On the 19th of May, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister crashed in a mountainous area while flying through heavy fog, resulting in the loss of all onboard personnel. The cause of the accident remains unclear, raising speculations about potential underlying factors. Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping promptly expressed deep shock at the loss of “a good friend”.
According to reports from Iranian official media on May 19th local time, President Raisi experienced a “hard landing accident” while flying through heavy fog on a helicopter returning to Tehran from the border. On the 20th, it was officially confirmed that Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati had perished in the helicopter accident.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated during a routine press conference on the 20th that Xi Jinping had sent a message of condolence to Iranian First Vice President Muqbel, referring to the loss as “the Chinese people losing a good friend”.
While it is understandable to mourn the deceased, the Chinese Communist Party often intertwines itself with the Chinese people, a hallmark of dictatorship. Whether this “good friend” dearly departed by Xi Jinping is truly a good friend of all Chinese people should be determined by the people themselves. If Xi is meant to represent the entire nation, have the people’s opinions been considered?
In 1988, Raisi joined a secret tribunal known as the “Death Committee”, which “retried” thousands of political prisoners already in jail and ordered executions. Human rights organizations estimate approximately 5,000 men and women were buried in mass graves, constituting crimes against humanity. Raisi was elected as the President of Iran in 2021. Human rights observers claim that he engaged in severe repression of dissidents during a certain period.
Indian Prime Minister Modi, who had friendly relations with Raisi, also expressed his condolences on social media regarding Raisi’s unexpected passing. Modi’s statement only represents his personal view, which is normal.
The helicopter crash that led to the deaths of Raisi and others has been labeled as a “hard landing”, with uncertainties regarding potential external enemies or internal conflicts as factors.
Such incidents often give rise to conspiracy theories. For example, on August 23, 2023, the leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Prigozhin, whose attempted coup failed, died in a plane crash in northern Moscow, with all ten onboard perishing. This event was also speculated to be an assassination orchestrated by Putin.
It is said that some in Iran suspect the president’s crash is related to Israeli assassination operations. Since the outbreak of conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Iranian leaders had repeatedly threatened to launch a full-scale war against Israel. Last month, Iran conducted a series of drone attacks on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
However, it remains unknown whether the incident is linked to Raisi’s internal political enemies. The Economist pointed out in an analysis that although Raisi was only the “Number Two” figure, his death could still unsettle Iran’s political landscape. Besides swiftly finding a new president, they would need to prevent the economy from further decline and the potential chaos from internal rifts.
Raisi had forged a close alliance with Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many Iranians believed Raisi was being groomed to succeed the ailing Khamenei. Now with Raisi’s demise, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba has emerged as a popular candidate for the country’s top position.
The mysterious death of Iran’s second-in-command in a plane crash evokes memories of the case of Lin Biao from Mao Zedong’s era, who fled and died in a plane crash in Mongolia.
According to the Chinese official account, Lin Biao attempted to seize the highest power of the party and the state, arousing Mao Zedong’s vigilance. Lin Biao and his associates then planned a coup to assassinate Mao Zedong; after the plot was exposed, Lin Biao, his wife, his son Lin Liguo, and numerous entourage members fled on a plane in the early morning of September 13, 1971, crashing in Mongolia, resulting in casualties. This incident, known as the shocking “9/13” event, continues to be questioned by overseas researchers.
While plane accidents occur annually worldwide, incidents involving high-ranking officials often spark speculation of internal turmoil. The recent death of a leader in an authoritarian regime due to a plane crash can have a significant negative psychological impact on the self-proclaimed infallible Chinese dictator.
During the crash of Wagner leader Prigozhin’s private plane in northern Moscow on August 23, 2023, Xi Jinping was in South Africa attending the BRICS summit, where his behavior was noted as peculiar, sparking discussions.
Video footage shows that on the second day of the BRICS summit (23rd), as Xi Jinping walked into the meeting venue after Indian Prime Minister Modi, his aides behind him attempted to follow but were forcibly stopped and pushed out by security personnel, with the doors promptly closed. Xi turned back upon hearing noise behind him, but by then, the door had shut; he feigned composure, continuing along the red carpet, looking back towards the closed door twice, even halting briefly, appearing uncertain, before proceeding into the venue alone.
Xi’s concerns about security are evident; in recent years, during his travels, he arranged for armored vehicles to be transported from China to his location, even flying a full set of furniture to the destination, wary of potential “assassination”. Earlier this month, during a meeting with Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Xi insisted on using sealed, black opaque cups, sparking speculations of fear of being drugged.
Who supports Xi Jinping’s sense of security? Undoubtedly, it is the security officials around him, with his close confidant Cai Qi often accompanying him on trips.
It can be presumed that following the plane crash incident involving Iranian President Raisi, Cai Qi may have ordered meticulous safety checks for every flight Xi undertakes, with the inspection process possibly beyond imagination.