In recent times, Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign has been escalating, with continuous changes in high-level government personnel such as the State President, the National Assembly Chairman, and the Prime Minister, leading to a period of political turmoil. The Communist Party of Vietnam is using the “furnace of fire” to combat corruption domestically while employing “bamboo diplomacy” to balance its international relations. Experts point out that when observing Vietnam’s future, one should pay attention to internal power struggles and the attitude of the United States.
On May 18, the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam nominated Minister of Public Security To Lam as State President and Tran Thanh Man, the current Vice Chairman of the National Assembly, as the Chairman of the National Assembly.
To Lam, aged 66, has been serving as the Minister of Public Security since 2016 and is a key figure in the anti-corruption campaign initiated by the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong. Since 2021, he has also been the Deputy Director of the Communist Party’s Anti-Corruption Steering Committee.
Tran Thanh Man, the newly appointed Chairman of the National Assembly, is a rising star in the Communist Party of Vietnam’s political arena and a strong contender for the future position of General Secretary alongside To Lam. Observers believe that political infighting may continue until the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party in January 2026.
On January 17, 2023, the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam agreed to the resignation of Nguyen Xuan Phuc as State President and Chairman of the National Defense and Security Council due to his responsibility for corruption involving many officials under his jurisdiction.
On March 20 of this year, Vo Van Thuong, who replaced Nguyen Xuan Phuc as the President, resigned from his positions as State President, Political Bureau member, and Central Committee member, due to allegations of violating party rules.
On April 26, National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue also resigned from his position due to “irregularities”.
Vuong Dinh Hue, an educated economist, had previously served as Deputy Prime Minister and Auditor General and was once considered a leading candidate to succeed Nguyen Phu Trong as General Secretary of the Communist Party.
In early April, Vuong Dinh Hue conducted a week-long visit to Beijing and met with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. Rumors circulated during his visit that his assistant had been arrested, which was later confirmed by Vietnamese authorities two weeks later. His downfall was believed to be a result of power struggles behind the scenes.
On May 20, Taiwanese macroeconomist Wu Jialong, in an interview with the Epoch Times, stated, “Just like the power struggles between the native faction and the international faction within the Chinese Communist Party, the current political turmoil in Vietnam should be seen as a competition between the pro-Chinese faction and the pro-American faction. The result is a victory for the conservative pro-Chinese faction and a failure for the reformist pro-American faction.”
Before the 12th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in January 2016, then-Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung was once speculated to be elected as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. However, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was re-elected, and Nguyen Tan Dung failed to enter the Central Committee, signifying his defeat in the power struggle. On April 6, 2016, Nguyen Tan Dung completed his term as Prime Minister, stepping down from office and being succeeded by Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
Among the “Four Pillars of Vietnam” (General Secretary, State President, Prime Minister, and National Assembly Chairman), the only top leader of Vietnam who was re-elected, General Secretary of the Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong, launched a massive anti-corruption campaign known as the “furnace of fire” during his tenure. Thousands of party officials, business leaders, and corporate executives have been dismissed or imprisoned as a result.
Truong My Lan, founder and chairman of the leading real estate conglomerate Vingroup in Vietnam, was sentenced to death on April 11 for corruption, bribery, and fraud amounting to $44 billion. The court ordered her to return $27 billion of the embezzled funds.
Truong My Lan founded Vingroup in 1991 and operated various businesses under the company for over two decades, including in the financial sector. She had extensive connections in the political and business circles of Vietnam and internationally, including cooperation with Li Ka-shing in real estate development investments in Vietnam.
During the trial, Truong My Lan remained calm and claimed to have hidden gold worth $23.5 billion underwater. This case, due to its large amount and wide impact, has become one of the most prominent cases in Vietnam’s “furnace of fire” anti-corruption campaign.
David Brown, a former US State Department official handling Vietnam affairs, characterized this trial as unprecedented for Vietnam. As a Marxist, Nguyen Phu Trong believed that the unchecked corruption in Vietnam would threaten the Communist Party’s ruling foundation. Thus, he initiated this anti-corruption campaign after defeating a pro-business prime minister and securing the top position.
Wu Jialong stated, “Vietnam’s approach is similar to that of the Chinese Communist Party – it’s a necessity and a result of internal power struggles. As Xi Jinping was unable to grasp real power after coming to office, he cleaned up political enemies through anti-corruption measures to consolidate his power. Nguyen Phu Trong is following a similar path. In a communist state, what truly matters is the ability to firmly hold onto power.”
The power struggles within Vietnam will inevitably extend to international affairs. Vietnam’s current implementation of “bamboo diplomacy” is seen as a concrete measure to maintain the communist regime and the power of the top leaders.
“Bamboo diplomacy” refers to Vietnam’s balanced diplomacy among the US, China, Japan, Russia, and other nations, with its foreign policy likened to the flexibility and strength of bamboo roots.
Like Korea and Japan, Vietnam shares a Chinese cultural influence and has been historically influenced by China, having been conquered by China four times in its history. During the rule of the Nguyen Dynasty in 1884, the Qing Dynasty and France engaged in the Sino-French War, leading to the Qing government acknowledging French suzerainty over Vietnam, thereby diminishing China’s influence.
In 1950, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam) under Communist control established diplomatic relations with China and considered China as an equally important communist ally as the Soviet Union, although they were wary of China dominating Vietnam again. China provided North Vietnam with 1 billion RMB in aid to deter Soviet assistance, thus creating a wedge in the Soviet-Vietnam relationship.
Nevertheless, Vietnam has maintained a good relationship with the Soviet Union and later with Russia thus far.
On May 15, the Russian Embassy in Vietnam, along with various organizations including the Vietnam-Russia Friendship Association, held a meeting to share information on Russia and the cooperation between the two countries.
Gennady Stepanovich Bezdetko, the Russian Ambassador to Vietnam, emphasized that countries in the ASEAN region, including Vietnam, play a crucial role in Russia’s priorities in the Asia-Pacific region. Vietnam has held an important position in Russian foreign policy for many years, and the two nations have a comprehensive strategic partnership.
On March 26, Putin and Nguyen Phu Trong had a phone call, reaching an agreement to enhance bilateral cooperation in defense and security, economic trade, culture, tourism, and other fields. Nguyen Phu Trong invited Putin to visit Vietnam, and Putin accepted the invitation.
Regarding economic cooperation between Vietnam and Russia, the Russian Trade Mission in Vietnam revealed that both countries are working on implementing the Eurasian Economic Union and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement to increase bilateral trade to $10 billion by 2025.
Like the Chinese Communist Party, the Communist Party of Vietnam mostly abstained from voting in the UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After concluding his visit to Beijing on May 17, Russian President Putin, contrary to international expectations, did not visit Vietnam, possibly due to the recent political turmoil in the country.
On May 16, when Putin arrived in Beijing, the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam convened the Ninth Plenum to discuss vacancies in the positions of State President, National Assembly Chairman, and the Politburo.
Wu Jialong pointed out that for Vietnam to survive and develop, it needs to withstand pressure from the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, Vietnam’s past strategy was to ally itself with distant powers like the Soviet Union. “Vietnam fundamentally does not trust the Chinese Communist Party. Now they are relying on the United States and Japan to restrain China.”
In recent years, US-Vietnam relations have been improving, with President Biden’s visit to Hanoi on September 10 last year raising bilateral ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” Vietnam has elevated the United States’ diplomatic status to a level as important as that of China and Russia. The United States also needs Vietnam’s help in countering China from multiple angles.
Wu Jialong noted that for the Chinese Communist Party to dominate, it first needs to control Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries located at key maritime export locations. Therefore, Vietnam is crucial in the United States’ strategy to contain China. A significant indicator of Vietnam becoming a critical tool for the US in confronting China would be when Vietnam allows the US to use Cam Ranh Bay. If the US can utilize Cam Ranh Bay, along with Subic Bay in the Philippines and Kaohsiung in Taiwan, it would create a potent trio to control the South China Sea.
While strengthening its close ties with the US, Vietnam also continues to enhance its bilateral relationship with China, maintaining a balance between the US and China. Three months after Biden’s visit to Hanoi on December 12, the Chinese Communist Party leader visited Hanoi as well, and a joint declaration was made stating the two countries aim to establish a “community of common destiny” and enhance cooperation in defense industries, logistics, and more.
An article from the Chatham House pointed out that the recent power struggles among high-ranking officials in Vietnam are unprecedented. The hardliners have emerged victorious in these power struggles, indicating that Vietnam seems to be following China’s lead. Although the Communist Party’s control has not been challenged, internal divisions are becoming increasingly visible.
The think tank’s article emphasized that regardless of whether there will be a change in leadership within the Communist Party of Vietnam, the country may lean towards becoming a true police state, making cooperation with democratic countries increasingly difficult, while receiving more recognition from China and Russia.
Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam issued directives to restrict officials and party members from contacting foreign organizations. This move is believed to impact various sectors and likely slow down economic growth.
Wu Jialong stated that for the leaders of the Communist Party of Vietnam, concerns about power struggles affecting overseas investments in Vietnam, economic growth slowdown, and other issues are not top priorities. Maintaining power is of utmost importance.
“Observing Vietnam’s future, one should not focus on economic and trade investments, but rather on its domestic politics and geopolitics. Internally, one must observe the situation of internal power struggles, while geopolitically, one should monitor how deeply the US intends to intervene,” he said.