In the face of unprecedented Western sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, what has enabled Russia to hold out until now? It is the support of the Chinese Communist Party.
For this point, the Western world led by the United States is certainly well aware. This is why Blinken warned China at the recent G7 meeting that they must choose between Russia and the West; it is impossible to have both. On one hand, they want to establish friendly relations with Europe, while on the other hand, they are fostering the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.
Shortly after issuing this warning, Blinken personally went to China to lay down the cards. As I analyzed in “Will China Yield Once Blinken Lays Down the Cards?” it is highly unlikely that the CCP will yield. And indeed, this turned out to be the case.
From the joint statement issued after Putin’s visit to China, although they no longer mentioned “there is no limit to the friendship between the two countries, no forbidden zones for cooperation,” China’s stance in supporting Russia not only has not changed, but can be said to be even more defined.
The joint statement in evaluating the relationship between the two countries stated: “Facing a turbulent and changing global situation, the China-Russia relationship has withstood the test of international turmoil, highlighting stability and resilience, reaching the best level in history.”
For the first time in the statement, the two did not openly criticize the United States by name, stating they “oppose any attempt to hinder the normal development of the relationship between the two countries, interfere in the internal affairs of the two countries, and restrict attempts to limit the two countries’ economic, technical, and international space.”
Both sides emphasized the need to “deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era,” including increasing the share of the local currency in bilateral trade, financing, and other economic activities between China and Russia, as well as continuing to strengthen strategic energy cooperation between the two countries.
Obviously, the repeated warnings from the United States have had no effect. The CCP has shown through its actions that it is determined to stand by Russia no matter what.
I remember Blinken leaving behind a statement at the press conference before leaving China saying, “If we do not see changes, we are fully prepared to take action.”
Now the facts couldn’t be clearer; the CCP will not stop supporting Russia. Not only will they not stop, but they may even consider increasing the level of support.
On June 16th, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre stated that it is unacceptable for Chinese companies to help Putin launch a war against Ukraine.
Faced with pressure from the United States, the CCP has made a clear choice. This choice from the CCP in turn forces the United States to make a choice – continue warning the CCP, engage in limited sanctions or directly target vital areas to weaken its strength.
The United States has many cards in hand and is fully capable of striking a blow against the CCP. However, based on the actions of the Biden administration in the past, it seems they are reluctant to escalate matters with the CCP. But the current issue is, how long can the Biden administration continue to manage the game of controlling US-China differences in the face of the CCP’s unrepentant actions?