The new General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Su Lin, began his three-day visit to China yesterday (18th), and today he met with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. Experts predict that Su Lin will continue to maintain the diplomatic strategy of his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong, maneuvering between multiple major powers. The interactions between the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Chinese Communist Party can be described as having different dreams while sharing the same bed.
According to CCTV News, on the morning of August 19th, Xi Jinping held talks with Su Lin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Su Lin took office as the President of Vietnam on May 22nd and assumed the position of General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong last month. This is his first official visit since taking office, and the choice of China as his first destination has attracted attention. Before arriving in Beijing on Sunday, Su Lin visited some places in Guangzhou that Vietnamese revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh had visited during his time in China.
Associate Professor Feng Chongyi from the University of Technology in Sydney told Dajiyuan that Su Lin’s preference for China as his first visit destination highlights his conservative nature within the Communist Party of Vietnam. Despite significant economic and national interests conflicts between Vietnam and China, Su Lin is still inclined to align with the Chinese Communist Party.
However, Feng Chongyi believes that the interactions between the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Chinese Communist Party reflect divergent interests. “Both regimes, whether it’s the Chinese Communist Party or the Communist Party of Vietnam, have long since forsaken their true communist beliefs and sustain authoritarian rule based on nationalism,” Feng said. “Both have vested interests in playing the nationalism card, with China expanding in the South China Sea and on the Taiwan Strait, while Vietnam strives to assert its sovereignty in the South China Sea, leading to intense clashes between the two.”
Vietnam and China have long-standing disputes over the South China Sea and border territories. Since the “self-defense counterattack” war launched by China against Vietnam in 1979, Hanoi has maintained a firm stance against Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Recently, Vietnamese coast guard vessels were spotted participating in joint South China Sea exercises with the Philippines.
Due to the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, Vietnam has benefited significantly from investment by Chinese manufacturers adjusting their operations. An increasing number of manufacturers have shifted their production lines to Vietnam.
Gong Xiangsheng, Deputy Researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, believes that Vietnam will continue to take over industrial relocations following the decoupling between China and the US. However, the recent implementation of a low-tax system may hinder Vietnam’s ability to sustain receiving industries moving out from mainland China.
During the current meeting with Su Lin, Xi Jinping reaffirmed the so-called “China-Vietnam Community of Shared Destiny,” designating Vietnam as a priority in China’s foreign diplomacy. Xinhua reported that both sides will issue a joint statement enhancing comprehensive strategic cooperation and advancing the building of the China-Vietnam Community of Shared Destiny.
When Xi Jinping visited Vietnam in December last year, he mentioned building a “community of shared destiny” between the two nations. However, according to reports from Vietnamese official media, Xi’s term “China-Vietnam Community of Shared Destiny” was not directly translated, and each mention was vaguely passed as “consensus for future sharing.”
Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi Jinping and Su Lin jointly attended a signing ceremony for cooperation documents this morning, covering areas such as party schools, interconnection, industry, finance, news institutions, and media.
Reuters previously reported, citing Vietnamese officials, that the interconnectivity of the China-Vietnam railway would be a key topic during Su Lin’s visit. In recent years, the economic and strategic competition between the US and Asian allies such as Japan and the Chinese government has intensified, complicating Vietnam’s role in the region.
Former Vietnamese General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who passed away in July, pursued a “bamboo diplomacy” involving maneuvering between the US and China during his decade-long leadership in Vietnam. When US President Joe Biden visited Hanoi in September last year, Vietnam elevated the United States to the highest diplomatic level alongside China, Russia, India, and South Korea. Months later, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam.
Last year, Vietnam also upgraded its relationship with Japan to a comprehensive strategic partnership. In June this year, Su Lin hosted a visit from Russian President Putin, and the two parties issued a joint statement deepening the Vietnam-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership.
Will Su Lin be able to maintain the strategy of balancing between major powers like China, the US, and Russia, which was upheld by his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong?
Public reports indicate that before Su Lin’s visit to China, he dispatched a delegation led by member of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Political Bureau, Director of the Ho Chi Minh National Political Academy, and Chairman of the Central Theoretical Council, Nguyen Chien Thang, to the United States from July 31st to August 4th.
Gong Xiangsheng mentioned that Su Lin’s prior dispatch of a delegation to the United States signifies a deliberate attempt to balance between the US and China, similar to what Nguyen Phu Trong did before. This approach is deemed the most suitable for Vietnam’s diplomatic interests and remains unchanged despite the change in leadership within the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Honorary Professor Weng Mingxian from the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan told Dajiyuan that it is inevitable for Vietnam to engage with the Chinese government, but Vietnam must also be attentive to American developments since the US remains one of the most significant global powers. Therefore, Vietnam’s strategy essentially involves keeping its options open. Given the current political situation in the US is unclear, Vietnam will need to wait until November to see whether Trump or Harris is elected president before considering how to balance relations between the US and China.
Feng Chongyi mentioned that Nguyen Phu Trong’s “bamboo diplomacy” rooted itself in indigenous nationalism, serving as a pillar. He adjusted his stance as the wind blew, showcasing great flexibility – a hallmark of adaptive diplomacy.