The recent military drills conducted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) near Taiwan may have concluded hastily, but former U.S. President Trump has made a startling statement. He said that if the CCP were to invade Taiwan during his presidency, he would bomb Beijing. This statement must have caused quite an impact in Zhongnanhai (the CCP leadership compound). The possibility of the U.S. military having plans to bomb Beijing in the event of a conflict is something that has been known between the two sides for a while, but Trump’s sudden disclosure of such a plan is likely to catch Zhongnanhai off guard.
President Biden has repeatedly emphasized the importance of avoiding a conflict between China and the United States. The Biden administration hopes to continue weakening the CCP through “intense competition” without resorting to warfare, ultimately hoping to prevail without the need for actual military conflict. This strategy seems to be working as Zhongnanhai is finding itself in disarray. However, the crisis in the Taiwan Strait has not diminished, and the possibility of the CCP taking reckless actions when cornered still exists.
In Trump’s view, Biden’s deterrence is not strong enough, and the CCP needs to understand the consequences of starting a war in order to maximize deterrence. Trump’s words serve as both a campaign strategy and an indication of how he would handle the CCP if re-elected. He believes that only through such extreme pressure tactics can the CCP be effectively deterred from military adventurism.
Of course, the CCP will not hesitate to sacrifice the lives of Chinese soldiers and civilians, always manipulating the Chinese people to serve the Party’s interests. However, the top CCP leaders are unlikely to sacrifice themselves under any circumstance. If they knew that bombs would soon be falling on their heads with nowhere to escape, they would not dare to easily order a war.
The U.S. military naturally has plans to bomb Beijing, but whether they would execute such plans quickly in the event of a conflict depends on the developments on the ground and how the White House seeks to control the scale of the war. While the relations between the U.S. and China are deteriorating, they have not yet reached a point of no return necessitating an armed conflict. The sensational impact of Trump’s statement is mainly due to the provocative nature of the threat. When one side openly expresses intentions to bomb the capital of the other, it naturally raises eyebrows.
This is Trump – unafraid to speak boldly and strategically. His ultimate principle, like Biden’s, is to prevail without fighting, but Trump’s approach appears more aggressive as he aims to demonstrate greater deterrence, which indeed should be most effective against the CCP.
The CCP’s highest-ranking defense systems such as the S-300, S-400, and their Red Flag-9B missile copies are always prioritized and deployed heavily around Beijing. The density of their air defense network is likely at its maximum around the capital. The CCP leaders do not even dare to travel by plane within the country, fearing the air defense missiles around Beijing. Special precautions are taken when they need to travel to or from the capital on official business.
The CCP may have maligned imperial systems spanning thousands of years, but they have set their sights on Beijing’s Forbidden City. The top CCP leadership still occupies the Imperial City and finds influence in the legacies of past emperors. However, moving the capital to Beijing has added a layer of defense complexity. Beijing is less than 200 kilometers away from the Bohai Sea. In 1900, during the Eight-Nation Alliance, Beijing was first occupied after Tianjin, and the Empress Dowager Cixi and Emperor Guangxu had to flee the city. At that time, air raids were not part of warfare, allowing Cixi to narrowly avoid being captured.
Today’s warplanes can easily surpass supersonic speeds, with a flight from South Korea to Beijing being less than 1000 kilometers. American fighter jets can reach Beijing in just one hour, well within the operational range of the F-35A stealth fighter. Beijing is also approximately 1400 kilometers away from Kyushu, Japan, which is not too far either.
The second unit of the CCP’s J-20 stealth fighters is stationed in Anshan, Liaoning; with the continuous production of J-20s, the CCP has begun deployment in Qufu, Shandong. While the numbers of J-20s remain limited, they are expected to be mainly utilized in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea regions, which has forced some deployment for defense purposes in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and the Korea Peninsula direction. Clearly, the CCP is wary of potential surprise attacks on Beijing from the Korean Peninsula or the Yellow Sea by American forces.
Furthermore, in the northern region of China, the CCP has deployed J-16s in Weifang, Shandong, and J-11s in Dalian. Although the J-10 fighter jets are unlikely to be able to combat American forces effectively, the J-16 and J-11 fighters are also not considered to be on par with the U.S. F-22 and F-35 jets. The number of J-20 fighter jets in the CCP’s northern region is estimated to be around 20 to 30, possibly matching the 39 F-35 jets possessed by South Korea.
In 1950, the CCP blindly intervened in the Korean War, which resulted in the continuous presence of American forces in South Korea. The presence of American F-22 and F-35 fighter jets is frequently dynamic, with deployments and joint exercises with the South Korean Air Force serving as a dual deterrent against North Korea and Beijing.
If U.S. submarines and Aegis-equipped ships were to be deployed in the Yellow Sea or in the Tsushima Strait between Japan and South Korea, they could launch Tomahawk cruise missiles to target Beijing. The range of Tomahawk cruise missiles has been extended from 1600 kilometers to 2400 kilometers, with the land-based variant ‘Diplomat’ system being previously deployed in the Philippines and could also potentially be deployed in either Japan or South Korea. Japan has also ordered 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles with the goal of building a swift counter-attack capability against the CCP.
The performance of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been lackluster, as they have struggled to intercept tactical missiles provided by the United States and its allies to Ukraine. The uncertainty around whether the CCP’s S-300, S-400, and Red Flag-9B defenses can effectively detect U.S. stealth aircraft or intercept Tomahawk cruise missiles likely bothers Zhongnanhai. Furthermore, the presence of U.S. stealth bombers would pose an even greater challenge for the CCP’s defenses.
The U.S. B-2 stealth bomber remains unparalleled in the world, and the upcoming B-21 bomber will further enhance the capabilities of the U.S. military. Trump’s bold statement about bombing Beijing underscores the immense firepower and capabilities possessed by the U.S. military.
While the CCP leaders may have contemplated the idea of bombing Washington for centuries, their options are currently limited to intercontinental ballistic missiles. The CCP’s H-6 bombers can only dream, with their conventional powered aircraft carrier having barely approached Guam, still a considerable distance from Hawaii and far from the mainland United States.
Trump’s words reflect the true strength of the U.S. military. The operational B-2 bombers can carry B-61 tactical nuclear bombs, as well as massive bunker buster bombs, making even the CCP leadership nervous knowing that they could face attacks even in underground hideouts. Trump’s suggestion that if the CCP were to attack Taiwan, he would bomb Beijing essentially implies a decapitation strike operation. The unpredictable timing of a B-2 attack could catch the CCP off guard, potentially disrupting their control over all military forces and officials if the leadership is constantly forced to stay underground to evade detection.
When the U.S. initially developed the B-2 bomber, its primary focus was likely the former Soviet Union. With the end of the Cold War, it seemed like the B-2 bomber had lost its relevance given its exorbitant costs, resulting in production being halted after 21 units were built. However, in the 21st century, particularly in the past decade, the CCP’s escalating challenges against the U.S. have rekindled the value and importance of the B-2 bomber.
With the B-2 bomber in their arsenal, the U.S. military undoubtedly has operational plans in place. Potential targets could include CCP missile bases, nuclear facilities, and centers of command throughout Beijing. While the numbers of B-2 bombers are limited, having been in service since 1997, the U.S. military has come to recognize the paramount importance of stealth bombers, leading to the accelerated progress of the B-21 project for mass production. The development of the B-2 stealth bomber required substantial investments, and today, it is yielding significant returns. Using the successful experience gained from the B-2, the B-21 project is swiftly advancing.
The arrival of the B-21 will bolster the U.S. military’s fleet of stealth bombers, gradually replacing the existing 45 B-1B bombers. This will enhance the U.S. military’s ability to conduct covert strikes against Beijing, CCP missile bases, and other targets, ensuring more effective strategies to achieve their goals. The growing gap in military capabilities between the U.S. and China is once again widening, providing the necessary backing for Trump’s assertions.
If a B-2 were to initiate an attack, top-priority targets would likely include CCP missile bases and Beijing. After the B-21 enters active service in large numbers, the target scope would expand further to potentially include CCP command centers, communication hubs, critical radar facilities, aerospace launch and space monitoring centers, as well as important airports, defense industry research centers, and major production facilities. This could also encompass essential military transport hubs, ammunition depots, fuel reserves, among others.
For instance, the major airfields where J-20 and J-16 fighters are based, along with production facilities like the Chengdu Aircraft Manufacturing Plant producing J-20s and the Shenyang Aircraft Manufacturing Plant producing J-16s could be targeted. Destruction of these facilities could result in substantial losses to the CCP’s mainstay fighter jets and cripple their rearming capabilities.
Similarly, a series of units under the CCP’s Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, responsible for developing and producing manned spacecraft, satellites, carrier rockets, missiles, etc., located in Beijing, Shanghai, Xi’an, Sichuan, could face a severe blow if subjected to a U.S. airstrike. This could lead to a significant disruption in the production capabilities, rendering any rearmament efforts futile. CCP’s major space launch centers and monitoring facilities are also at risk of being struck, consequently compromising their launch capabilities and space surveillance and control capabilities.
Key inland facilities linked to military industries could become targets for U.S. airstrikes, to be carried out by B-2 and B-21 bombers. Coastal naval bases like Qingdao, Dalian, Zhoushan, Sanya, along with coastal air force bases, and major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou could be targeted by U.S. B-1B and B-52 bombers equipped with AGM-158 long-range missiles, with the F-35 jets joining in as well. An array of Tomahawk cruise missiles carried by multiple Aegis ships and submarines would spearhead the initial counter-attack. If the CCP’s coastal air defense systems are compromised, a larger fleet of U.S. aircraft would be able to participate in extensive aerial strikes.
The CCP’s surrounding Taiwan military maneuvers are mere displays of “false combat effectiveness,” scenarios unlikely to play out in real combat situations. The U.S. military has the capability to quickly incapacitate the CCP’s military offensive potential, destroy their missile bases, nuclear facilities, execute decapitation strikes, and impair the CCP’s military-industrial complex production capabilities.
While the CCP’s drills encircling Taiwan unfolded, the U.S. aircraft carrier Reagan was cruising in the Philippine Sea, another carrier Roosevelt remained in the South China Sea, with two carriers on standby off the U.S. West Coast. Similarly, the U.S. Ohio-class guided-missile submarines are patrolling the Western Pacific, armed with 144 Tomahawk cruise missiles and capable of launching an attack at a moment’s notice.
During the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 31st, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meeting with CCP Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, reiterated that “China should not use Taiwan’s political transition – a normal, routine part of democratic processes – as an excuse for coercion.” He explicitly stated that “the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate in a safe and responsible manner, stressing the importance of upholding freedom of navigation, particularly in the South China Sea, as guaranteed by international law.”
In his address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Austin emphasized cooperation with allies, highlighting alliances as the U.S.’s greatest advantage in the Indo-Pacific region, ensuring stability, openness, and freedom. He also stressed that “only when Asia is secure can America be secure.”
Of course, Trump’s words are more direct – if the CCP dares to act against Taiwan, jeopardizing U.S. security, Beijing, too, will not be safe.