China’s economy continues to decline and the real estate industry is in a deep freeze. On the evening of July 14th, top real estate developer Vanke issued a performance forecast for the first half of 2025, projecting a net loss of between 10 and 12 billion yuan, a significant increase from the same period last year.
According to the announcement, Vanke’s sales revenue in the first half of the year was 69.1 billion yuan, with over 45,000 units delivered and a collection rate exceeding 100%. However, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the loss further expanded to between 9.5 and 11.5 billion yuan.
Vanke admitted that due to sharp reductions in settlement size, low gross profit margins, asset impairments, and losses from bulk transactions, overall operations remain challenging.
Currently, Vanke is barely maintaining cash flow and debt repayment with repeated blood transfusions from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group (Shen Tie). So far this year, Shen Tie has provided Vanke with over 21.8 billion yuan in loans, using its core asset “Wanwu Cloud” equity as collateral. Despite no overseas bond maturity for Vanke before 2027, its financial difficulties are still evident. Vanke stated that it will seek self-rescue through “strategic focus” and “operational revitalization”.
Industry professionals widely believe that Vanke’s losses once again confirm the systemic risks in China’s real estate industry. Even with top real estate companies struggling to survive, smaller companies are facing widespread collapses, with industry recovery seeming distant. Against the backdrop of current market imbalance and shattered confidence, Vanke’s self-rescue efforts appear increasingly feeble.
On the day Vanke released its performance forecast, several well-known real estate companies also announced projected losses, highlighting the severe crisis facing the industry as a whole.
On July 14th, Huakuai City A, controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, announced a performance forecast showing an expected net profit loss of 2.3 to 2.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering increase of 117.77% to 174.58% compared to the same period last year.
Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission-controlled Shoukai Holdings expects a net loss of 1.6 to 2.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year; Jin Invest City Development, under the Tianjin State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, is projected to incur losses of 0.5 to 0.6 billion yuan, while Greenland Holdings, controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, expects even higher losses of 3 to 3.5 billion yuan. These are all large-scale real estate companies under the local State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
Private real estate companies that released performance forecasts on the same day also showed bleak outlooks. Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of the year; Rongsheng Development projects losses of 2.2 to 3.3 billion yuan; and *ST Jinko, already marked for special treatment, forecasts losses of 3 to 4.5 billion yuan, indicating that some real estate companies are on the brink of delisting.