Less than 40 days left until the U.S. election, Tim Walz and JD Vance will hold their first and only vice presidential debate on Tuesday, October 1st. Analysts believe that the importance of this vice presidential debate may outweigh previous ones.
In history, vice presidential candidates have often played the role of political attack dogs, facing off against opponents to allow the presidential candidates to stay above political strife. However, with the entrance of former President Trump into the American political scene, this political norm has changed.
The two candidates present starkly different visions for the country. Vance represents Trump’s “America First” agenda, while Walz advocates for the record of the Biden-Harris administration and his progressive policies as a governor.
David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, told English Epoch Times that Trump and Harris’s choice of Vance and Walz seems to aim at returning the election to political fundamentals.
Neither candidate hails from crucial swing states, yet both have strong appeal to their respective party’s base voters. Vance enjoys high support among Trump supporters, while before being selected as the vice presidential candidate, Walz had garnered praise from many progressive leaders within the Democratic Party.
Schultz said: “At this moment, neither campaign is actively seeking support from moderates.”
Nevertheless, the showdown between the two candidates still has the potential to exert strong appeal on undecided voters in what may be the most unique election in modern history.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the vice president also serves as the president of the Senate and has the power to cast a tie-breaking vote in case of a deadlock.
Harris broke a tie in the Senate vote, breaking a 191-year old record and becoming the vice president with the most critical votes cast in American history. As is known, the vice president also oversees the certification of election results in Congress.
However, the primary role of the vice president is to be prepared to take over in the event of the president’s incapacitation. Throughout history, nine vice presidents have assumed the presidency upon the death or resignation of the president, with the most recent being Gerald Ford, who became president after Nixon resigned in 1974.
Vice presidential historian Joel K. Goldstein told the Associated Press that recent assassination attempts on Trump have heightened the “prominence of the succession issue”.
He said, while some voters may view vice presidential nominees merely as appendages to the presidential candidates rather than potential future presidents.
“They do consider whether this person can step into the job at any time,” Goldstein said. “People can also see if the person who selected them is a good decision-maker.”
Historically, vice presidential debates have had little impact on election results, but this year may be different.
Vice presidential debates have limited influence on polling as fewer viewers tune in compared to presidential debates. Pew Research Center data from June showed that in 2016, 84 million people watched the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton, while only 37.2 million watched their running mates, then-Indiana Governor Pence and Senator Tim Kaine, debate.
Four years later, 57.9 million watched Harris and Pence debate, still fewer than the 73.1 million who tuned in for Biden and Trump’s showdown.
In addition, debate viewers are typically highly politically engaged, likely having made up their minds before the debate.
However, Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told the AP that given the fiercely contested battleground states this year, the vice presidential debate may still be crucial.
Furthermore, with the Democratic Party switching presidential candidates, Harris and Trump only shared a stage for a single debate in early September. This means that Tuesday may be the last time voters see the two party candidates directly confront each other before election day.
Jones also noted that Walz and Vance must avoid committing memorable mistakes as these errors could be endlessly replayed.
“There is not a high likelihood of the type of game-changing gaffe, but it’s not impossible,” Jones said. “They both are seasoned performers, but one mistake is all it takes.”
Regardless of the ultimate impact of the upcoming debate, both vice presidential candidates have been diligently preparing.
Vance has enlisted Congressman Tom Emmer as a stand-in for Walz to rehearse for the debate. Emmer has worked closely with Walz for years, extensively researching his past debates and policy positions.
Walz, on the other hand, sought help from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg previously served as Pence’s stand-in before the 2020 Harris debate.
In an interview with English Epoch Times, Schultz offered advice to both candidates: “Avoid causing harm and making mistakes. They only need to defend their presidential candidate and not make errors that turn voters off.”
Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University Indianapolis, told English Epoch Times that for both candidates, a good debate strategy is to handle disadvantageous topics appropriately and swiftly pivot to issues that voters trust them on the most.
Dusso suggested that for Walz, this means emphasizing abortion, healthcare, education, and criticizing the “2025 plan”.
He advised Vance to stick to policy issues, particularly border security, economy, and crime.
He said: “Even if crime rates are down and the economy is performing well, the Republican Party’s best strategy remains to focus on these issues as general voters view them as their strong suits.”