dollars and 27 billion US dollars respectively. In 2022, the Russian state atomic energy corporation supplied approximately 30% of the enriched uranium purchased by EU countries and 23% of the enriched uranium purchased by US utility companies.
To reduce reliance on Russian nuclear fuel, Western countries are striving to increase their self-sufficiency in nuclear capabilities, including enhancing uranium enrichment capacity and establishing new locations for producing nuclear fuel. At the same time, China is increasing its purchases from Russia, having acquired over 700 million US dollars’ worth of enriched uranium from last year to this year. What are China’s intentions?
The enriched uranium supplied by Russia to China can be used as nuclear fuel in nuclear reactors and is also one of the main materials for manufacturing nuclear weapons.
China is a major nuclear power with 55 operational nuclear reactors and 22 under construction. From 2022 to May this year, the CCP imported a large amount of enriched uranium from Russia, with one goal being to increase domestic strategic stockpiles to meet nuclear fuel demands. The China National Nuclear Corporation has previously stated that “it is necessary to expand domestic strategic reserves of enriched uranium to address price fluctuations, supply chain risks, and other challenges.”
Another goal is the production of nuclear weapons. Nuclear cooperation between China and Russia dates back to the 1950s when the Soviet Union provided support in nuclear materials, technology, and expertise. With tensions between the two countries, Soviet assistance in the nuclear field was halted, but cooperation resumed in the 21st century. In recent years, cooperation has been strengthened, notably highlighted by agreements signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia in March 2023 on developing fast neutron reactors and closed nuclear fuel cycle systems.
On May 4th, the Russian government officially approved the export of new nuclear fuel with a maximum uranium-235 enrichment of 30.4% to China’s demonstration project for the Xiapu fast reactor in Fujian for the next 3 years. The two fast neutron reactors in this project have a generating capacity of 600 megawatts.
In natural uranium, uranium-238, which is not easily fissionable, accounts for 99.2%, while uranium-235, the fuel for conventional reactors and the only naturally fissile material, accounts for only 0.8%. By approving the export of uranium-235 to China, Russia has saved China the process of uranium enrichment.
With higher purity enriched uranium, China can produce plutonium through fast neutron reactors, and plutonium is the primary fissile material for producing nuclear weapons. Recent deepening nuclear cooperation between China and Russia has raised concerns, as Patty-Jane Geller, an analyst at the American Foreign Policy Council’s Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Program, pointed out in a report by Voice of America last year, “The increased fuel provided by Russia means the more fuel provided by Russia, the more plutonium China produces. The more plutonium China produces, the more nuclear weapons it can make.”
However, Alex Wellerstein, an American nuclear historian and creator of the online nuclear weapon simulator NUKEMAP, holds a different view. He told Voice of America that the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimates that China already possesses about 14 tons of highly enriched uranium and about 3 tons of separated plutonium, which is sufficient to produce as many nuclear warheads as possible.
According to a 2023 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China is the world’s third-largest nuclear weapons state, with the number of nuclear weapons increasing from 350 in 2022 to 410 in 2023 and continuing to rise. The report suggests that once China deems it necessary, there is potential to expand its intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal to the level of the US and Russia by 2030.
The US Department of Defense’s 2023 “China Military Power Report” predicts that mainland China’s nuclear weapon production rate will accelerate, with up to 1,500 warheads by 2035. While China has neither directly denied nor acknowledged this, it emphasizes that recent developments in nuclear weapons are defensive in nature.
Clearly, the increase in the number of CCP nuclear warheads is directly related to its strengthened cooperation with Russia in the nuclear industry and the significant imports of enriched uranium from Russia.
In addition to the aforementioned purposes, one of the aims of the CCP is to profit from exporting enriched uranium due to Western sanctions on Russia. There may also be a possibility of a secret agreement between the Russian state atomic energy corporation and the China National Nuclear Corporation to export enriched uranium through the un-sanctioned Chinese channel, allowing China to profit.
A report by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in the UK shows that in 2022, China exported only 97 tons of enriched uranium, a slight increase from the 95 tons in 2021. However, in 2023, China’s export of enriched uranium increased significantly by 288% compared to 2021, reaching 368 tons. The sharp increase in China’s enriched uranium exports in 2023 is mainly attributed to the American market. According to Chinese statistics, China exported 175 tons to the US, but the US data shows that they imported as much as 293 tons of enriched uranium from China.
Furthermore, the China National Nuclear Corporation has signed a supply contract with the Korea Water and Nuclear Power Company for the years 2026 to 2031. What lies behind this agreement?
Clearly, Western countries, including the US and Europe, need to remain vigilant regarding the sharp increase in China’s imports of enriched uranium, not only to prevent the proliferation of CCP nuclear warheads but also to avoid shifting reliance from Russia to China in the enriched uranium supply chain, which poses its own set of risks.