After the conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the political situation remains turbulent, with external judgments indicating that internal struggles within the top ranks of the CCP will intensify in the future. The potential scenarios for Xi Jinping’s downfall have been outlined in three different scripts. Experts have emphasized that regardless of the specific scenario, it raises questions about the direction China will take after Xi’s ousting, as the CCP cannot continue its current course.
Renowned media figure Shibata Akio recently predicted three possible scenarios for Xi Jinping’s downfall: 1) health issues; 2) assassination; and 3) a combination of civil unrest and backlash from anti-Xi forces.
Akio pointed out that Xi Jinping has indeed been experiencing health problems recently, demonstrated by various actions such as having two cups during meetings (one with water and the other with traditional Chinese medicine), frequently disappearing for weeks at a time, and suspected surgical interventions. Despite Xi’s desire to “live to 150,” his physical condition is not in optimal health and is considered subpar.
The second scenario for Xi Jinping’s downfall involves assassination. Akio believes that since Xi came to power, there have been numerous individuals who cannot survive under his rule, especially after successive purges within the military. There are many within the military who may seek to assassinate Xi. This threat has led Xi to take extraordinary precautions during his travels, such as replacing hundreds of hotel staff members with his own people during visits to South Africa and altering his travel routes back to China. However, constant vigilance cannot be maintained indefinitely, leaving room for potential successful attempts.
The third scenario involves a combination of civil unrest and anti-Xi forces. Akio stated that the Chinese society is currently facing extreme economic hardships and widespread discontent, with signs of impending social upheaval similar to the “blank paper revolution” from several years ago. As the economic situation deteriorates, various voices of dissent will emerge, potentially leading to a convergence of grievances that, if unified (reminiscent of the Romanian revolution), could prompt a shift in power dynamics within the CCP.
Despite these possibilities, Akio believes that Xi Jinping’s current position remains firm.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, highlighted abnormal conditions within the CCP and the military, reflecting a growing crisis in the ruling elite that the CCP consistently tries to conceal.
He anticipates that Xi Jinping’s grip on power will likely persist until 2027, unless unforeseen events occur. The main variable during this period will be the military. “Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia are in conflict. With a large number of vacancies in senior positions, the question arises whether a new batch of promotions will be made. Will these individuals be aligned with Zhang Youxia or Xi Jinping? This serves as a key indicator of where military power lies.”
Chinese affairs expert Wang He mentioned that regardless of the scenario under which Xi Jinping is ousted, it will raise critical questions about China’s future direction. While past suggestions included abolishing the Communist Party and establishing a Chinese democratic party, or reforming the CCP, such discussions faded away after Xi Jinping assumed power as people recognized the CCP’s egregious crimes, making its continued existence untenable.
Wang He elaborated that in the event of Xi Jinping’s downfall, Chinese people will face two main paths: “If some within the CCP are wise enough, they can follow the Soviet model, peacefully dissolve and dismantle the CCP. If extremists take control, China may follow the Romanian model, where the dictator is captured and executed. There is no third option between these two models; preserving the CCP’s regime and maintaining the status quo is untenable.”
To facilitate a peaceful transition, Wang He emphasized the need for China to rebuild its civilization and morals, conditions that have already been established by the massive “Quit the Party” movement over the past 20 years. He proposed a complete exodus from the CCP, centering on the reconstruction of traditional culture as the core, followed by structural reforms in China’s political and economic spheres, leading to reintegration into the international community, which he believes would be China’s best choice.