After nearly 50 years, the first major strike by East Coast dock workers began on October 1st, potentially affecting the outcome of the US presidential election on November 5th. The first “October surprise” event that may influence the election results has occurred. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump’s campaign teams may also be preparing for more “October surprises”.
In the recent months leading up to the 2024 presidential election cycle, there have been enough shocking events, from Trump narrowly surviving two assassination attempts to President Biden withdrawing from reelection, and the last-minute change in leadership in the Democratic Party. Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist, joked to The Washington Observer, “It feels like every week will bring some kind of ‘October surprise’.”
However, this doesn’t mean that there won’t be more attention-grabbing “October surprises” in the final weeks leading up to the election day.
Former President Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign manager, William Casey, coined the term “October surprise” over forty years ago. Republican strategist Cesar Conda described that an “October surprise” typically involves “a war, an economic crisis, or a major political scandal”.
Conda told The Washington Observer, “Apart from the Middle East, China (CCP) has recently shown a lot of military threats in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea with the Philippines, as well as in the simulated nuclear retaliation from North Korea. The 2008 market collapse was a major economic crisis. The lesson we learned is that presidential candidates need to be prepared for anything to avoid falling into a PR nightmare close to the election.”
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northwestern University, stated that election campaigns always need to be prepared for the unexpected, or at least should be.
He told The Washington Observer, “If one campaign team or an external group has any real dirt on their opponents in their pockets, they can take action before the election day to cause the maximum damage. This is the time when many voters pay the most attention to the election, and when there is too little time to recover from such attacks. Even if the ‘October surprise’ never arrives, both campaign teams should be prepared to be ambushed or shift gears.”
Serious foreign tensions could also have a significant impact on US domestic politics and elections.
Concerns are mounting over the possibility of escalating conflict in the Middle East, as Israel and Hamas’ war in Gaza approaches its one-year mark on October 7th, extending into Lebanon.
It was reported that Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in a targeted attack on the Lebanese capital, Beirut, last week. Over the weekend, the Israeli Defense Forces conducted attacks against Hezbollah along the two countries’ shared border.
Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and most Western countries, and it is a Lebanon “militia” organization with capabilities comparable to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Israeli officials informed the White House on Monday (September 30th) that Israel might launch limited ground operations in Lebanon in the coming days. This has heightened concerns about a full-scale war erupting between the Israeli military and Hezbollah.
The escalation of this war could further deepen divisions within the Democratic Party, as there have been disagreements within the Biden administration’s past actions in supporting Israel, sparking serious protests from pro-Palestinian activists.
Efforts by the Biden administration to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have been unsuccessful, and if the war continues to escalate, it will pose a serious test for Kamala Harris as she prepares to succeed Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, if there were to be any military conflicts in the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, or South China Sea before the US election day, it could have a more adverse impact on the electoral prospects of the Democratic Party government in power.
Republican strategist Doug Heye believes that Hurricane “Helene” could be an “October surprise” event, depending on the death toll and recovery efforts.
Hurricane “Helene” made landfall in the southeastern United States on September 26th, wreaking havoc across Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, destroying critical infrastructure and leaving millions without power. Economic losses from “Helene” are estimated to reach billions of dollars, making it one of the most devastating hurricanes in modern US history.
White House Homeland Security Advisor Liz Sherwood-Randall reported at a press conference on September 30th that up to 600 people are still missing.
Trump and his supporters criticized Harris and Biden for not responding promptly to Hurricane “Helene” but continuing their campaign travels and beach vacations.
The political ramifications were immediate. Harris shortened her campaign events on the West Coast and returned to Washington DC to participate in a hurricane briefing. It is expected that she will visit the hurricane-affected areas in the coming days, while Trump visited the disaster site in Georgia on September 30th.
The storm’s destruction could potentially impede early voting, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia, where in-person early voting will begin in the next few weeks. Both states are highly contested and crucial battleground states that could sway the election results.
With labor negotiations breaking down, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing 45,000 dock workers, initiated their first major strike in nearly 50 years starting on October 1st. This strike will halt operations at 36 terminals and ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, affecting about half of the nation’s maritime shipping.
According to experts cited by Reuters, the economic losses caused by this strike could amount to billions of dollars per day, disrupting supply chains, threatening business productivity and employment, and exacerbating the already severe inflation.
The White House is eager for the strike not to last too long, but Biden and Harris have yet to come up with effective solutions to resolve the labor-management conflicts.
If the strike continues, it could also prove detrimental to Harris’ electoral prospects.
One of the most serious potential accidents in October this year could involve violence targeting political candidates, campaign staff, and election officials responsible for counting and handling votes.
Since July, Trump has been at the center of two attempted assassination incidents, raising concerns about political divisions escalating into violence. He was grazed by a bullet at a campaign rally in July and another gunman aimed at him at a golf course in September, where a Secret Service agent noticed the gunman and fired at him as he fled, leading to his eventual arrest.
A Virginia man was reported to have been arrested in late July for allegedly making death threats against Harris.
NBC News reported in September that election officials in at least six states received suspicious packages, with the FBI conducting investigations.
John Murphy, a professor at the University of Illinois who researches political discourse, recently told The Hill, “I am most concerned about the counting, the judges, and violence. There are very clear threat patterns here for who counts, votes, and judges.”
After each attempted assassination, both parties have called for lowering the political temperature, and the Secret Service has increased protection for Trump.
If there might be a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, it could potentially be an event that could shake up the presidential election.
The two already engaged in a heated debate on September 10th hosted by ABC. Following that, Harris accepted an invitation for a debate on October 23rd organized by CNN, urging Trump to join as well, but Trump has so far declined the invitation.
Trump claimed he won the first debate and expressed that only the losing side would demand a rematch. He later hinted that holding another debate now might be too late, as early voting has begun in some states.
Reportedly, some of Trump’s allies are urging him to reconsider the possibility of participating in a second debate with Harris, suggesting that if the Trump team believes his polling numbers could potentially improve as a result, Trump might still change his mind.
Trump’s senior advisor Jason Miller mentioned on September 30th that the upcoming October 1st debate would be the only debate left on the calendar. “President Trump has made his position very clear,” Miller stated.
“Kamala Harris had other opportunities to join a debate with President Trump before.” Miller added.
In the past two presidential elections, newly reported audio or video clips by news media have disrupted the electoral focus.
For the 2024 election, risks from new audio or video exposure are concentrated on Harris’ past far-left policy positions. For Trump, the exposure of video and audio from closed-door speeches to donors could potentially stir up controversy.
The latest focus of one such media storm is a photo: as the deadly Hurricane “Helene” swept through the US, Harris posted a work photo on social media taken aboard Air Force Two, the Vice President’s plane, indicating her being updated on the latest developments of Hurricane “Helene”.
In her caption, Harris stated, “Our government will continue to communicate with state and local officials to ensure communities get the support and resources they need.”
In the photo, Harris is seen seated at a table taking notes with an earpiece in one ear, and her iPhone in front of her. The photo circulated widely on October 1st, with many social media users noticing that her earpiece wire was not plugged into the phone.
Trump swiftly criticized the photo as a staged one, accusing Harris of “not knowing what she’s doing”.