On Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for a rare third five-year term as the leader of the country with the world’s largest population, amid significant global political changes. India has become increasingly important on the international stage, and the judgments and decisions of Modi’s government in the new term are crucial for both cooperation partners and rival countries.
Thousands of dignitaries witnessed Modi and his new government ministers taking the oath of office at the presidential palace in India, in front of over 8,000 guests. High-profile attendees at Modi’s inauguration ceremony included leaders from seven regional countries, Bollywood stars, and business tycoons.
Throughout his previous two terms, Modi elevated India’s position on the global stage and solidified India’s role as a key security partner for the United States. However, domestically, Modi faces challenges such as insufficient job opportunities, high prices, low incomes, and religious divisions.
Modi’s re-election signifies that this 73-year-old leader has been given another five years to further enhance India’s global standing and address border conflicts with China and Pakistan.
In a book titled “The Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi”, author T.V. Paul mentioned that Modi now needs to “devote considerable time to domestic affairs to maintain the integrity of the government and its alliance with different agendas.”
The main focus of the new government is on whether Modi’s foreign policy will change, which will impact India’s relations with other countries and the geopolitical situation.
Analysts believe that Modi is unlikely to alter relations with the United States during his new term since this relationship has helped enhance Modi’s image as a strong leader.
India has become a vital security partner for the US, with the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia) forming a key pillar of the “Quad Security Dialogue”, aimed at balancing China’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
Enhancing defense ties with the US is in India’s interest, especially given the repeated border conflicts with China since June 2020, which have strained relations between the two countries. The Modi government has discouraged trade and investment with China, banned many Chinese apps, and reduced visas to Chinese citizens.
Simultaneously, India and the US have expanded high-tech and defense cooperation. President Biden praised the growing Indo-US friendship in his recent congratulatory letter to Modi, emphasizing the potential for a flourishing common future.
Experts suggest that the India-US relationship is likely to strengthen in the short term, considering their shared concerns for regional stability and their escalating defense cooperation.
One notable factor in Modi’s third term will be whether the new government will strengthen or downplay relations with neighboring countries.
In the past decade, Pakistan has often been the target of intense rhetoric from Modi’s BJP. Now, with the BJP relying on the National Democratic Alliance to govern, it will need to consider the interests of its alliance partners, potentially tempering Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda.
Observers emphasize that how the BJP adjusts its policy objectives and rhetoric towards Pakistan under this new political reality remains to be seen.
After Modi’s domestic position weakened in the elections, he may feel compelled to respond decisively to any threats from China. Critics previously accused Modi of not responding forcefully enough to China after the deadly border clash in 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.
During the election campaign, the BJP promised to accelerate the development of robust infrastructure along the India-China border. Modi’s new term is expected to focus on strengthening border infrastructure, enhancing defense capabilities, and bolstering strategic alliances with like-minded nations to ensure peace in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait.
India is expected to maintain its defense and trade relations with Russia; however, India is concerned about Russia’s “unlimited friendship” with China, complicating India’s security considerations and regional balance.
The Modi government has been actively trying to attract foreign companies to shift their supply chains away from China.
Additionally, the BJP, under Modi’s leadership, continues to seek permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council, but this involves UN reform. The reform of the UNSC poses a structural challenge, and as a permanent member, China is unlikely to welcome India joining this group.
In dealing with neighboring countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Afghanistan, Modi’s government has always prioritized “neighborhood first” as a significant diplomatic policy initiative, which is expected to continue.
Despite trust deficits and China’s increasing influence, India provided $4 billion in assistance to Sri Lanka during its economic crisis in 2022, successfully countering Beijing’s sway over the country. Nevertheless, China’s research vessel continues to dock in Sri Lankan ports, posing a threat to India’s maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, besides bilateral cooperation with Sri Lanka, India will focus on trilateral cooperation with Japan and Sri Lanka, considering Japan as a key development partner for Sri Lanka.