Amid China’s economic downturn and accelerated emigration of the wealthy, the once prestigious Changping “Vancouver Forest Villa Area” in Beijing is now witnessing a desolate scene: a large number of multi-million dollar luxury homes have been left vacant, with gardens overgrown with weeds. Formerly luxurious villas now serve as office spaces after lacking maintenance and repair, falling into disrepair.
Recently, a blogger named “Nervous Cola Cake” released a video showing his visit to the Vancouver Forest Villa neighborhood in Beiqijia, Changping District, a gathering place for the wealthy in Beijing.
He mentioned that he was helping a friend look for a house in this villa community. His friend owns a company and plans to rent a villa nearby to use it as an office.
Vancouver Forest (Vancouver Garden Villa) consists mainly of detached and townhouse villas. Information from housing platforms like Anjuke and Fang.com shows that property prices in this area generally exceed tens of millions of RMB. Many detached villas are priced between 15 to 25 million RMB, or even higher, while townhouse prices easily surpass tens of millions. The Vancouver Forest Villa complex was initially established in 2002-2003, over twenty years ago.
The blogger pointed out that prior to China’s economic downturn, many wealthy individuals had lost trust in the government, transferred their assets and wealth, and obtained (overseas) green cards. In the Vancouver Forest Villa community, many villas are vacant. He revealed that the real estate agent showing him the luxury homes also indicated that most of the homeowners in the community have foreign status, like green cards, and this situation is quite common. The majority of the homeowners are in their fifties (born in the 1970s) and have already emigrated.
The fact that Chinese billionaires are emigrating overseas has been ongoing for years, with growing discontent towards the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian regime, particularly exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. As pandemic control measures relaxed post-zero cases, more and more Chinese billionaires accelerated their emigration abroad.
In reality, the blogger’s observations are not isolated incidents, as data indicates that the emigration of Chinese billionaires is a trend. According to data from investment immigration company Henley & Partners, in 2023, 13,800 high-net-worth individuals left China, a 28% increase from 2022, the highest among all countries. The company predicts that by the end of 2024, 15,200 Chinese millionaires will have emigrated from China, setting a new historical record.
When billionaires leave, they often take their wealth with them.
In one of the villas, the blogger noted that the garden and lawn had not been maintained. Many townhouses across from the villa were also vacant. “It’s not easy to find a neighbor around.”
“Nervous Cola Cake” stated that this neighborhood used to be known as a more fluid area in Beijing, with high turnover rates during the real estate boom era. The density of houses in the area is not low, mostly being standalone buildings. However, the neighborhood’s fluidity has decreased significantly.
He mentioned that currently, the prices of these second-hand luxury homes have almost halved, but they are still difficult to sell.
Officially provided “Beijing luxury villa vacancy rate” data is hard to obtain. The Chinese authorities have seldom publicly disclosed residential vacancy rate data, let alone in the luxury villa domain. Some sporadic media reports or research occasionally mention it, but usually lack authoritative or comprehensive statistical methods.
According to the blogger’s sources, most of the vacant villas are now being rented for office use, or for shooting videos or live streaming, with the villas filled with goods. Few people rent these villas for residential purposes.
He noted that many residents in this community noticed their neighbors’ houses being unoccupied and would park their cars in their parking spaces.
An on-site agent mentioned that some tenants living in this community ran out of money, couldn’t pay rent, and vacated their houses in the first half of last year.
The observations made by this blogger align with some macro trends in the current high-end residential market in Beijing. Although precise data on luxury villa vacancy rates are difficult to obtain, from market transaction data, even multimillion-dollar villas are facing pressure to sell, with some newly launched luxury projects needing price adjustments to attract buyers. This contrasts sharply with the high turnover rates during the past real estate boom era. Moreover, luxury villas generally have lower rental returns, making it harder for owners to find high-paying tenants in a declining market.
The blogger reflected on how most of the homeowners in this villa community are from the 1970s generation, who started their businesses around 2000 and became wealthy. By the time before the pandemic (2020), they had earned enough money to either emigrate abroad or lay low domestically. However, he described that the “80s generation” now faces the dilemma of being halfway up the mountain when the pandemic struck: the air thins as they cannot climb higher and have to descend. This is the current reality.
“Nervous Cola Cake” mentioned that some villas remained unrented for a long time, leading to significant damages throughout the entire villa. Many details require attention, such as broken tiles, cracked wooden floors, damaged outdoor decorations, fences, and damp lower parts of garage walls, making the appearance disturbing. When a villa remains unoccupied for years, it becomes chaotic and messy. With the impact of the pandemic’s lockdown measures, these villas now only serve as office spaces.
The blogger also mentioned that in the “Vancouver Forest Garden,” some houses are under renovation while others are up for rent. This differentiation is particularly pronounced—some people are leaving, while others are renovating.
He also noted that in the past, wealthy individuals spent millions on villa renovations after purchase, but now, this villa community is different from before, with some villas’ renovations exuding a sense of cheapness. Many luxury homes are rented out for office use, and companies generally do not maintain the villas, using them as is, leading to widespread dereliction of these luxury properties.