In recent times, the price of beef in the United States has been steadily increasing, and experts unanimously attribute this phenomenon not to political factors, but to consecutive years of drought leading to the lowest number of cattle in decades. As a result, consumers may find it difficult to see significant price reductions in the coming years, and prices may even continue to rise.
According to a report by “The Hill,” Dr. Derrell Peel, an agricultural economics professor and livestock marketing expert at Oklahoma State University, pointed out, “In the short term, no one can do anything about this. We don’t have enough cattle, and the reproductive cycle of cattle is long, so increasing the number of cattle will take a considerable amount of time, which will continue in the foreseeable future.”
Nate Rempe, President and CEO of Omaha Steaks, also shares the same view. He told the media that the number of cattle in the United States is at the lowest point in decades, while demand is extremely strong. The rebuilding of supply takes time, and these fundamental factors, rather than political factors, will continue to drive prices higher next year.
Regarding the debate in the U.S. political arena surrounding the rising price of beef, experts emphasize that drought is the main reason for the decrease in the cattle population. Data from the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service shows that the number of cattle in the United States has dropped to the lowest point in 75 years. Severe drought and high feed costs have forced ranchers to significantly reduce their herds, which is the fundamental reason for the current high prices.
Peel pointed out that the cattle industry itself is cyclical, usually regulating itself: when stocks are high, prices are low, and ranchers sell cattle; when stocks are low, prices rise, and ranchers retain cows to expand breeding. However, since 2019, the cattle population in the United States has been continuously decreasing, with consecutive droughts exacerbating this trend.
Peel further noted that market uncertainty has also slowed the pace of cattle rebuilding, including policy discussions on beef imports and grazing land, which have made producers more cautious. “Everyone is watching, and as a result, the pace of rebuilding has slowed down,” Peel said.
The Trump administration announced earlier this month that it would cancel beef import tariffs and signed related executive orders. Peel estimated that this measure will only have a slight easing effect on the price of ground beef, and consumers may find it difficult to perceive significant changes. The prices of high-end cuts such as steaks are unlikely to be affected by this in the next two to four years.
Rempe predicts that if the trend continues, by the end of 2026, the price of ground beef in the United States could reach $10 per pound. Peel also stated that the price of ground beef in some regions is already approaching this level, while the prices of other cuts are increasing even faster.
Both experts believe that for a substantial decline in beef prices in the U.S., it will likely take until the end of 2027.
Rempe said, “Americans need to prepare for a long battle.” Peel added that until the number of cattle recovers, hardly anyone can change this situation in the short term.