Venezuela held its presidential election on July 28th, allowing voters to choose between incumbent President Maduro and opposition candidate Gonzalez Urrutia. Maduro had threatened a possible “bloodbath” if he lost the election.
According to reports by Agence France-Presse, polls suggest that Maduro is likely to lose the election. Concerns are raised by the last-minute obstruction by authorities in Caracas, who prevented several international observers from entering the country. Among those blocked from entering were four former presidents of Venezuela, whose plane was stranded at Panama Airport on the 26th.
The 61-year-old Maduro has been accused of escalating authoritarianism, imprisoning dissidents, and harassing the opposition. In the election on the 28th, he sought to win a third 6-year term. Despite being a wealthy oil-rich country in the past, Venezuela’s GDP has shrunk by 80% over the past decade, leading over 7 million of its 30 plus million citizens to flee the country.
Multiple independent polls indicate that Maduro trails behind challenger Gonzalez Urrutia by a significant margin. However, Maduro can rely on his loyalty from the military leadership, electoral rules favorable to him, and a political asylum system supported by various state institutions.
In the days leading up to the election, Maduro stated that the results would determine whether the country enters a period of “peace or war”. During a campaign rally, he said, “If we don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath created by fascist forces, into a situation of self-destruction and civil war, then let us guarantee the greatest success, the greatest electoral victory for the people.”
These remarks drew condemnation from foreign leaders such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who stated, “Maduro must learn one thing: If you win, you stay; if you lose, you leave.”
However, analysts told Agence France-Presse that Maduro is unlikely to acknowledge defeat, especially with his government under investigation by the International Criminal Court for human rights violations, and no guarantee of immunity.