Ukraine has lost its first F-16 fighter jet, piloted by a Ukrainian ace nicknamed “Moonfish.” The pilot intercepted three Russian cruise missiles and a drone before the aircraft crashed, resulting in the pilot’s unfortunate death. The pilot, whose real name is Oleksii Meles, was an advocate for Western societies providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. He even traveled to the United States, posed for a photo with American congressional members like Kissinger, and was among the first to receive training in the US.
There are two speculations regarding the accident. Firstly, the plane was reportedly destroyed by Russian long-range missiles at a Ukrainian airport, as per a report by The Wall Street Journal. Preliminary findings indicate the aircraft was not downed by enemy fire, implying the incident may not be directly linked to Russia.
The second speculation revolves around a mid-air mishap. However, in case of an in-flight accident, the pilot should have had sufficient time to eject safely. The lack of such an opportunity suggests the mechanical failure was particularly severe, causing the pilot’s immediate death or damaging the ejection system.
Nevertheless, a third speculation exists, suggesting fratricide. Up to this point, the Ukrainian frontline air force has not established an effective enemy identification system. Prior to the onset of the war, the Royal United Services Institute in the UK published a detailed report on the Ukrainian conflict, highly recommended for its comprehensive, profound, and objective analysis.
The report highlights a crucial detail about Ukraine’s frontline air defense system, wherein the Ukrainian airspace is divided into zones. In Zone A, air defense forces are solely responsible, while Ukrainian fighter jets refrain from entering to avoid friendly fire. In Zone B, Ukrainian fighter jets intercept independently, with air defense systems refraining from opening fire.
This system’s design roots in Ukraine’s lack of an enemy identification system, where the air defense system struggles to differentiate between friendly and enemy aircraft. Ukraine primarily employs Cold War-era Russian-built MiG-29 fighter jets and air defense systems such as the S-300 and Buk from the Soviet era, which are ineffective at distinguishing friend from foe.
It’s crucial to note that the F-16 was on a mission to intercept Russian large-scale airstrikes, having already intercepted three cruise missiles and a drone before the crash. During such Russian airstrikes, Ukrainian air defense forces must operate efficiently, with ground radars detecting enemy missiles and various systems like the S-300, Patriot, and Buk launching missiles to intercept aerial targets.
In such a scenario, if the Ukrainian air defense forces fail to establish effective enemy identification with the air force, amidst the chaos, they could mistakenly lock onto their own fighter jets and shoot them down.
In a report from the Associated Press, on the day Ukrainian Air Force Commander Oleksiuk was dismissed, he criticized a deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliamentary defense committee. The deputy claimed the F-16 was shot down by the Patriot air defense system.
If Ukraine’s fighter jet was indeed downed by its own air defense system, it could explain two things. Firstly, the lack of time for the pilot to eject indicates a missile struck the plane, potentially damaging the ejection system or resulting in instant pilot fatality. Secondly, it clarifies President Zelensky’s swift action in dismissing the Ukrainian Air Force commander. On August 30, 2021, Zelensky announced the replacement of General Oleksiuk with Lieutenant General Kryvonosvko, acting as the Air Force Commander.
In Ukraine’s military structure, the air defense forces fall directly under the air force’s jurisdiction. During the Soviet era, the air defense forces existed independently from the air force and army. In the early days of Ukrainian independence, the Soviet-era structure was maintained. However, subsequent military reforms integrated all air defense forces into the Ukrainian Air Force, overseen by the air force for operations.
This implies that the aircraft in the air belongs to the air force, and those operating the air defense systems on the ground are also part of the air force. Failure to implement proper enemy identification systems within the air force could lead to incidents like the downing of the newly acquired F-16 fighter jet, ultimately holding the air force commander accountable.
Previously, the Ukrainian Air Force has experienced losses of fighter jets like the MiG-29 and Su-27, with casualties considered normal in combat situations. Therefore, General Oleksiuk remained in his position for four years without being dismissed due to any aircraft incidents. However, his immediate dismissal suggests a significant incident within the Ukrainian Air Force resulting in the fighter jet mishap.
The investigation into this incident is ongoing. Personal speculation on friendly fire causing the downing of the Ukrainian F-16 aside, the unfolding events require close observation. For the Ukrainian Air Force to effectively utilize the F-16 fighter jet, establishing a robust enemy identification system is imperative. While Russia experienced instances of downing its own aircraft at the war’s beginning, there have been no recent reports in the past year. Ukraine has a long road ahead in optimizing the F-16’s capabilities.
The importance of an enemy identification system is evident from various military history examples, such as in the Gulf War when the US’ F-15 achieved vast success in downing Iraqi aircraft compared to the Navy’s F-14. The difference in success can be attributed to the presence of advanced enemy identification systems in the F-15, allowing coordinated operations with allied forces. On the contrary, the F-14 lacked upgraded radar and the NCTR system, limiting its combat capabilities and relegating it to patrol missions rather than frontline combat tasks.
When evaluating weapon systems, crucial parameters like speed, turn radius, maximum range, and detection distance are often emphasized. Yet, subsystems like the enemy identification system, optical systems, and electronic countermeasures are equally critical as they determine a weapon’s effectiveness on the battlefield.
While the investigation into the Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet incident continues, the possibility of being shot down by friendly air defense systems remains speculative, requiring further observation for the situation’s development. To maximize the F-16 fighter jet’s effectiveness, the Ukrainian Air Force must prioritize the establishment of a reliable enemy identification system. With Russia facing self-inflicted aircraft downings at the war’s outset, it’s crucial that Ukraine learns from such incidents to enhance its combat capabilities.
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