Starting from 2025, China will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan to babies born after January 1, 2025, until they reach the age of three. The official announcement of this plan on July 28 has sparked discussions on social media platforms.
The “Childcare Subsidy System Implementation Plan” in China, issued on July 28, specifies that starting from January 1, 2025, subsidies will be provided annually to infants and young children under the age of 3 who are born in accordance with laws and regulations. The subsidy will amount to 3600 yuan per child per year until the child turns three. Babies and toddlers born before January 1, 2025, who are not yet three years old, can also receive subsidies based on the number of months they are eligible for.
Upon investigating the reactions to this plan by mainland Chinese people on Weibo, the majority of netizens expressed skepticism. Many believe that while the subsidy carries symbolic meaning, its actual impact on encouraging childbirth is limited. A colleague from the WeChat public account “Uncle Lei Writes Stories” questioned, “Why only 3600 yuan? Is that enough to buy a few cans of imported milk powder?”
Some netizens described the subsidy as akin to giving a “50 yuan voucher for a Ferrari.” Others pointed out that it seems more like a celebratory gift rather than substantial compensation.
One netizen mentioned that the subsidy alone might not be enough to increase the birth rate significantly, considering the high cost of raising a child in areas such as medical care, education, and extracurricular activities. They emphasized that 3600 yuan a year is merely a drop in the bucket.
There were also comparisons made with European and Japanese countries where similar subsidies exist with higher amounts, yet low birth rates persist.
According to academic data, the cost of raising a child far exceeds what the subsidy can cover. A report released in February titled “China Child-Rearing Cost Report 2024” indicated that the average cost of raising a child from birth to age 17 in Chinese households (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is 538,000 yuan, and it would cost around 680,000 yuan up to a bachelor’s degree. Cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Zhejiang have the highest child-rearing costs, reaching 1.01 million yuan, 936,000 yuan, and 855,000 yuan, respectively.
Prior discussions among netizens on the amount of subsidy needed to encourage them to have children often suggested figures well above a million yuan.
Some netizens mocked the 3600 yuan subsidy, saying, “Don’t jump into the fire pit just for this ‘huge sum'”.
Before the implementation of the nationwide subsidy system, more than 20 provinces in China had explored localized childcare subsidies primarily targeting families with two or three children. For example, Inner Mongolia’s Hohhot city distributed 100,000 yuan over ten years to families with three children.
While the new nationwide childcare subsidy treats families with one, two, or three children equally, the effectiveness of this measure concerning factors like raising costs, housing pressures, and societal environment remains uncertain.
One netizen from Beijing calculated, “For a second child, you would need to upgrade from a two-bedroom apartment of 70 square meters to one of 85 square meters. The difference of 15 square meters would cost around 750,000 yuan, including transaction fees, totaling 1 million yuan. Raising a child costs around 50,000 yuan per year, totaling 900,000 yuan for 18 years. With additional expenses, it would roughly sum up to 1.9 million yuan, making having a second child feasible”.
Apart from economic factors, many netizens point out that low birth rates stem from shifts in societal norms and structural issues.
Some argue that excessive urbanization has led people to prioritize survival over starting families, resulting in life pressures exceeding those faced in conflict-ridden places like Afghanistan. The shift from agriculture to heavy industry not only leads to a declining population but also causes oversupply of industrial products, diminishing profits. Rural areas lack purchasing power, relying heavily on exports in exchange for imported agricultural products, further damaging domestic agriculture and pushing more rural inhabitants into urban areas, thereby lowering birth rates.
Moreover, the changing mindset of the younger generation, who prioritize personal quality of life and career advancement, plays a significant role in the declining birth rates. The unfriendly work environment towards women regarding childbirth causes concerns among females about balancing family and career, which is a crucial factor contributing to low birth rates.
There are calls for a comprehensive approach beyond cash subsidies, focusing on balancing educational resources, improving childcare services, and enhancing workplace protection for women, to create a complete support system for childbirth. This holistic approach could potentially increase the willingness of individuals to have children.