Recently, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang went to the United States to attend the United Nations General Assembly and delivered a speech, while at the same time, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping was in Xinjiang attending the 70th anniversary celebration of the region’s founding. Overseas discussions have been sparked about signs of Xi stepping back into the “second line.” Additionally, concerns about Xi Jinping’s health have once again come into focus. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session next month is believed to potentially involve significant changes in personnel.
Premier Li Keqiang of the Chinese Communist Party recently attended the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
According to a report by the Associated Press on September 25th, Li Keqiang’s speech at this week’s UN General Assembly session indicates Xi Jinping’s move to “retire to the second line.”
The report suggests that this change is the latest example of Xi Jinping reducing overseas travels and entrusting tasks to loyal subordinates. His leadership style seems to be evolving, pushing Li Keqiang into a more prominent role.
Neil Thomas, a China political researcher at the Asia Institute of Social Policy, stated that Li Keqiang could become a crucial interlocutor for governments and companies wishing to engage with China. Thomas believes that age may be a factor, as there are no signs of Xi Jinping, at 72 years old, stepping down. By reducing travel to maintain his health, Xi Jinping is ultimately strengthening his control over power.
Another expert mentioned that Xi is authorizing others, stating, “This is not a devolution of power or a structural change. He simply wants others to act on his behalf.”
Observers noticed that although Xi Jinping assigned Li Keqiang to attend the UN General Assembly in person, Xi himself delivered a video message at the UN Climate Change Summit on September 24th.
On the 23rd, Xi Jinping arrived in Urumqi with a large group of officials to attend the 70th anniversary celebration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region’s establishment. However, similar to his previous visit to Tibet for an event, Xi Jinping merely symbolically met with local representatives and took photos, while the Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Wang Huning, delivered the speech on behalf of the central government.
Political commentator Chen Pokong expressed to Dajiyuan that in his view, there has been a significant change in the power structure of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping’s trips to Xinjiang and his previous visit to Tibet give the impression of a farewell tour.
Chen Pokong stated that Xi Jinping seems to have already stepped back into the second line, delegating party affairs to the Secretary-General of the Central Secretariat, Cai Qi, and government affairs to Premier Li Keqiang. Xi Jinping first faded out of military affairs. The military is now under the supervision of Zhang Yuxia, who is in charge of the daily work of the Military Commission.
“In particular, when he went to Tibet, to Xinjiang for a big event, it was Wang Huning who delivered the speech, and Xi Jinping attended but did not speak; additionally, after the parade in Beijing, Xi Jinping only appeared for a photo and left, while Cai Qi spoke.”
Chen Pokong has repeatedly mentioned Xi “stepping back into the second line” in recent self-media programs.
China expert Tang Jingyuan told Dajiyuan that it is not uncommon for the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party to step back behind the scenes and hold power, as seen with Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin attempting this model. However, the prerequisite for assuming power behind the scenes is complete control over the military.
Tang Jingyuan stated that Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping had a foundation in the military from their wartime experiences, enabling them to command the party with military power, even when stepping back. Jiang Zemin, after stepping down, controlled the Military Commission through his own trusted individuals, sidelining Hu Jintao. Xi Jinping actually wants to replicate this model.
However, Xi does not have a foundation in the military, especially since last year when Zhang Yuxia effectively took over military power, resulting in a purge of Xi’s cronies led by Miao Hua and He Weidong. Tang Jingyuan said that Xi is losing the foundation of power, and if he truly steps back into the second line, it will be impossible for him to continue to wield power from behind the scenes.
On the morning of September 23rd, when CCTV broadcasted Xi Jinping getting off the plane, the camera first showed him waving at the top, but as Xi walked down the stairs, the camera turned to the crowd of actors; only after Xi had fully descended did the camera focus on him, and his steps nearly stumbled. Later, CCTV continued to show shots of Wang Huning and Cai Qi walking down the plane.
Chen Pokong believes that this deliberate editing by CCTV was to avoid showing Xi in an unflattering light when disembarking but indirectly hinted to the external world that Xi Jinping’s physical condition is not as good as others, and the problem is serious.
In recent years, when Xi Jinping has appeared publicly or during overseas visits, media footage often shows him walking unsteadily, fueling rumors of his serious illness.
Chen Pokong stated that although Xi can step back into the second line, practicing “rule from behind the curtain” is not feasible; his power will gradually dissipate. According to the unspoken rules within the Chinese Communist Party, one cannot work while ill. Initially, military power was taken over by Zhang Yuxia, who is backed by political elders; subsequently, personnel power was snatched by Hu Jintao’s faction, led by Shi Taifeng.
“The more his body deteriorates, the more his power diminishes; as his power wanes, Xi Jinping’s mood worsens, leading to further physical decline,” he said.
The Chinese Communist Party has announced that the Fourth Plenary Session will be held in October.
Chen Pokong stated that the Fourth Plenary Session has several key points to watch out for. The first is whether Xi Jinping will relinquish one, two, or all three of his positions and whether he will withdraw from the Political Bureau Standing Committee. One possible approach is for Xi to relinquish power without stepping down but to retain a façade and vanity.
The second point to watch is that, with a Political Bureau of only twenty-four people and the absence of a female member, and with the recent troubles befell He Weidong, the Political Bureau needs to fill in vacancies. Furthermore, Xi’s confidant within the Political Bureau, Ma Xingrui, could be in trouble.
The third point is that the Central Military Commission also needs to fill vacancies, as three out of seven members are missing.
The fourth point is that the State Council, with two out of five State Councilors absent, including the Foreign Minister and the Minister of National Defense, also requires discussion.
Chen Pokong believes that although the Fourth Plenary Session appears to focus on economic and social issues, the most significant problem lies in high-level personnel issues. The incomplete Political Bureau and Military Commission cannot be delayed until the Twenty-First National Congress. The reshuffling of high-level personnel, whether Xi Jinping “let powers and positions go” or not, will deal a heavy blow to Xi.
Chen Pokong also pointed out that the fifth major point of the Fourth Plenary Session is whether an image of Xi Jinping’s successor will emerge, such as Ding Xuexiang, Hu Chunhua, or Chen Min’er. If such arrangements are made, it indicates that Xi Jinping will step aside by the Twenty-First Party Congress; if no successor emerges, it shows that Xi Jinping still harbors ambitions and wants to govern in the long term or rule from behind the scenes. However, due to Xi Jinping’s declining health and power, his chances of remaining in his position for an extended period are diminishing significantly.