Recent events have shown that North Korea has become increasingly aggressive due to its imminent establishment of a military alliance with Russia. Not only has it dispatched troops to the battlefield in Ukraine, but it has also issued highly provocative threats against South Korea.
The agreement of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Russia and North Korea is essentially a strategic military alliance, clearly stating that if one party, either Russia or North Korea, engages in a conflict with a third party, the other will provide any necessary military assistance, including all resources deemed necessary for use. This treaty has already entered the activation process and is awaiting signature for it to come into effect.
On October 17, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a press conference in Brussels that North Korea is becoming involved in the war in Ukraine, preparing to dispatch tens of thousands of soldiers to fight alongside Russia. This development, at a time of heightened tension between Kyiv and Moscow, is expected to escalate the conflict significantly. Zelensky remarked, “What we know is that North Korea is ready to dispatch a force consisting of more than ten thousand troops of various units,” calling it the “first step to a world war.” This marks a significant escalation of North Korea’s involvement in warfare alongside its primary ally, Russia.
The Kremlin, however, refuted reports of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces, dismissing them as fake news.
According to reports, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been training in Russia’s Far East region, preparing to join the war in Ukraine by the end of this year to help compensate for Russia’s increasing manpower losses.
Ukrainian media reported on the 15th that approximately 3,000 North Koreans would join the Bryat camp, affiliated with the Russian Armed Forces’ 11th Independent Airborne Assault Brigade. The Bryat camp may be deployed near the town of Suvaz in the occupied Ukrainian territory of Kursk in Russia, where some North Korean soldiers have already been observed. Andrey Kovalenko, Director of the Ukrainian Anti-Disinformation Center, mentioned that North Koreans may also be entering Ukrainian territory for combat.
The prospect of a sizable North Korean military force joining Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine seems inevitable, with the remaining question being when this will occur. Once the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between North Korea and Russia officially takes effect, there will be little to stop the comprehensive escalation of military assistance between Moscow and Pyongyang, further impacting the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Currently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is undergoing significant shifts, indicating a possible direction towards a scenario resembling comprehensive hostile actions.
On October 18, the North Korean state media, KCNA, reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared South Korea as an enemy state. The previous day, KCNA announced that the North Korean National Assembly had amended its constitution, designating South Korea as an “enemy state.” This signifies Kim Jong-un’s complete abandonment of the goal of Korean Peninsula unification.
Regarding this week’s event of blowing up the road and rail connections between North and South Korea, Kim Jong-un stated that this signifies not only physical closure but also the end of relations with Seoul, the complete elimination of useless compatriot consciousness, and unreasonable reunification ideas.
Initially, North Korea announced plans to modify its maritime border with South Korea, moving it further south. Seoul made it clear it was prepared to defend the border at all costs. During this time, Pyongyang accused South Korea of using unidentified drones to distribute leaflets. They warned that any further drone activity in the area would have catastrophic consequences. Subsequently, artillery units stationed along the border went into full alert, and the two roads connecting North and South Korea were destroyed.
The exact scale of the North Korean army remains unknown, but reports indicate it has conducted six nuclear tests and more frequent missile tests, including ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. Its conventional forces number over 1.1 million.
Despite its outdated technology and equipment, the North Korean army may not be a match for South Korea in terms of conventional capabilities. While South Korea does not possess nuclear weapons, it benefits from the extended nuclear deterrence strategy of the United States and has some capacity for nuclear deterrence against North Korea. In recent years, as North Korea’s provocations have escalated, there have been increasing calls in South Korea for Seoul to possess its own nuclear weapons, urging the U.S. to pay more attention to the implementation of extended deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.
In reality, the conventional military capabilities possessed by the U.S. and South Korea, particularly their long-range precision strikes and point-target elimination capabilities against fortified positions, have created a significant deterrent against North Korea. The key lies in the advanced yet relatively small South Korean military, which, in a conflict with North Korea, must achieve its military objectives within the shortest possible timeframe to neutralize the combat capability of the significantly larger North Korean army. Should the objectives not be achieved swiftly, there is still a chance for the North Korean army to inflict significant damage on Seoul.
In contrast, the technologically deficient North Korean military, utilizing nuclear weapons, conventional arms, its disproportionately large troop numbers, and the unique geographical positioning, partially compensates for its technological shortcomings. Concerns remain regarding the development of its massive weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. It’s not that the North Korean military is formidable, but it does possess the capability to cause severe destruction to Seoul.
The demilitarized zone between North and South Korea, 4 kilometers wide and 250 kilometers long along the 38th parallel, is one of the most heavily mined defense lines, with fortifications on both sides. A conflict between North and South Korea would result in astronomical casualties. The issue is that Seoul is only 40 kilometers from the non-military zone, with densely populated areas just 10 kilometers away from this narrow buffer. In wartime, North Korea could potentially inflict significant casualties on Seoul’s population and cause massive urban destruction by utilizing conventional artillery.
In the various scenarios envisioned by the Pentagon for intervening in a North-South Korea conflict, it is nearly impossible to defeat North Korea without significant losses to Seoul. The U.S. and South Korea are likely considering how to counter North Korea’s invasion with minimal losses, rather than solely aiming to defeat the North Korean military or eliminate the Kim regime.
On the other hand, the credibility of the commitment to ending the Kim regime could also have a substantial deterrent effect. This might force Kim Jong-un to resort to verbal threats only or symbolically destroy buildings and roads related to South Korea within its borders to show a resolve to confront South Korea.
However, the existence of the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between North Korea and Russia, similar to the alliances between the U.S. and South Korea or NATO, has emboldened Kim Jong-un and dramatically heightened the confrontational stance against South Korea.
Nevertheless, Western analysts believe that the historical nature of the Russia-North Korea relationship makes this alliance more likely to be a temporary strategic move, far more fragile than people imagine. This relationship seems grounded in Russia’s urgent need to maintain its weapons and ammunition supply for the war in Ukraine. Once circumstances change in Ukraine or North Korea depletes its artillery and missile stockpiles, North Korea will immediately lose its leverage in cooperating with Russia.
Under the high-profile umbrella of this “comprehensive strategic partnership,” Kim Jong-un seems to be attempting to pursue confrontations on two fronts simultaneously. On one hand, sending troops to Ukraine to earn Russian hard currency and technology, which is likely to lead to war with Ukraine, turning into expendable pawns for Russia. On the other hand, engaging in an unwinnable armed conflict with South Korea, potentially leading to the downfall of the Kim regime.