On April 21st, the first meeting of the “2+2” dialogue mechanism between the Foreign and Defense Ministers of China and Indonesia was held. The following day, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, Zhang Youxia, met separately with the visiting Indonesian Defense Minister Shavery. Analysts suggest that Zhang’s solo meeting with the Indonesian Defense Minister indicates his ability to make decisions on behalf of the Military Commission, implying a shift in military authority away from Xi Jinping.
On April 21st, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Defense Minister Dong Jun, along with Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiyo and Defense Minister Shavery jointly hosted the first meeting of the “2+2” dialogue mechanism between the Foreign and Defense Ministers of China and Indonesia.
On the 22nd, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, Zhang Youxia, met with Shavery separately.
According to the website of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, during the meeting with Shavery, Zhang Youxia mentioned that the two countries have advanced the construction of the so-called “China-Indonesia Community of Shared Future”. He noted the success of the first ministerial-level meeting of the Foreign and Defense Ministers of both countries under the “2+2” dialogue mechanism held the previous day (21st), which played a role in enhancing mutual trust between the two militaries and promoting practical cooperation. Shavery responded by expressing Indonesia’s willingness to work together with China to enhance the level of practical military cooperation.
Also on the same day, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun held talks with Shavery.
Researcher Shen Mingshi of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies told Dajiyuan that China has certain protocols in receiving foreign guests, typically having ministerial-level equivalent officials in charge, in addition to arranging meetings with higher-ranking officials to show respect for the guests. As Indonesia is a major Southeast Asian country and China tends to cultivate relations with ASEAN countries, it seems reasonable for Zhang Youxia to receive the Indonesian delegation, but “if Xi Jinping had received them, it would have shown an even greater emphasis on Indonesia.”
Military commentator Shen Zhou told Dajiyuan that deep-seated military cooperation between China and Indonesia requires decision-makers from both militaries to finalize relevant matters. Dong Jun is not a member of the Central Military Commission and only holds the title of Defense Minister, lacking decision-making power. According to the past practice of the Chairman of the Military Commission being in charge, it should have been Xi Jinping making the decisions personally. However, Zhang Youxia’s solo meeting with the Indonesian Defense Minister suggests that he can represent the Military Commission in making decisions.
He mentioned that Political Director Miao Hua undergoing scrutiny and Deputy Chairman of the Military Commission He Weidong being essentially confirmed to have gotten into trouble, “it appears that the Military Commission is indeed being overseen by Zhang Youxia, indicating that Xi Jinping may have lost control over military authority. This news seems to deliberately showcase a significant shift in the exercise of military power within the Chinese Communist Party, sending a clear message both domestically and internationally.”
Shen Mingshi stated, “It is rumored that Zhang Youxia has gained control over the Military Commission, and from this meeting, it can be seen that after the investigation of He Weidong and Xi Jinping’s loss of power, Zhang Youxia has taken control of military authority, increasing the possibility of Xi Jinping handing over power earlier than expected.”
Professor Yeo Yaoyuan from the International Studies lecture at St. Thomas University in the United States believes that from Xi Jinping’s perspective, he only meets with individuals of a certain high status, so the visit of Zhang Youxia represents the hierarchy, not necessarily indicating that Xi Jinping showing up would have displayed more authority.
However, many previous analyses have pointed out that Xi’s power has been weakened or that he has lost control over the military.
Political commentator Li Yanming wrote on March 23rd, analyzing the sudden political changes in the Chinese Communist Party since the Third Plenary Session in mid-July 2024. Rumors of the critical illness of the CCP leader Xi Jinping and rumors of a coup continue to circulate. Signs of Xi’s power weakening and losing control over the military have been emerging. Recent reports even suggest that Xi is only awaiting official announcement of stepping down, with news of Zhang Youxia actually taking control of military authority.
From the Two Sessions of the Chinese Communist Party to date, there have been frequent anomalies among the senior military figures of the CCP. As rumors swirl about the troubles of He Weidong and other senior officials close to Xi, Zhang Youxia’s faction has seen promotions and increased public appearances, creating a stark contrast.
Li Yanming noted, especially at the closing of the National People’s Congress, Zhang Youxia did not turn back to Xi Jinping; during Xi’s visit to the Kunming garrison, He Weidong failed to show up to dispel rumors, and Zhang Youxia also did not accompany, sending sensitive political signals. Numerous signs indicate that Xi Jinping’s loss of military authority is becoming public, possibly setting the stage for significant political changes in the Zhongnanhai leadership.