Recently, the United States Intelligence Community (IC) based in Washington D.C. has concluded that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is attempting to influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, it remains uncertain whether Beijing’s goal is to support the Democratic candidate Joe Biden or the Republican candidate Donald Trump, or if they intend to disrupt the American democratic system altogether.
The IC’s “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community” report explains that new technologies are enabling Moscow and Beijing to shape discourse, opinions, and public policies. Citing the recent Gaza war between Hamas and Israel as an example, the report notes that this conflict “was intensified by China and Russia’s encouragement to diminish U.S. discourse on the global stage,” significantly impacting international cooperation on other pressing issues.
Of concern, the U.S. Intelligence Community states, “In this turbulent time, the direction in which the world is heading will be determined by the party presenting the most persuasive arguments, explaining how the world should be governed and how societies should be organized.”
Currently, both the CCP and Russia, particularly the CCP, are striving to dominate the global information space, influencing people’s thoughts and voting behaviors. The CCP’s efforts in this realm are undermining the quality of global democracy and can be tailored to benefit specific candidates, presenting a variety of tactics.
In a campaign known as “spamouflage,” thousands of fake social media accounts linked to the Chinese regime have been discovered. Ironically, these accounts, posing as Americans, often use Chinese language. They are active from 8:50 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Beijing time, which aligns with regular Chinese working hours, and appear to quiet down during the lunch hour. These accounts spread rumors, promote conspiracy theories, and incite dissent. Besides sowing chaos, they may also aim to influence the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election.
There is substantial evidence suggesting that the CCP would view a re-election of Donald Trump as unfavorable due to his hawkish stance towards China. During his presidency, Trump initiated trade wars and openly accused the CCP of engaging in deceitful trade practices, dumping, and coercion towards the U.S. and its allies. Trump increased arms sales to Taiwan during his tenure and became the first president since 1979 to station U.S. law enforcement personnel in Taiwan. Given Beijing’s potential concerns about a Trump presidency, the CCP is likely to utilize social media propaganda to aid President Joe Biden’s victory.
Contrary to the IC’s assessment, the Council on Foreign Relations, a prominent think tank based in New York, offers a different perspective. The Council suggests that the CCP might lean towards supporting Trump’s presidency as Trump is expected to face challenges in garnering consensus in the U.S. Congress if re-elected. While this holds true, any president, including Biden, could encounter a similar situation. With U.S. politics deeply divided, effective formulation of foreign policy is challenging unless one party controls both the presidency and a majority in both chambers of Congress. The delay in U.S. funding for Ukraine, as Biden sought additional funding while Republicans pushed for more southern border protection funding, illustrates how a divided Congress can hinder a president’s foreign policy objectives.
The Council on Foreign Relations points out another potential advantage for Beijing during Trump’s presidency – his failure to achieve international consensus. While strongmen and dictators may respect Trump and heed his opinions, some world leaders refuse to meet with President Biden, suggesting a lack of respect for the U.S. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S. diplomatic strength has surged to levels not seen in decades, possibly since the Cold War. The unity and cooperation among the U.S., the EU, key allies like Japan, Australia, the UK, as well as smaller but crucial partners like the Philippines and potentially Vietnam, stem from the world’s need for the protection offered by the American defense umbrella. Some European leaders, disliking Trump’s tweets, opt out of U.S.-led European defense initiatives to counter Russia, which appears tenuous.
Moreover, President Trump enhanced defense relations between the U.S. and its European and Asian allies during his tenure. He challenged NATO members to meet defense spending targets or face consequences, suggesting a more robust posture. Trump’s opposition to NATO primarily stemmed from two points – the belief that the U.S. should not bear the burden of funding European defense and that threats from regions like the Middle East and Asia were more pressing than those posed by Russia. This perspective aligns with the “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” which identifies the CCP as a larger threat. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose significant risks, especially considering the alignment of Iran, the CCP, and Russia. Thus, Trump’s view was for NATO to expand its mandate to address issues in the Middle East and confront threats like the CCP.
In conclusion, the core issue analyzed in this article is whether a Trump or Biden presidency would better serve CCP’s interests. However, the fundamental question lies in which candidate the CCP perceives as most aligned with its interests rather than a comparison of the governance ideologies of the two potential presidents. Therefore, the CCP is likely to support the candidate it deems most advantageous in achieving its objectives. Conversely, if the CCP’s aim is to disrupt democracy, sow chaos, and thwart other nations from embracing democratic values, they may superficially support a candidate while working to sow discord behind the scenes.