In the 2024 U.S. Congressional elections, the Democratic Party needs only a net gain of 5 seats to secure a majority in the House of Representatives from the Republican Party. The final control of the House out of 435 seats depends on approximately 40 fiercely contested local races, with the results of just a few special districts in a couple of states possibly tipping the balance decisively for both parties.
Nearly 50 bipartisan federal representatives have decided not to seek re-election this year, either retiring or running for higher office, creating vacancies in some intense races where both parties rely on new faces to hold their ground.
One of the most prominent Republicans not seeking re-election is former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Reports suggest that if former President Trump wins the 2024 election and returns to the White House in January 2025, McCarthy is interested in seeking a senior cabinet position in the Trump administration.
Among the notable Democratic representatives retiring soon are Katie Porter from California, Abigail Spanberger from Virginia, and Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee from Michigan. They have successfully withstood challenges from Republican opponents in recent years and have demonstrated significant fundraising abilities. Together, they raised over $50 million during the 2022 congressional election cycle.
Slotkin, Spanberger, and Porter, who are all women, first won their seats in 2018, flipping Republican seats and helping the Democratic Party regain control of the House, establishing themselves as rising stars within the party.
In 2024, they are eyeing higher offices: Slotkin is running for a Senate seat in Michigan, Spanberger plans to run for governor in the following year in Virginia, and Porter faced defeat earlier this year in a Senate race.
Kildee, on the other hand, decided to retire after being diagnosed with cancer last year, marking the end of his fifth term in the House.
Meanwhile, states like New York and California, traditionally not battleground states in presidential elections, have become key battlegrounds in the fight for control of the House of Representatives this year.
Currently, the Republican Party holds a slim advantage in the House with 220 seats to the Democrats’ 211. Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections magazine, told the Associated Press, “There’s no doubt that control of the House could go either way.” The magazine provides nonpartisan political analysis for congressional elections.
Let’s take a look at some of the most fiercely contested Congressional races in the United States, based on information from the Associated Press.
The Democrats aim to overturn 5 Republican-controlled seats in New York and seek to defeat first-term Republican representatives in Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and the Syracuse area.
These races include the showdown between first-term Republican Mike Lawler and former Democratic representative Mondaire Jones in northern New York, as well as the contest between first-term Republican Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic lawyer Laura Gillen representing most of Nassau County on Long Island. These races are also closely watched by Hakeem Jeffries, a Democratic House leader from New York.
Issues like economy, cost of living, abortion rights, and illegal immigration feature prominently in these campaigns as they align with the concerns of local voters – such as high housing costs in New York City and the Hudson Valley, and the influx of illegal immigrants.
Highly competitive congressional races are also taking place in New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and Maine.
In New Jersey, Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr., the son of a former New Jersey governor, is facing strong Democratic challengers in a wealthy suburban district that President Biden won in 2020. Kean is expected to face a tough challenge from the Democrats.
In eastern Pennsylvania, three-term Democratic representative Susan Wild won the last election by a slim margin of less than 6,000 votes. Her district covers Allentown and the Lehigh Valley, and she is expected to face a serious challenge from Republicans again.
Six-term Democratic representative Matt Cartwright is also fighting to hold onto his seat in northeastern Pennsylvania, a traditionally competitive area that includes Scranton, Biden’s hometown. Trump won this district in the 2020 presidential election.
In Maine’s rural 2nd Congressional District, three-term Democratic representative Jared Golden is defending his seat. This district is the largest U.S. House district east of the Mississippi River and was won by Trump in 2020.
Southern California and the Central Valley have several Republican-held seats, making them some of the most competitive congressional seats nationwide. These seats are crucial for the Democrats to secure a majority in the House.
One of the fiercely contested races is in northern Los Angeles, where Republican Congressman Mike Garcia is facing off against Democratic challenger George Whitesides. Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and CEO of Virgin Galactic, is positioned against Garcia, a former U.S. Navy fighter pilot and executive at Raytheon.
Simultaneously, Republicans are targeting vacancies left by Democratic representative Katie Porter’s decision not to run for re-election. Porter recruited State Senator Dave Min to fill her seat.
This week, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, released an ad criticizing Min for supporting criminal justice “reforms” that they claimed could lead to more violent crime.
Min’s rival, former Orange County GOP chairman Scott Baugh, highlighted a series of local violent crimes, blaming the Democrats for a perceived decrease in safety compared to four years ago.
In 2022, Baugh was defeated by Porter in the congressional election and is making a comeback this year to run for the same seat.
A significant portion of the region’s population consists of Asian immigrants. As a Korean-American, Min has a history of advocating for immigrants during his time in the state legislature. He stated that he has the support of the Los Angeles Police Union.
Min has the fundraising advantage and believes that the election “could be decided by a few hundred votes and potentially determine control of Congress.”
Many fiercely contested congressional elections in California are also among the most expensive campaigns in the United States. Debates in these races revolve around issues like housing, rising gas costs, water scarcity, and other national-level concerns.
Furthermore, in the western United States, the Democrats face strong challenges to the seats they hold in Washington state and Alaska, while Republicans face tough challenges in the seats they hold in Oregon.
Republicans aim to secure two Democratic vacancies in Michigan. Republican challengers are focusing on issues like inflation, and concerns that the transition from traditional cars to electric vehicles could harm the region’s economy and employment.
For nearly 50 years, the congressional representative for the central Michigan district has either been Dan Kildee or his uncle, Dale Kildee. Dan Kildee noted that leaving his seat to a Democrat is important to him.
However, Republican Paul Junge, who lost to Kildee in 2022, stated that Kildee’s retirement has made his decision to run again easier.
Junge, a former prosecutor and television anchor, remarked, “The power of the incumbent is powerful for a reason, because people know the name. They feel like they know that congressman. This time I won’t be in that situation. In fact, for me, being the second-time candidate in that area, the people I’ve interacted with know me.”
Junge believes that 2022 was a challenging year for Republicans in Michigan, as voters came forward to vote to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and re-elected Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
This year, Junge self-finances his campaign and has a cash advantage. He actively engages with union members and blue-collar workers, who have historically been part of Michigan’s Democratic “blue wall” but have shown a tendency towards supporting Republicans in recent years.
Democratic competitor State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet, highlights her working-class background and experience raising six children in the community.
Rivet describes herself as a moderate and advocates for tax breaks for families with children in the state legislature. She said, “I believe when we are considering policies, we must prioritize middle-class families and working-class families.”
Rivet criticized Junge in a TV ad for his opposition to abortion rights. Junge responded that he does not support a federal ban on abortion.
In another congressional race in central Michigan, Democrats have enlisted former State Senator Curtis Hertel Jr. to defend Slotkin’s seat.
Hertel, who served four terms as a state senator and worked in Governor Whitmer’s administration, expressed the importance of abortion rights, emphasizing personal freedom. His opponent, former state legislator Tom Barrett, lost to Slotkin by a 5-point margin in the 2022 election and is running for the same seat again this year. So far, Barrett has been able to keep up with Hertel’s fundraising pace.
Barrett believes there are unfinished business and a series of issues – illegal immigration, cost of living crisis, crime rates in the region’s largest city Lansing, and global security threats, have only increased in the past two years.
Barrett said, “I feel like there’s unfinished business there.”
Republican-held minority congressional seats in the Western and Great Plains regions of the United States face strong challenges from the Democratic Party, including in Iowa.
In Iowa, Republican congress members Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn are fighting to defend their seats. The state’s strict abortion ban initiative is likely to provoke strong opposition from Democratic voters.
The unusual method of allocating electoral votes in Nebraska, where 3 out of 5 electoral votes are distributed based on the state’s 3 congressional districts, is putting pressure on Republican incumbent Don Bacon, who represents the swing district of Omaha. Biden won this district in 2020, but Trump carried the state’s other two districts.
Unlike most states in the U.S. Adopting a “winner-takes-all” system for electoral votes, Nebraska’s allocation of electoral votes has ignited enthusiasm among Democrats. Bacon is trailing in some polls.
In the southern border states of the Southwest, the Republican Party has taken a tough stance on illegal immigration, making it a key focus and pillar of their campaigns. This strategy opens up the potential for a Republican comeback in a congressional district in New Mexico.
The seat is currently held by Democratic freshman representative Gabe Vasquez. However, in the past three congressional elections, winners of this seat have alternated between the two parties.
In Arizona, a ballot initiative designed to restore abortion rights is driving Democratic hopes to overturn two Republican seats.
One of the seats in the Phoenix area is held by six-term GOP congressman David Schweikert. Another seat covering most of Pima County is occupied by first-term Republican Juan Ciscomani. The GOP hopes to defend their seats by focusing on border security and immigration issues.
On election night on November 5th, election observers can look at the election results from Virginia’s two seats and North Carolina’s seat as potential early indicators.
Voting in Virginia ends at 7 p.m. EST. Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor, left her seat vulnerable to challenges from the Republicans on economic issues. Another seat defended by Republican Congressman Jen Kiggans is also facing tough competition.
The race to replace Spanberger in the House pits two veterans and lawyers against each other: Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson.
Vindman has promised to focus on restoring federal abortion rights. His twin brother Alexander Vindman played a crucial role in the first congressional impeachment of former President Trump.
Anderson highlighted his background in the U.S. Army Special Forces and sought to present a more moderate image on abortion rights and economic issues.
In North Carolina, voting on election day ends at 7:30 p.m. EST. Due to population shifts and redistricting, there’s a chance for Republicans to replace Democratic freshman Congressman Don Davis.