On May 27th, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, along with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, attended a trilateral leaders’ meeting that marked the resumption of the summit after a four-year hiatus. Li described the meeting as a “restart and a new beginning.” This marks a significant diplomatic move by the Chinese Communist Party to court Japan and South Korea while potentially fracturing the US-Japan-South Korea iron triangle. However, North Korea seemed displeased by this development as they launched a satellite on the same day, directly violating a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting Pyongyang from using ballistic missile technology, in a clear display of discontent.
After the trilateral meeting, the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea issued a joint declaration reaffirming their respective positions on regional peace and stability, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and the abduction issue. However, China deliberately downplayed its commitment, avoiding direct mention of North Korea by using the term “Korean Peninsula” instead, emphasizing Beijing’s stance differing from that of Japan and South Korea, but still provoking Pyongyang.
On the same day, North Korea publicly denounced the trilateral leaders’ meeting for discussing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, condemning the joint statement as an infringement on North Korea’s sovereignty and labeling it a “serious political provocation.” It marked a rare public criticism of China by North Korea since Beijing supported UN Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang for its nuclear and missile tests in 2017.
In contrast, the language used in the joint declarations of the 7th and 8th China-Japan-South Korea trilateral leaders’ meetings in 2018 and 2019, respectively, reflected a much more cooperative tone towards denuclearization and peace in the region.
North Korea’s recent criticism of China seemed to stem from longstanding grievances towards Beijing. For example, in March 28th, despite 13 Security Council members voting in favor, China abstained from voting in a resolution aimed at extending the mandate of the expert panel on North Korea sanctions due to Russia’s opposition. This incident highlighted a divergence in China’s alignment with Russia on North Korea issues.
Additionally, as reports speculated about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s potential visit to North Korea following his visit to China in May, tensions rose as Beijing expressed a preference for bilateral relations over the trilateral alliance proposal by Russia, causing further unease among Chinese authorities. This development indicated a shift in North Korea’s focus towards improving relations with Russia amid strained ties with China.
The evolving closeness between North Korea and Russia, as evidenced by recent high-level meetings, has fueled concerns within the Chinese leadership. The perceived secrecy surrounding discussions between Putin and Kim Jong Un has prompted Chinese diplomats to inquire about potential agreements between the two leaders, further complicating China’s diplomatic strategy in the region.
Conversely, Putin’s interactions with North Korea have been strategic, leveraging the situation to exert pressure on China. During his recent visit to China following his reappointment as the Russian President, Putin proposed a dialogue on the issue of the Tumen River’s downstream navigation for Chinese vessels, an area of strategic importance for China’s maritime connectivity and potentially outlining a new maritime route via the Japan Sea and the Arctic Ocean to Europe and North America.
While on the surface, Putin’s gesture may appear as a goodwill gesture towards Xi Jinping, it actually serves as a subtle move to assert influence over China through potential collaboration with North Korea in the navigation rights of the Tumen River. This strategic maneuver highlights the delicate balance of power dynamics among China, Russia, and North Korea, where cooperation is intertwined with underlying tensions and conflicting interests.
The dynamics among China, Russia, and North Korea show a complex interplay of alliances and rivalries as each party navigates their strategic interests in the region. As these three countries attempt to forge closer ties, they are faced with a myriad of challenges and disagreements that hinder complete cooperation, resulting in moments of collaboration and mutual distrust within the shifting geopolitical landscape.