As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, heavyweight figures in European politics are vying for the position of the next chief diplomat of the European Union, seeing this position as a strategic opportunity to expand power.
The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission, commonly known as the EU High Representative, is responsible for chairing regular meetings of the foreign, defense, and development ministers of the 27 EU countries, and representing the EU at G7 and G20 ministerial meetings.
Currently held by Josep Borrell of Spain, this position will be vacated as part of senior position adjustments following the EU elections.
Although the title of EU High Representative holds prestige, critics argue that the position lacks real power, as the EU generally does not rely on the diplomat to accomplish tasks, but rather leans on their superior, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
However, politicians from some smaller member states see value in securing this position. Countries in the Baltic region, led by Estonia, hope to have a greater voice in EU foreign policy, especially in taking a tougher stance on future relations with Russia. Other politicians nearing the end of their domestic political careers hope to prolong their political lives by joining the EU system.
At a meeting held earlier this month in Florence, when asked about who he thought was suitable to succeed him in the position, Borrell diplomatically replied that “choosing a successor” was not his job.
Several former government heads have set their sights on this position.
If one of them ultimately takes on this role, it will be the first time since the position was established in 2009 that a former government head assumes it.
Moreover, given that this position has historically been held by major powers (UK, Italy, and Spain), and this time it is likely to be filled by a politician from a smaller country, many diplomats see this as a positive breakthrough, considering the major powers typically have larger agendas.
The highest-ranking position within the EU system is that of the President of the European Commission. With the European People’s Party (EPP) expected to remain the largest party after the elections, they are likely to secure this position. The Socialists, as part of the current alliance, are expected to secure the second-highest position, nominating a Council President. The Renew Europe party group is expected to be able to nominate a candidate for the position of EU High Representative.
Renew Europe is a liberal, pro-European political group within the European Parliament, established for the ninth term of the European Parliament. Its predecessor was the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) party.
Below is the list of candidates for the next EU High Representative:
Regarding this position, the Prime Minister of Estonia is highly anticipated in Brussels.
Three French officials are directly involved in understanding the situation of candidates for the EU High Representative. They confirmed to Politico that Emmanuel Macron’s office has been considering Karas as a possible successor to Borrell, although all three officials also indicated that the French President is open to other options.
An aide from Renew Europe party group stated, “There is a good understanding between Macron and Karas, she is well liked, and their views are very similar.” The French President is actively supporting Karas’s proposal to establish a defense industrial fund.
They added, “She is clearly seen as a strong figure within the Renew Europe group; she has a powerful voice, and her influence extends beyond her country.”
An unnamed Eastern European senior official also confirmed that colleagues from Estonia have acknowledged Macron’s favoritism towards Karas. The official said, “They say Macron gave a nod earlier this year.”
In February, Karas attended a Ukraine aid conference hosted by the French President in Paris, and met with Macron again in May. During a recent visit, she praised Macron’s speech on the future of Europe as “very, very good.”
However, the decision is far from being finalized.
EU member states further away from Russia generally distrust criticisms from the Baltic region towards Russia, with concerns that Karas may focus too much on Russia and neglect other regions of the world.
A Southern European diplomat said, “I understand the logic of having an Eastern European in the top position,” but “we need someone who can also talk about Africa or South America, not just Russia.”
The Belgian Prime Minister has been leading a diverse seven-party coalition, but after the Belgian elections on June 9, he is unlikely to continue. He has built many friendly relationships with his counterparts in the European Council and raised his international profile during Belgium’s presidency of the EU Council. He has also visited and met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden.
However, he is not the frontrunner. Firstly, considering that his party is expected to perform poorly in the elections, it would be tricky for Belgium to nominate him for a position in the EU Commission. Secondly, cooperation experiences between Belgium’s liberal party members and the current President of the European Council, Charles Michel, have not been pleasant. Furthermore, there is a sense in Eastern Europe that the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg) has held many senior positions in the EU in the past.
Wilmes, a former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Belgium, is now being linked to the position of the EU High Representative.
Wilmes stepped down from public office in 2022 to care for her ill husband. She is now participating in the EU elections, being a top candidate on the list of the Reformist Movement party in the French-speaking area. However, her primary focus remains on Belgian politics, and local officials expect her to use the European stage to return to the domestic arena, possibly even reclaiming the Prime Minister’s seat. She has had a close relationship with Charles Michel in the past, which might work against her in vying for a key position in Brussels.
Many concerns of the Belgians also apply to Bettel, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and current Foreign Minister. Bettel’s predecessor as Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, served as the President of the European Commission until 2019. Similar to Wilmes, there are others in Luxembourg eyeing the position of EU High Representative.
Moreover, given Bettel’s tendency to be unpredictable, European diplomats and officials worry that he may not be the most suitable diplomatic candidate for the position.
An EU senior diplomat stated, “He seems like a good guy to have a beer with, but I doubt many would entrust him with diplomatic affairs.”
The Polish Foreign Minister is widely seen as eyeing several senior EU positions.
Szczerski is a popular candidate for the role of the EU’s first-ever Defense High Representative, and it is said that he is also open to other EU positions, such as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
Supporters argue that he has proven himself as an effective communicator, including his rebuttal of Russia’s false information during a UN conference in February.
However, this experienced Polish politician faces a significant obstacle: he comes from the European People’s Party (EPP), not Renew Europe, meaning that if von der Leyen or other EPP politicians take over the European Commission, he is unlikely to secure a position in foreign policy.
Martin, a former Irish Prime Minister, is also one of the candidates for the EU High Representative. His party, Fianna Fáil, is a member of Renew Europe, and also forms part of the Dublin coalition government, giving him priority to nominate the next Irish EU Commissioner. Martin has been leading his party since 2011, and with the Irish elections approaching, he may consider a move to Brussels. However, Ireland’s neutral position and its lack of military support for Ukraine may work against him, despite Ireland being one of the countries with the highest per capita acceptance of Ukrainian refugees.
(This article is based on reporting from Politico)