The highly contagious avian flu has caused severe damage to the American egg market, leading to a shortage of eggs in the United States. This situation is expected to persist for several months, with egg prices continuing to rise and potentially breaking the record set two years ago.
In just November and December alone, 17.2 million egg-laying hens died due to the virus. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, this accounts for nearly half of all poultry deaths in 2024 due to the virus, and it will take several months to replenish these lost poultry flocks.
The average wholesale price of a dozen Grade A large eggs in the US was $4.15 in December 2024, significantly higher than the $2.51 in December 2023.
In addition to the outbreak of avian flu driving up egg prices, laws regarding cage-free eggs in some states have also contributed to the price increase.
According to CNN, Emily Metz, President and CEO of the American Egg Industry Association, stated, “The issue of egg shortage is not something that can be resolved in a day or two; it will take six to nine months, leading to intermittent shortages in certain local markets.”
A decrease in egg-laying hens means fewer eggs, increased empty store shelves, and rising prices.
At a King Cullen supermarket in Long Island, New York, a sign on empty egg shelves reads, “Due to avian flu, some egg varieties may be temporarily out of stock.”
Publix, with nearly 1,500 grocery stores primarily in the southern US, confirmed facing egg shortages. The company stated, “Some products are in limited supply, and we are working hard to replenish the inventory as soon as possible.”
Extreme weather across the country has delayed and altered the flight paths of wild birds, the primary carriers of the virus. Over the past two months, avian flu has spread to dairy farms and infected nearby poultry farms.
Metz explained, “Last year, hurricanes in the southeastern US actually swept these wild birds away and blew them back into areas they had already flown over. This provided the virus with greater opportunities for spread.”
Due to seasonal demand and the current avian flu epidemic, egg prices were expected to rise around the holidays. However, with the holidays passing, egg supply has not stabilized but decreased, leading to reduced shelf inventory and further price hikes.
Steve Schwartz, Director of Sales and Marketing at Morton Williams, told CNN, “Our costs are soaring; it’s insane.”
Since December, all egg categories at this supermarket chain in the tristate area around New York have seen price increases.
Schwartz noted that although the chain buys eggs from six egg distributors through various channels, prices remain unsettling.
In mid-October, a dozen regular eggs at Morton Williams were priced at $2.38. This week, they paid $5.48 to distributors with a 70-cent discount.
Patrick Penfield, a professor at Syracuse University’s Whitman School of Management and supply chain expert, told Nexstar Media that egg prices could increase by 20% by the end of the year.
This means that by the end of 2025, the average wholesale price of a dozen large eggs may approach $5, marking the highest average price for a dozen eggs in history.
The last time egg prices surged was in January 2023 when the average wholesale price for a dozen large eggs was $4.82. By August 2023, the average price had dropped to $2.04.
Penfield predicts that egg prices could surpass this record as early as February.
In addition to avian flu, several states have enacted laws requiring all eggs sold to be cage-free, meaning chickens are not raised in cages. Even without an avian flu outbreak, these eggs typically command higher prices than regular eggs.