Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida surprised many on Wednesday (14th) by calling a sudden press conference to announce that he will not run for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the expected election in early September. This means that Japan will see a change in leadership come September, a decision that has sent shockwaves through the Japanese political landscape.
Why did Kishida decide not to seek re-election as prime minister? Who are the most likely candidates to succeed him? And what will be the candidate’s policies towards China? What kind of changes will Japan’s political landscape face?
Yasuta Akihiko, a senior media figure in Japan, stated in an interview with reporters that while many were surprised by Kishida’s decision not to seek re-election, it also makes sense upon closer inspection. He noted that during his three years in office, Kishida achieved notable milestones, such as successfully hosting the G7 summit in his hometown of Hiroshima, significantly increasing the defense budget, and delivering speeches in English in the U.S., earning praise from the international community.
Kishida strengthened Japan’s alliance with the U.S. during his term and also enhanced cooperation with countries such as the Philippines, Australia, South Korea, and NATO. With the push from Washington, Kishida also managed to mend the strained relations between Japan and South Korea.
Another key point in Kishida’s foreign policy was his explicit support for Taiwan. He has warned multiple times at international forums that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia.” Many see this statement as implying the danger of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Daniel Sneider, an East Asia policy expert at Stanford University, told Voice of America, “I think (Fumio Kishida) has exceeded Abe in many ways.” Japan “has moved away from its decades-old security policy that strictly adhered to narrow self-defense.”
However, Yasuta Akihiko pointed out that Kishida faced challenges domestically, such as the depreciation of the yen, high inflation, and various scandals within the LDP, leading to a consistently low approval rating of around 25%. His decision earlier this year to dissolve the major factions within the LDP had alienated most of the party’s heavyweights, further diminishing his standing within the party.
Nevertheless, Yasuta noted that Kishida holds the support of nearly 50 parliamentary members, and by withdrawing from the election, he has become the focal point for all candidates to vie for. With his announcement, the various factions within the LDP began to mobilize, and the prelude to the leadership election commenced.
Addressing why Kishida chose to step down at this time, Chen Wenjia, director of the National and Regional Development Research Center at Kai Nan University, stated to reporters that the main reasons stem from internal pressures, including economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, social issues stemming from an aging population, and the rising defense expenditures. Additionally, internal factional struggles within the LDP further weakened his leadership authority.
Chen Wenjia also noted that due to Kishida’s tough stance against China, he clashed with Japan’s largest economic federation, the Keidanren, which leans towards maintaining close ties with China, thereby undermining his support in the political and business sectors.
According to Yasuta Akihiko’s observation, Kishida’s staunch anti-Communist stance can be seen in last September’s new cabinet lineup, where the dovish and pro-China factions disappeared. He began to appoint new faces significantly and even retained several potential contenders for prime minister in cabinet and LDP positions, such as Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Sanae Takaichi, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and Foreign Minister Akiko Santo, showcasing Kishida’s confidence in laying the groundwork for “long-term governance.”
Yasuta Akihiko mentioned that it’s hard to predict who is the most likely to become Japan’s next prime minister among the seven candidates. However, the current popular contenders for succession include Shigeru Ishiba (former Defense Minister), Sanae Takaichi, Taro Kono, and Toshimitsu Motegi (current LDP Secretary-General), who have declared their intention to run. Shinjiro Koizumi (former Environment Minister), Takanori Kobayakawa (former Economic Security Minister), and Yoko Kamikawa might also join the race.
He personally believes that among the seven candidates, Shigeru Ishiba has the highest approval rating and a chance to secure over half of the party members’ votes to advance to the second round of the election. However, with few friends among the parliamentary members, Ishiba is likely to face a combined opposition in the second round from powerful factions not in favor of him.
Shigeru Ishiba made a visit to Taiwan on August 13, meeting with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te on the 14th and expressing his intention to run for office in Taipei. Ishiba emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine war is in a quagmire with no end in sight. In Japan, there is a saying, “Today’s Ukraine may be tomorrow’s East Asia.” Therefore, the urgent task is to prevent today’s Ukraine from becoming tomorrow’s East Asia, and it is only by demonstrating a strong deterrence that the democratic camp can maintain regional peace and stability.
However, Chen Wenjia cautioned that if Ishiba runs, he will face two major challenges: how to garner support within the faction-dominated party, especially since the “Ishiba faction” is the smallest within the LDP, and addressing loyalty questions raised by his previous withdrawal from the party, which could weaken his ability to garner broad support within the party. Despite Ishiba’s current high public approval ratings, he might find it challenging to secure votes in a situation where circumstances outweigh personal qualities.
As for the other candidate likely to advance to the second round, Yasuta Akihiko believes it will most likely be Shinjiro Koizumi, Toshimitsu Motegi, or Takanori Kobayakawa. He joked that 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi is well-regarded and often likened to Japan’s Chiang Wan-an, as the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, making him a political scion. However, he delivered a mediocre performance during his tenure as Environment Minister, so there aren’t particularly high expectations for him this time.
Regarding the candidates’ China policies, Chen Wenjia’s view is that while Shigeru Ishiba, Taro Kono, and Toshimitsu Motegi each have different diplomatic styles and positions, all three tend to approach China cautiously and have not shown signs of deep ties with or support from the Chinese Communist Party. If elected, they are likely to continue the current China policy, prioritizing Japan’s national interests and security requirements in the international strategy.
“Under Taro Kono’s known tough stance towards China, if he takes office, Japan-China relations may further tense up; Toshimitsu Motegi is known for his pragmatism and will maintain a tough stance on security policies while seeking cooperation with China in the economic sphere,” Chen Wenjia previously analyzed for Radio Free Asia.
“Shigeru Ishiba is regarded as a hardliner on defense and security policies, having repeatedly called for strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities to counter threats from China. If Shigeru Ishiba assumes office, he will take more assertive measures in the military and security fields, intensifying tensions between China and Japan,” stated Yasuta Akihiko.
Yasuta Akihiko noted that Japan is, after all, a democratic country with a significant portion of the population not favoring China. There is always public surveillance, so leaning too much towards China or getting too close is unlikely.
Chen Wenjia added that as of July 2024, the faction situation within the LDP includes 262 Lower House members and 115 Upper House members, totaling 377 parliamentary members. The major faction distribution is as follows: The Shinwa Policy Research Institute (Abe faction) has 98 members, the Hiroike Association (Kishida faction) 50 members, the Shikokai (Aso faction) 47 members, the Heisei Research Institute (Nikai faction) 43 members, about 40 members have no faction affiliation, and the Suigetsukai (Ishiba faction) has 15 members.