As expected, US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Beijing has been met with cold reception and little progress. Whether it’s his meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong, or listening to Xi Jinping’s “reprimand,” both sides are still talking past each other. The US and China remain deeply divided on issues such as Chinese support for Russia, the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and combating the widespread use of fentanyl.
Following his meeting with Xi, Blinken revealed some of the discussions during the press conference, expressing in the strongest terms possible the US view on China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He pointed out that China supplied dual-use military items to Russia for the production of rockets, drones, tanks, and other weapons that are used to “kill innocent children, women, and men.” He also hinted that the US and Europe are losing patience with Beijing’s refusal to stop supporting Russia.
It is noteworthy that Blinken explicitly stated, “Without China’s support, Russia’s attack on Ukraine would be difficult to sustain,” and the US and Europe will not ignore China’s support for Russia. He mentioned that if Beijing does not take action to solve the issue, the US is prepared to take further steps, which could include sanctions and export controls on more than 100 Chinese entities.
This warning from Blinken, following a serious warning issued to China by US Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding support for Russia, can be seen as a form of ultimatum. It conveys that the US is not bluffing and will not allow China to continue military assistance to Russia without facing consequences.
One of the options under “let China bear the consequences” may involve cutting off the connection of some Chinese banks with the global financial system, possibly removing them from the SWIFT system, as these banks assist Chinese companies in supporting Russia’s aggressive war. This information, released by The Wall Street Journal before Blinken’s visit to China, does not appear unfounded.
From the responses of Chinese officials and the denial by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yang Tao on April 26 that China has not done anything to fuel the fire or exploit the situation, criticizing the US for “slandering and pressuring,” it is clear that China is unwilling to align with the US and will continue to support Russia. A signal of Beijing’s stance was seen as no Chinese officials bid farewell to Blinken as he left the country. It appears that China is angry at Blinken’s outspokenness and threats.
Interestingly, while Chinese official media avoided reporting Blinken’s comments on “taking new measures and imposing sanctions on China” and the possibility of the US “cutting off the connection of some Chinese banks with the global financial system,” Russia’s state-owned news agency reported these two developments on the same day, directly quoting Blinken and The Wall Street Journal.
Additionally, on April 25, a day before Blinken’s visit to China, Russian President Putin announced at an event with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs that he plans to visit China in May this year. Putin did not specify the exact date of the visit, marking it as his first official visit within his new term.
Putin’s choice to announce his visit to China at this time is not coincidental but intentional. It is a way to demonstrate his strong ties with China on one hand to the US and Europe and on the other hand, to signal to the top leaders in Beijing not to betray Russian interests.
On the same day, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova commented that the US is trying to sabotage the strategic partnership between Russia and China but stressed that bilateral cooperation between Russia and China transcends the single-center framework of the Cold War and is not influenced by external conditions.
Also on that day, Russian news agency TASS reported Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov’s statement that recent strengthened cooperation between Russia and China in many areas has greatly infuriated the US, and he believes Beijing understands this and will not pretend to agree with the US on any terms that harm Russian interests.
Following Putin’s announcement of his visit to China and Blinken’s trip to China, Kremlin press secretary Peskov told the media that preparations for Putin’s visit to China are nearing completion and that the leaders of Russia and China will jointly announce the date of this important event, emphasizing that it has garnered global attention. The meeting agenda will cover a wide range of issues of mutual interest, with a focus on further developing multi-sectoral cooperation.
Peskov’s remarks and those of other Russian officials likely convey a message to Beijing: we are in the same camp, with shared interests, enduring pressure from the West, and we must stand firm together without yielding to the West led by the US. The upcoming meeting between Putin and Xi in May will explore further opportunities for cooperation, including in the military domain.
With the strong warnings and threats from the US and the hopes of Russia, the top leadership in Beijing has probably made a decision, while the US may take further actions against China either before or after Putin’s visit to show its determination to defeat Russia. If the US decides to remove Chinese banks supporting trade with Russia from the SWIFT system, the impact will be significant. How will Chinese society react? How will the Chinese Communist Party internally respond? Can the top leadership in Beijing prevent further profound crises?