Recently, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, was absent from an important military meeting. Among the six members of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping’s camp only occupied two seats, while the camp of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia held four seats. Analysts believe that this power distribution is unfavorable to Xi.
On October 14th and 15th, the Chinese Communist Party held a military theoretical work conference in Beijing. According to the official Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping, the leader of the CCP, issued important instructions for the conference, but he did not attend the meeting. It was Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia who attended and gave the speech.
Xi Jinping’s absence has drawn attention from political observers. Political analyst Chen Pokong, based in the United States, expressed on a self-media program that the significance of this meeting is no less than the Political Work Conference of the Central Military Commission held in Yan’an, Shaanxi in June this year. At that event, all the top military officials were present, Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech. However, this time he symbolically showed his presence through issuing instructions. Unless there is a health issue, Xi Jinping had no reason to be absent from such a crucial meeting.
Just a few days before the military theoretical work conference, Xi Jinping was still seen meeting with foreign guests in public. According to the official Chinese media reports, on the morning of October 11th, Xi Jinping met with foreign guests attending the China International Friendship Conference and the 70th-anniversary commemoration event of the CCP’s Foreign Friendship Association. On the same day, he also met with a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Secretary of the Central Party Committee, Liang Qiang. These diplomatic activities indicated that Xi Jinping had no apparent health issues, which further fueled speculations about his absence from the important military meeting.
In addition, Zhang Youxia’s speech at the conference has also garnered attention. In previous military meetings or other public occasions, Zhang Youxia had always emphasized the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping’s “strong military thinking” and “implementation of the Chairman’s responsibility system of the Military Commission.” However, during this conference, Zhang Youxia only mentioned the need to seriously study and implement Xi Jinping’s so-called important instructions, without mentioning the “strong military thinking” and “implementation of the Chairman’s responsibility system” anymore. This change has led to more speculations about the power dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party’s military and Xi Jinping’s influence within the military.
Chen Pokong believes that this meeting marks another evidence of Xi Jinping losing military power. Retired Chinese Navy Colonel Yao Cheng expressed that Xi Jinping’s absence from such an important military meeting indicates that his prestige within the military is almost nonexistent.
On October 16th, during an interview with Epoch Times reporters, Yao Cheng stated that since Xi Jinping came to power, he has done two things within the military: selective “anti-corruption” and promoting military reforms. Xi Jinping lacks military knowledge, and the reforms he has implemented have plunged the military into chaos, leading to discontent among many military leaders. Zhang Youxia holds high prestige within the military, especially since there are few senior officers with actual combat experience. Zhang Youxia is one of the few who has experience in real combat, having personally participated in the Sino-Vietnamese War.
Yao Cheng mentioned that recent changes have occurred within the Chinese Communist Party’s military, especially with Xi’s close ally and the second-in-command in the military’s “anti-corruption” work – Chen Guoqiang, now appointed as the Political Commissar at the National University of Defense Technology, which indicates that Xi Jinping’s power within the military is gradually diminishing.
Chen Pokong pointed out that the power structure of the Central Military Commission has changed. Currently, the six members of the Central Military Commission are divided into two factions: Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman He Weidong on one side, and Zhang Youxia with members Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin on the other side, forming a 2 to 4 ratio. This situation is unfavorable to Xi Jinping and favors the anti-Xi faction.
Public information shows that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are the only two members of the CCP Central Military Commission with actual combat experience, having both participated in the Sino-Vietnamese War. During the conflict, Liu Zhenli was involved in operations against Vietnam in 1986. Zhang Youxia also took part in the Sino-Vietnamese War. In 1984, during renewed border clashes between China and Vietnam, Zhang Youxia, then serving as the commander of the 119th Regiment of the 40th Division of the 14th Army, participated in the clashes around Lao Cai mountain. Liu and Zhang formed camaraderie and hierarchical relationships during the Sino-Vietnamese War.
Zhang Shengmin is considered to be close to Zhang Youxia and is a military officer from the Chinese Rocket Force. The Equipment Department of the Rocket Force has close ties with the General Equipment Department.
He Weidong and Miao Hua have served long terms in the former 31st Group Army of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (now the 73rd Group Army after military reforms). Xi Jinping spent 17 years of his political career in Fujian, and the former 31st Group Army stationed in Fujian has been seen as Xi Jinping’s core army force. He Weidong previously served as Commander of the Eastern Theater Command, while Miao Hua served as Political Commissar of the Navy. Before becoming Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, He Weidong was transferred to the Joint Operations Command Center of the CCP Central Military Commission, where Xi Jinping was the overall commander.
However, on the eve of the 20th Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party held in July this year, He Hongjun, the Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, was unexpectedly promoted to General and appeared for the first time in a significant role as Executive Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission.
The current member of the Central Military Commission and Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission is Navy Admiral Miao Hua. In addition to He Hongjun, the deputy director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, this also includes Air Force Major General Wang Chengnan.
Chen Pokong, in a previous interview with Epoch Times reporters, mentioned that the promotion of He Hongjun was extraordinary and even irregular. Furthermore, the timing of his promotion before the Third Plenary Session was also unusual. He Hongjun, previously a deputy director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, was unexpectedly promoted to a General, which was considered highly irregular. In order to elevate He Hongjun’s position, Xi Jinping, aside from promoting him to the rank of General, also appointed him as the Executive Deputy Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, with the intention to sideline and suppress Miao Hua.
Chen Pokong stated that Miao Hua was targeted due to his high status and influence, as he supervised personnel matters within the military. Many of the promoted officials under Miao Hua’s leadership were from the Navy, such as Wang Houbin, who was transferred as the Commander of the Rocket Force, previously serving as the Deputy Commander of the Navy, and Dong Jun, who is currently the Minister of National Defense, formerly the Commander of the Navy. Therefore, regardless of whether Miao Hua had any anti-Xi actions, solely based on his high rank and influence, Xi Jinping became suspicious of him.
While Xi Jinping was absent from the important military meeting, as reported by the official Chinese media, on October 15th, Zhang Youxia met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Beijing. It is noteworthy that Xi Jinping himself did not meet with Shoigu.
According to the official Chinese media reports, Xi Jinping conducted inspections in Fujian from October 15th to 16th.
However, the personnel accompanying Xi Jinping during this inspection in Fujian have raised concerns among the public. Unlike his previous visits, where Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi always accompanied him, the highest-ranking official accompanying Xi Jinping this time was only Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Chen Pokong mentioned in a self-media program that Xi Jinping’s absence from important military events, lack of meetings with the Russian Defense Minister, and other details indicate that he is gradually withdrawing from military affairs. The real power within the military now seems to be under the control of Zhang Youxia and his faction. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s failure to have the usual company of Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi during the Fujian inspection and the significant decrease in the level of accompanying officials is a clear sign of Xi’s diminishing military power. Chen Pokong commented, “Xi Jinping’s loss of military power is already a reality.”