China’s flooding situation continues to worsen, with the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir rising further. The flooding in the middle and lower reaches has become more severe due to the discharge of floodwaters from the nine spillways of the Three Gorges Dam. The reservoir itself is in a dilemma – not discharging floodwater will increase the risk upstream, but discharging it will worsen flooding in the middle and lower reaches.
Since July 8, continuous heavy rain has been falling in Chongqing and Dazhou, Sichuan in the upstream of the Yangtze River. On July 11 at 18:00, the second flood peak of the Yangtze River in 2024 was formed, labeled as “Yangtze River No. 2 Flood of 2024.” With the intensification of the upstream flood situation, the Three Gorges Dam first opened 2 spillways on July 10, followed by additional spillway openings every day.
By July 13, the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir had reached a historical high of 165.72 meters, exceeding the flood limit level by 20.72 meters, with an inflow of 51,500 cubic meters per second and an outflow of 37,500 cubic meters per second. That day, two more spillways were opened at the Three Gorges Reservoir, bringing the total to six.
On July 14, Three Gorges Dam opened 3 more spillways to speed up the discharge of floodwaters previously impounded. Within the 9 spillway discharge, on July 15, the Three Gorges Reservoir faced the expected flood peak, with a flow rate of 45,000 cubic meters per second, causing the water level to rise to 165.86 meters, significantly higher than historical levels.
According to the Yangtze River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China, the Yangtze River Basin entered a critical flood control period on July 16. In the coming 10 days, continuous heavy rainfall is expected in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, including the Jialing River and Minjiang River, exacerbating the flood situation and disaster in Chongqing and other areas.
Currently, as a result of the No. 2 Yangtze River flood, at least 29 rivers in Chongqing have exceeded the warning water levels, with 13 districts and counties experiencing flooding. The cities and towns are inundated, with many buildings flooded and collapsed, and some streets submerged up to 3 meters deep. Local residents have expressed that they have not seen such a large flood in decades. Due to strict control over disaster information by the authorities, the actual number of affected individuals and casualties remains undisclosed.
Not only the upstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam have been affected by continuous heavy rain and severe flooding, but with the arrival of this year’s No. 2 flood of the Yangtze River, flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, and other provinces along the Yangtze River continues.
In the southeast of Anhui Province, torrential rain persists, coupled with ongoing discharge from the Three Gorges Dam, resulting in high and rising water levels on the main stream of the Yangtze River within the province. On the 14th, water levels along the river in Anhui surpassed warning levels by 200 kilometers, with 16 small and medium rivers exceeding warning levels, along with 5 large, 29 medium-sized, and 1060 small reservoirs exceeding flood limits.
Officials in Anhui Province reported that since July 8, flooding and landslides have occurred in 62 counties and cities, affecting 4.4474 million people, resulting in approximately 30,000 damaged or collapsed residential buildings; the total affected area of crops and accumulated flooded area is estimated to be around 9 million mu.
The expectation is that in the coming days, certain areas of Anhui will continue to experience heavy rainfall, with water levels along the main stream of the Yangtze River in Anhui likely to exceed warning levels on the 18th, maintaining a severe flood control situation.
In Hubei Province, a number of areas, including Shiyan, Wuhan, Yichang, and Xiaogan, have experienced heavy rainfall since last weekend. Swiftly rising river waters and swift currents have inundated some streets in urban areas.
On July 14th, the city of Danjiangkou in Hubei Province was hit by heavy rainfall again. Videos captured from the scene show severe flooding in urban areas, with water submerging most vehicles, accompanied by large amounts of mud and debris. On the 15th, a passenger van in Suizhou, Hubei was swept away while crossing a bridge, resulting in the deaths of four individuals, including an elderly person and a child going to make up missed classes.
Authorities in Jiangxi reported that as of the 15th, more than 1 million people in 66 counties and cities have been affected by flooding and geological disasters, with approximately 175,800 hectares of crops damaged and 20,500 hectares completely lost.
Currently, although rainfall in Jiangxi has weakened, the flood situation continues to develop. The section of the Yangtze River in Jiujiang, and the Poyang Lake in Jiangxi are expected to maintain high water levels for an extended period, with the water level exceeding warning levels for over 30 days. Even without additional rainfall, due to the backflow of water from the Yangtze River to Poyang Lake, the water level remains high, posing severe risks.
In Hunan Province, efforts to drain over 200 million cubic meters of collected water from the Tuanzhou embankment in the Dongting Lake area have progressed slowly since the embankment was closed on the 8th. By the 16th, the water level within the embankment had only dropped by 1 meter, still at 31.99 meters. Due to the increased discharge from the Three Gorges Reservoir, the water level in Chenglingji of Dongting Lake is rising again, with the current water level outside the embankment higher than the collected water inside. The accumulated water inside cannot be discharged.
The extended presence of water around the Dongting Lake embankment poses an increased risk, especially in the merged section where the sealing of the embankment is poor against seepage. Water management experts suggest that to repair the embankment according to construction standards, it will require waiting for the water level to drop and reinforcing it after the flood season. If the Tuanzhou embankment breaches again, it will directly threaten the secondary earthen dikes; if the secondary dikes fail, over 10,000 acres of farmland and homes will suffer catastrophic consequences.
Renowned hydraulic engineer Wang Weiluo, currently residing in Europe, expressed to a publication, that the breach in the Dongting Lake on July 5 was largely due to the simultaneous discharge from several large reservoirs along four major rivers into the lake and periodic discharge actions of the Three Gorges Reservoir, raising the water levels of the Yangtze River flowing into the Dongting Lake.
As the floods ravage the Yangtze River basin, concerns over the flood control capabilities of the Three Gorges Dam resurface.
Wang Weiluo pointed out that the construction of the Three Gorges Dam reshaped the ecology of the river entirely, creating two separate segments of the river above and below the dam. For the Three Gorges project to effectively protect the downstream areas from floods, it should continue to impound floodwaters. However, by doing so, the water level upstream will rise, exacerbating the flood situation. Conversely, increasing discharge will intensify flooding downstream, resulting in a contradictory situation.
Noted hydraulic engineer Huang Wanli previously stated, “If you protect Wuhan, you exacerbate flooding in Chongqing.”
Wang Weiluo elaborated, “The Three Gorges Dam itself is unfavorable to the upstream areas. Prior to the dam, the normal natural water level was at 62 meters, but after the construction, the water level can reach 175 meters, currently at 166 meters, which means an elevation of 104 meters, intensifying floods upstream. By storing water in the Three Gorges and raising the water levels, the tributaries will also experience elevated water levels, leading to backflow where the water of the major river flows into the smaller ones.”
He further disclosed, “The majority of China’s reservoirs are primarily for hydroelectric power generation, including the Three Gorges project, where flood control was merely a cover during the initiation to garner support. In reality, it is not a hydraulic project but a power generation project. Dr. Lu Qingkai, a leading researcher on Yangtze River floods, clearly stated in 1998 during a major flood that ‘the Three Gorges project doesn’t serve much in flood control.'”
To prevent the Three Gorges project from detrimentally affecting upstream and downstream flood situations, Wang Weiluo believes the best approach would be to dismantle it or fully open all spillways of the Three Gorges Dam, treating it as nonexistent — allowing water to flow naturally without any intervention, effectively nullifying its flood control functions.