Following the first round of voting in the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 30th, which saw Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), emerge as the winner according to exit polls, all eyes are now on the upcoming second round of voting on July 7th and the potential scenarios that may unfold.
The French National Assembly election for 577 seats is conducted in two rounds. In constituencies where no candidate secured more than half of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates along with any candidate who received support from over 12.5% of the registered voters in that constituency will advance to the second round.
The candidate with the most votes in the second round will win the seat. With a high voter turnout on Sunday, it is estimated that around 300 constituencies could face three-way runoffs, theoretically favoring the National Rally.
To prevent three-way runoffs and thwart the National Rally, centrist and left-wing politicians in France have long practiced what they call the “Republican front” strategy, where the third-ranked candidate withdraws from the race and urges their supporters to back the second-ranked candidate.
All candidates heading into the second round must decide by Tuesday evening whether to withdraw or proceed with the runoff.
On Sunday night, many political leaders provided guidance for candidates and voters. President Emmanuel Macron called for “broad unity in support of the Republic and democracy” behind the candidates in the race, effectively advising on how to counter the far-right National Rally and the far-left party France Unbowed (LFI).
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe of Macron’s government explicitly urged his party’s candidates to withdraw if they were in third place and unite around centrist to leftist candidates, excluding the National Rally and France Unbowed.
On the left, leaders of the Socialist Party and France Unbowed also urged their third-ranked candidates to step aside to block the National Rally.
The conservative Republicans did not offer any specific guidance, as the party experienced divisions prior to the vote, with a few members aligning with the National Rally.
Over the years, the effectiveness of the Republican front has waned, with many voters no longer heeding the advice of party leaders.
While Paris’ political headquarters provided guidance, candidates may still refuse to withdraw.
The next 48 hours of negotiations will be crucial and could significantly impact the election outcome, potentially determining whether the National Rally can achieve an outright majority in parliament.
This uncertainty has made predicting the outcome of the second round of elections difficult, even leading polling agencies to approach their forecasts with caution.