On April 16, Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Scholz. After the meeting, the two took a walk together and had lunch, engaging in further discussions on a wide range of topics, talking face to face for over three hours. Although it seemed pleasant, according to reports from Xinhua News Agency and Deutsche Welle, the two had vastly different conversational styles and significant differences in positions, indicating that there are many variables and uncertainties in the China-Germany relationship.
For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Scholz is seen as the political successor to “old friend” Merkel, and they are trying to win over Germany, disrupt the EU’s unified stance towards China, and sow discord in transatlantic relations, showing great respect for Scholz. When Scholz took office as Chancellor in November 2022, he became the first Western leader to visit China after the 20th Party Congress. Now, a year and a half later, Scholz has become the first leader of a major Western power to visit China in 2024.
As for Scholz, after more than two years in office as Chancellor, Germany has begun to face significant problems, with the most prominent being a weak government and low approval ratings. Germany has even been called the “sick man of Europe.” Although Germany’s GDP surpassed Japan’s in 2023 to become the world’s third-largest economy, Germany’s GDP actually decreased by 0.3% after price adjustments from the previous year. Scholz aims to revitalize the economy and still holds certain illusions about China. Therefore, despite facing significant pressure both domestically and internationally, Scholz visited China in November 2022, even if it was just a “one-day trip.” This visit lasted three days and included a delegation of top business representatives. According to Agence France-Presse, Germany wants to lower risks while not offending Beijing, while the French newspaper “Le Monde” pointed out that Germany tends to seek reconciliation rather than confrontation with Beijing. Even before Scholz’s visit, the chairman of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, Hildegard Müller, explicitly stated opposition to punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
However, domestic politics and international developments in Germany have prevented Scholz from returning to the era of Merkel. Fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, on June 14 last year, Scholz’s government issued Germany’s first post-World War II “National Security Strategy”, aimed at revitalizing the country’s defense capabilities, hoping to achieve a “military breakout.” A month later, on July 13, Scholz’s government released a comprehensive China strategy for the first time, taking a tougher stance by designating China as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.” The strategy aims to significantly reduce reliance on Chinese goods while maintaining economic relations worth hundreds of billions of dollars (in contrast to the Merkel government, which viewed China as a huge market for German goods).
Scholz’s visit to China, in reality, shows a mix of soft and tough approaches, with increased precautions against the CCP. For example, during the visit, stringent measures were taken by the German side to prevent CCP espionage, including not bringing electronic devices with sensitive data, keeping phones close at hand, and disposing of devices to be taken to China upon return.
Analyzing the talks between Xi Jinping and Scholz, it is evident that China and Germany are on two different paths.
Xi’s speech is filled with grandeur. For example, he praised Germany as a “great power” and emphasized the importance of China-Germany cooperation, stating that the two countries have significant influence across Asia, Europe, and the whole world and have no fundamental conflicts of interest (intentionally overlooking ideological differences). Xi hinted at the hope for Germany to become a pole in the future multipolar world, firmly positioning China and Germany as comprehensive strategic partners (trying to bring Germany closer while creating rifts in German-EU and US-German relations). Xi also claimed that the industrial and supply chains of China and Germany are deeply intertwined, and the two countries are highly dependent on each other’s markets. He stated that cooperation between China and Germany is not a “risk” but a guarantee for stable relations and opportunities for the future. However, in reality, China’s GDP is more than four times that of Germany, leading to trade imbalances where China enjoys a substantial trade surplus. The dumping of low-priced industrial goods and fierce competition in mid-to-high-end manufacturing from China have significantly impacted the German economy. While the past emphasized complementary economic relations between China and Germany, the current focus has shifted to competitive dynamics.
Scholz’s speech, besides some appeasement, mainly expressed Germany’s positions. Firstly, he mentioned that the European market should be open and fair to Chinese cars, but stressed the importance of maintaining fair competition, stating “no dumping, no overproduction, no infringement.” Secondly, Germany demands that China promote “just peace” on the Ukraine issue. Scholz expressed concerns about the Taiwan issue in a nuanced manner, stating, “Small countries should not live in fear of large countries” and emphasizing that using force to change borders is not acceptable.
From the speeches of both leaders, it is clear that the common interests between China and Germany are limited. While both sides try to downplay their differences, they cannot conceal the deep-rooted disparities between them. Both sides express desires for cooperation, but they are unable to resist the impacts of significant adjustments in the international landscape.
One key point of Scholz’s second visit to China is Germany’s hope that China will constrain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while China hopes Germany will distance itself from the US and help bring China and Europe closer, but both sides have yet to achieve their desired outcomes. The future of Sino-German relations is characterized by high uncertainty.
责任编辑: 金岳#