Since the lifting of pandemic restrictions, the capacity of foreign airlines operating to and from China has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels. Some airlines, including British Airways and Qantas Airways, have even started withdrawing flights from the Chinese market. The main reasons for foreign airlines’ withdrawal include subdued travel demand in China, airline routes, and geopolitical factors.
On Thursday, British Airways announced that it would temporarily suspend flights from London to Beijing for a year starting from the end of October, citing commercial reasons. Last month, British Airways also suspended one of its two daily flights from London to Hong Kong for a year.
According to Cirium flight schedule data analyzed by Reuters, international flight operations by Chinese airlines, including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, in July reached 90% of the levels seen in July 2019.
In contrast, foreign airlines were only operating at 60% of their pre-pandemic flight capacity, indicating a gradual withdrawal from the Chinese market.
Virgin Atlantic announced in July that it would indefinitely cancel its London-Shanghai route starting from the end of October due to extended flight times. Royal Brunei Airlines will suspend its twice-weekly flights to Beijing from October due to “market conditions.”
In May, Qantas announced it would suspend flights to Shanghai from July 28 due to low travel demand in China. However, it will launch a new route from Brisbane to Manila in late October and increase flights to Singapore.
Currently, the only direct flight between Mexico and China is operated by a Chinese airline, as Mexican airlines have not resumed routes post-pandemic.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr recently stated that the group’s weak operations in Asia were not due to a lack of economic opportunities but rather an “oversupply of capacity by Chinese airlines.”
On August 2, data from OAG revealed that flight frequency between the US and China in July was only 23.6% of that in July 2019, with an occupancy rate of 25%.
During the 2022 Ukraine conflict, Chinese airlines continued to use a shorter northern route via Russian airspace to Europe and North America. In contrast, European, American, and other airlines were either banned from entering Russian airspace by the Russian or their own governments or chose not to fly over Russia due to safety concerns.
According to Reuters, John Grant, a senior analyst at OAG, stated, “In general, Chinese airlines have costs more than 30% lower than their international competitors.”
Flight tracker Flightradar24 data shows that British Airways’ Beijing-London flights operate four days a week, taking approximately 2.5 hours longer than China Southern Airlines’ daily flights on the same route inaugurated last year.
On April 11, the Airlines for America (A4A) and major airline unions in the US urged the Biden administration to halt further approval of increased flights between the US and China, citing the “ongoing anti-competitive policies of the Chinese government.” Representatives from carriers like American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines pointed out that Chinese airlines had an advantage by flying over Russian airspace while US airlines were banned from Russian airspace following the March 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Some flights to and from China have been hindered by geopolitical issues. Due to border disputes, passenger flights between India and China have not resumed since the outbreak of the pandemic.
After the suspension of the 2020 bilateral air service agreement, the number of flights between China and the US is only about one-fifth of that in 2019.
Cirium data shows that flight authorizations between the two countries have gradually increased, but US airlines operate only 35 round-trip flights per week out of the 50 approved flights, while Chinese airlines now operate up to 49 round-trip flights per week.
United Airlines announced last month that it had reallocated capacity away from China due to a “significant” decline in travel demand to China, redirecting it to other parts of the Asia-Pacific region.
In a report released on May 23 by the Australian research consulting firm CAPA-Center for Aviation, in 2019, the US was China’s sixth-largest international source of capacity, but by 2024, it had fallen to the 13th position. While all the top 15 international markets were below pre-pandemic levels, the largest gap was observed in the US market.
Despite an increase in international passenger traffic in China since the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions, the country’s recovery has been slower compared to other nations due to economic downturn, as Chinese citizens have shifted towards domestic travel.
Cirium data indicates a 23% decrease in the number of flights departing from China in July compared to the same period in 2019.
The South China Morning Post reported on August 5 that Ker Gibbs, resident executive director of the Asia-Pacific Business Research and Innovation Center at the University of San Francisco, pointed out that young Americans viewed job opportunities in China as limited, while Chinese tourists lacked funds for travel in the United States. He mentioned that “Chinese who usually consider going abroad for vacation do not consider themselves wealthy, which makes them unwilling to spend money on long-distance travel.”
Gibbs added that reduced business travel was also a result of concerns by both sides’ investors that the other party might take an opposing stance on their investments.
It’s not only the US; the number of foreign visitors traveling to China has significantly decreased. In May of this year, BBC Chinese reported that the number of foreign visitors traveling to China was only around 30% of the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.