In early August, the first F-16 “Fighting Falcon” arrived in Ukraine, and since then, people have been eagerly anticipating more news about it. On October 12, initial reports from a Russian military blog claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet had shot down a Russian Su-34 attack aircraft on the frontlines. While there has been no official confirmation from both Russia and Ukraine yet, this news has certainly lifted spirits.
If the reports are true, this would mark the first aerial victory of F-16 in the Ukrainian conflict. The F-16 is considered a crucial part of the NATO support to Ukraine, with its role initially expected to provide air defense capabilities against Russian drones and missile attacks. However, the latest developments suggest that the F-16 may have exceeded expectations by demonstrating effectiveness against Russian aircraft, aligning with its design purpose.
The Russian combat aviation channel on Telegram reported that the incident occurred on October 12 in Ukrainian airspace approximately 30 miles from the frontlines. They paid tribute to the downed Su-34 and its crew using black and white photos. Additionally, they mentioned that “NATO has sent F-16s for hunting, and there will soon be more such losses. Therefore, our infantry losses will also increase.”
A significant part of the Kremlin’s official military blog criticizes the military leadership’s handling of the war while publicly supporting Putin’s endeavors. If the incident of the Su-34 being shot down is verified, the Russian military blog is likely to continue speaking candidly about the situation in Ukraine. It’s noteworthy that the blog directs its criticism towards the military’s incompetence rather than directly blaming Putin, highlighting the need to address military issues.
The approval of the transfer of F-16 fighter jets by US President Biden earlier this year has led countries like Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway to pledge over 90 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The first batch of a dozen aircraft arrived in Ukraine in early August.
Almost immediately upon their arrival in Ukraine, the “Fighting Falcons” began countering Russian missile and drone attacks on urban areas and critical infrastructure. During defense operations in late August, Ukraine reportedly lost one F-16 and a pilot, possibly due to pilot error.
The F-16 originated from the US Air Force’s Lightweight Fighter (LWF) program, originally designed to counter Soviet aircraft. From prototype to the latest production models, 138 different configurations have been produced. Continuous enhancements have refined advanced cockpit technologies, avionics, sensors, and weapon systems, making the fighter more reliable, easier to control, and maintain. The latest F-16 boasts increased range, payload capacity, and advanced electronic warfare capabilities, significantly enhancing its survivability.
Since its production began in 1976, over 4,600 various models of the F-16 have been manufactured. Although the US Air Force no longer procures the aircraft, Lockheed Martin continues production for foreign customers worldwide. It remains the most successful and combat-proven multirole fighter in history. Since its debut in 1979, the “Fighting Falcon” has conducted over 400,000 combat sorties, accumulating over 19 million flight hours.
In the recent incident, the shooting down of the Su-34 by the F-16 may not come as a surprise, but rather the unexpected presence of the Su-34 in Ukrainian-controlled airspace. The Su-34, with its focus on ground attack capabilities, faces significant risks crossing frontlines without air superiority cover, unlike most Russian aircraft primarily using glide bombs and missiles in relatively safer airspace for targeting Ukraine. In a confrontation with an F-16, the cumbersome Su-34 evidently is not a match for the F-16. The puzzling aspect lies in why the Su-34 dared to enter Ukrainian territory over the frontline. This behavior may be rationalized as Russian attempts to conduct more effective ground attacks, but it’s highly unlikely that it was specifically targeting the F-16.
Russia has long harbored animosity towards the F-16. When Ukraine acquired the F-16 fighter jets, Rostec, the Russian defense company, declared intentions to destroy these aircraft, claiming they would fall to Russian Su-35S or Su-57’s “guns.”
On August 5, a Rostec official told TASS, the Russian state news agency, that the F-16 was inadequate for the task, citing that the all-weather multi-role fighter was not as advanced as Russia’s current Air Force fighters. He argued, “If you look at the specifications of American aircraft, the conclusion is clear; it is not a match for the Su-35S, let alone the Su-57. In head-on aerial combat, our aircraft are superior to the American F-16.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had even offered rewards for Russian servicemen shooting down F-16 fighter jets. President Putin has shown disdain towards the F-16, stating earlier in March that it would not change the battlefield situation. However, he acknowledges that the F-16 is not to be taken lightly. He warned that the Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets are prolonging the conflict.
A notable aspect of Rostec’s statement is that the Russian Air Force has indeed received various Su-57 “Felons” models, an advanced fifth-generation stealth fighter with capabilities surpassing those of the F-16.
The Su-57 is a twin-engine stealth multirole fighter developed by the Russian defense giant Sukhoi in the early 2000s to replace the Su-27 and MiG-29. The aircraft features the AL-41F1 thrust vectoring turbofan engine, offering high maneuverability, short takeoff, network-centric operations, and a wide range of capabilities, aligning with characteristics of a fifth-generation fighter.
The Su-57 houses internal weapon bays capable of carrying up to 8 K-77M air-to-air missiles. In addition to air-to-air missiles, it is equipped with air-to-ground missiles for striking ground targets and executing long-range missions.
However, Russian Air Force aircraft, including the Su-57, have had limited presence in Ukrainian airspace, with most of their operations involving missile or bomb launches into Ukrainian-controlled territories from Russian airspace.
Given the circumstances, it seems unlikely that the Kremlin would deploy Su-57 or other aircraft deep into Ukrainian territory to confront the F-16, despite the perceived advantages Su-35 and Su-57 hold over the F-16. Moscow likely refrains from risking engaging with US fighters to avoid the propaganda defeat incurred by losing a Su-57 to an F-16 or Su-35 engaging in such risky combat.
In contrast, the Su-35 may be a closer match to the F-16, as an improved version of the Su-27 fighter, representing the best fighter available to the Russian Air Force aside from the Su-57 for air superiority. However, out of approximately 120 Su-35s, six have already been lost in the Ukrainian conflict, with most attributed to ground-based air defense systems.
In the Ukrainian war theater, there have been minimal dogfights between Russian and Ukrainian fighter jets, and even fewer beyond-visual-range aerial engagements, making it challenging to determine the superior skills of either side’s pilots. While the West doesn’t boast the F-16’s capabilities over the Su-35 or Su-57, Russia doesn’t deny that the F-16 poses a new threat to them.
Similar to Russia’s reluctance to put Su-35 or Su-57 at risk, Ukraine is cautious with regards to the F-16. Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk stated in an interview on October 14 that Ukraine’s current F-16 fleet is not numerous enough or competitive compared to Russian fighter jets. However, he emphasized that this is just the beginning and underscores the importance of Ukraine aligning its weaponry, theory, and concepts with NATO.
In June, a senior Ukrainian commander mentioned that Kyiv planned to deploy some F-16 fighter jets abroad to avoid Russian attacks on the aircraft. The few F-16s remaining in Ukrainian territory are primarily tasked with anti-aircraft operations against drones and missiles. Until the fleet reaches a substantial size, the Ukrainian Air Force is gradually getting accustomed to and utilizing these aircraft.
On October 13, President Zelensky stated that within a week, Russia’s use of over 900 guided aerial bombs against Ukraine. Kyiv could leverage the F-16 to strike back against Russian aircraft launching these bombs.
The F-16 can launch AIM-9X “Sidewinder” short-range air-to-air missiles and AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles. These combat-proven air-to-air missiles may offer cost-effective solutions against certain aerial threats, aiding in countering the Russian Air Force’s fleet. However, the F-16 cannot change the rules of the game, especially with a relatively small number of operating aircraft in Ukrainian service. Thus, Ukraine’s cautious approach in utilizing the F-16 makes sense under current circumstances.