When NATO members gathered in Washington for a summit, the People’s Republic of China and Belarus launched joint military exercises in Europe. Renowned China expert Gordon Chang warned that this indicates a new threat by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) towards Europe, and NATO must be cautious of Beijing’s further involvement in European conflicts.
Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute in New York, wrote an article for Newsweek on Friday (July 12), analyzing the international security situation based on the CCP’s latest military developments.
“Since the conflict began, China has provided everything for Russia except troops,” Chang cautioned in his article, suggesting that if the Russian military faces failure in Ukraine, the CCP might intervene in a way similar to Mao Zedong’s involvement in the Korean War by sending troops to participate.
“Everyone recognizes that China has brought threats to Asia. Now, the same is true for Europe,” Chang stated.
The 11-day joint exercise is known as “Eagle Strike 2024”. Chang pointed out that while both parties claim this to be an “anti-terrorism exercise”, signs indicate that they are practicing large-scale formation maneuvers. The exercise location is less than two miles from the border of NATO member Poland and only 17 miles from Ukraine.
Chang admitted that currently, the likelihood of the People’s Liberation Army of China and the Russian military fighting side by side is low, as there is no friendship between the leaders of China and Russia. Sending troops to Belarus might even irk Moscow and be seen as reducing Belarus’ reliance on Russia.
However, the ongoing exercises send a signal that the CCP may be willing to encourage Belarus to get involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“Belarus is effectively a belligerent in the Ukraine conflict,” Chang noted, mentioning that at the start of the conflict, Belarus allowed Russian forces to use its territory to launch attacks on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.
Moreover, in order to showcase a close relationship with Belarus, Putin transferred the Iskander missile system equipped with portable nuclear warheads to them before the end of 2022. Last year, Russia also delivered tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“As stated in NATO’s ‘Washington Summit Declaration’ issued on the 10th of this month, China has become the decisive driver behind Russia’s wage of war against Ukraine,” Chang believes. “Since the conflict began, China has provided everything for Russia except troops.”
North Korea is the CCP’s only formal military ally, and there have been reports recently suggesting that North Korea might send combat engineers to aid the Russian troops in Ukraine. Last month, North Korea and Russia signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty,” which includes mutual defense clauses.
Chang believes that North Korea heavily relies on Beijing’s aid, exceeding the levels seen since the mid-1990s, and therefore, at least China does not oppose North Korea aligning with Russia.
“If the situation requires, China can also deploy troops,” Chang stated. “Although Beijing’s relationship with Moscow is tense, Xi Jinping apparently believes he cannot allow Russia to fail. After all, Putin is his partner in overturning the international order led by Western powers.”
Chang suggests that the CCP prefers others to fight on its behalf, hence Russia is crucial to their expansion plans. Therefore, NATO and the United States need to be prepared as the CCP may further involve in the Russia-dominated European conflicts in the future.