In accordance with various Wall Street institutions’ research, Reuters has compiled a list of the most notable battleground “counties” for the year 2024. It is worth noting that these are not the 7 battleground states, but rather a list of crucial “counties” within each state.
The Wall Street institutions consulted include UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, the Washington Beacon Policy Advisory Company, as well as the Crystal Ball organization of Larry Sabato and the University of Virginia’s Political Center.
Maricopa County, with a population of 4.5 million (accounting for over half of Arizona’s population), is considered one of the most critical battlegrounds in the United States, whether for the presidency or the Senate.
According to the Washington Beacon Policy Advisory Company, Biden is the first Democratic candidate since President Truman in 1948 to win this county.
Local voting ends at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, but the counting of votes will not begin until an hour after all voting activities have been reported.
Local media reports indicate that election officials have warned that it may take up to 13 days to tabulate all votes in Maricopa County.
In 2020, the Associated Press and Fox News declared Biden the winner in Arizona shortly after the end of polling, while other media outlets took nine days to confirm his victory.
The Sunshine State is not a battleground, as Trump holds a significant lead over Harris in Florida’s polls. However, political analysts are monitoring Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, expecting results to be announced soon after voting ends at 7 p.m.
From the 2008 election cycle to 2016, the county was a strong Democratic stronghold, with Hillary winning by a 30-point margin in 2016; however, by 2020, Biden’s lead had decreased to 7 points.
Miami-Dade County is considered a key county for Harris. The Washington Beacon Policy Advisory Company indicates a further decline in Vice President’s support in the Miami area, especially among Hispanic voters, which could pose greater challenges for her.
DeKalb and Gwinnett Counties in Georgia are seen as bellwethers for the Democrats in the state.
Biden has a clear advantage in these two counties, helping him win Georgia by a slim margin in 2020.
Analysts also point out that nearby Cobb County may indicate Harris’s performance among suburban voters, a key voting bloc. Democrats have consistently won votes in Cobb County in the past two presidential elections.
Georgia’s voting ends at 7 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, with early counting starting at 7 a.m., meaning the state may announce results faster than other battleground states.
Since 2008, winning Saginaw County’s presidential candidate has also meant winning Michigan, with Biden winning the state by a thin margin in 2020.
UBS and Morgan Stanley have also identified Wayne County as another crucial county in Michigan. The county includes most of the Detroit metropolitan area. In 2020, Biden won Wayne County by around a 2:1 margin.
Most polling stations in Michigan close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Since the 2020 election, the state has implemented policies to expedite the counting process.
Biden won Nevada by less than 3 points in 2020. Clark County is a heavyweight county, containing over half of the state’s population, including the Las Vegas area.
Analysts note that Washoe County is the second most populous county in Nevada and worth watching. Republicans hope to erode the Democrats’ advantage in the area.
Nevada’s voting ends at 10 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Most areas of the state are expected to vote by mail, potentially causing delays in announcing results.
Since President Obama’s election in 2008, the Democrats have not won a presidential election in North Carolina; however, polls indicate the state is one of the swing states in 2024.
Wake and Mecklenburg Counties have historically been Democratic strongholds. Nevertheless, Harris must have a substantial lead in these two counties to win the state.
The Crystal Ball report also highlights Cabarrus County’s suburbs as another county of interest. Trump won Cabarrus in 2020, but his lead declined by 10 points compared to 2016.
Voting ends in North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. State officials will begin counting early voting from 5 p.m. that day.
Pennsylvania confirmed Biden’s victory four days after the end of the election day in 2020, securing his presidency. Pennsylvania is widely considered a crucial state for both candidates in 2024.
Erie County will serve as a good barometer; it is a working-class area that voted for Trump in 2016 but for Biden in 2020.
Analysts have also singled out Lackawanna County, Biden’s birthplace. Lackawanna is another working-class county but has leaned toward the Republican Party in recent years. Trump’s strong voting rate in Lackawanna may indicate his performance statewide.
Voting in Pennsylvania ends at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, with officials processing early votes starting at 7 a.m. that day, potentially slowing down the announcement of results. This process may be delayed because several swing states allow early vote processing in the weeks leading up to election day.
In 2020, Biden won Dane County in Wisconsin with over 75% of the vote, and Harris needs to secure substantial local support to win the state.
Waukesha County, once a Republican stronghold, has gradually shifted towards the Democratic Party in recent elections, becoming another county on analysts’ watchlist.
Voting in Wisconsin ends at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Analysts caution that results may be delayed due to early voting being processed on election day, and votes from Milwaukee County are sometimes not reported until the early hours of Wednesday.
(This text is partially based on reporting by Reuters)