On October 10, 2025, senior Japanese media figure and executive director of a think tank for Indo-Pacific strategy, Akihio Yaita, revealed that after Sanae Takichi was elected as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Wu Jianghao, the Chinese Ambassador to Japan, made a special visit to the representative of the Komeito Party, Tetsuo Saito. Following their discussions, the Komeito Party suddenly took a hardline stance against the LDP.
The ruling coalition in Japan officially announced its dissolution on October 10, as the Komeito Party declared an end to its 26-year-long cooperative relationship with the LDP, putting the newly elected LDP President Sanae Takichi in a significant political quagmire even before formally assuming the role of Prime Minister.
After the split in the coalition, while the LDP remains the largest party in both houses of parliament, it now needs at least two opposition parties to cooperate in order to pass legislation. Although Takichi still has a good chance of becoming the Prime Minister, the difficulty in passing budgets and bills is expected to rise.
Komeito Party leader Tetsuo Saito stated that the reason for the coalition’s breakdown was the inability to overcome differences in the regulation of political donations.
Yaita Akihio posted on the social platform X, saying, “A major change has occurred in Japan’s political landscape today. The Komeito Party, which has been in a coalition with the LDP for 26 years, suddenly announced the termination of their cooperation. The assumption of office by Sanae Takichi, who is set to be recognized in parliament on October 15 as Japan’s first female Prime Minister, has also encountered variables.”
Before withdrawing from the coalition government, the Komeito Party had presented three demands to the LDP. Firstly, they requested that the Prime Minister refrain from visiting Yasukuni Shrine; secondly, they required non-discrimination against foreigners; and thirdly, they asked for enhanced regulations on corporate political donations.
Yaita Akihio stated, “Takichi Sanae has basically agreed to the first two demands. The response to the third was ‘to be discussed later.’ However, Komeito’s strong reaction led them to immediately announce their withdrawal from the coalition government. Corporate political donations are the main source of income for the LDP’s local branches. If the newly elected President, Takichi, easily agrees to this matter, she will face strong resistance from within her party.”
Yaita further revealed, “Reporters have observed that after Takichi was elected as the LDP President, Chinese Ambassador to Japan, Wu Jianghao, made a special visit to Komeito Party representative, Tetsuo Saito. Following their discussions, the Komeito Party’s attitude towards the LDP suddenly turned aggressive.”
Despite these developments, Yaita Akihio believes that the possibility of Takichi becoming the Prime Minister remains the highest.
“Currently, the majority threshold in the House of Representatives is 233 seats, with the LDP holding 196 seats and Komeito 24 seats. The two parties combined still do not have a majority. While the opposition parties have a significant number of seats, Constitutional Democratic Party with 148 seats + Nippon Ishin no Kai with 35 seats + Democratic Party for the People with 27 seats = 210 seats. If Komeito’s 24 seats cooperate with the opposition parties, their total of 234 seats would just pass the majority. However, the opposition parties have various contradictions in their policies, making it unlikely for them to consolidate. Should a vote take place now, Takichi’s chances for Prime Minister, as the leader of the largest party, remain the highest.”
Lastly, Yaita Akihio stated, “Currently, the LDP is actively seeking possibilities to collaborate with the Democratic Party for the People and Nippon Ishin no Kai.”