Western airlines are cutting back on flights to China, marking a shift in attitude towards China among some of the world’s major airlines amid a slowing Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions between the Chinese Communist Party and the United States and its allies.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Western airlines had been placing significant emphasis on the Chinese market, aiming to benefit from affluent Chinese passengers. However, as flight volumes plummeted during the pandemic and airlines began to rearrange their schedules after border reopenings in 2023, complex factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic considerations, and evolving market dynamics have further dampened demand, prompting Western airlines to signal a partial retreat.
Last year, British Airways, after a three-year hiatus, reinstated its Beijing route, calling it “one of its most important routes.” The airline began recruiting Mandarin-speaking cabin crew in January of this year. However, British Airways announced this month that it would suspend flights between London and Beijing starting in October. While the airline still operates flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong, the frequency of flights to Hong Kong this year has been halved.
Following the lifting of pandemic restrictions, the Chinese aviation market has been one of the slowest to recover, with international air travel not truly resuming until 2023, and demand for international routes remaining significantly below 2019 levels. Industry experts attribute the inability to operate these routes to the closure of Russian airspace, a critical factor affecting many airlines.
Virgin Atlantic has canceled its only route to China, and despite not being affected by the Russian airspace ban, Qantas Airways reduced its Sydney to Shanghai route last month due to flying with half-empty seats at times.
According to industry data provider OAG, during the busy summer travel season, the number of flights from Europe and North America to China plummeted by over 60% from their peak in 2018, totaling more than 13,000 flights.
Based on data from A4A, demand for direct air travel between the US and China in 2024 has decreased by 76% compared to 2019.
A senior executive from a Western airline told the Financial Times that the declining popularity of flights between the East and the West reflects broader geopolitical tensions since 2019.
“The nature of the relationships between Beijing and the Western world has changed,” the executive remarked.
While foreign airlines are pulling out, Chinese airlines are attempting to expand their international business. Aviation industry expert and travel consultant Matthew Klint stated in an article on August 11th that as the global aviation industry continues to evolve, the future of international flights to and from China remains uncertain. Although Chinese airlines may continue to expand, the withdrawal of foreign airlines could result in a more closed Chinese aviation market, offering fewer choices to international travelers. This could have broader implications for global connectivity and the long-term competitiveness of the Chinese market.
Klint noted that airlines had fiercely competed to enter the Chinese market, but it now appears that they are not ready and unable to return to China or provide comprehensive services. The forthcoming global economic slowdown (the Chinese economy has been slowing down for some time) will hinder the reentry of Western airlines into China.
After the withdrawal of foreign airlines, how much of the international business share in China can Chinese airlines fill? Klint suggested that leisure travelers might postpone trips to China for a while, and while business travelers may find it challenging to wait for Western airlines to adjust routes, how many of the business customers won by Chinese airlines from enterprises will continue to choose Chinese airlines once there are more options?
“I guess the number will be fewer than what Chinese airlines imagine,” he said.
(This article referenced reports from the Financial Times)