The United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, stated on Tuesday (July 8th) that with the full implementation of the new trade policies championed by President Trump, the U.S. is expected to surpass $300 billion in tariff revenue this year, far exceeding the estimates of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
According to Reuters, Bessent mentioned during a White House cabinet meeting that approximately $100 billion in tariffs have already been collected, and the broad tariffs implemented starting in the second quarter will further boost the total. He stated, “If this trend continues, tariff revenue for the whole year could likely exceed $300 billion.”
Since the second quarter, the Trump administration has been carrying out several significant policies, including imposing a 10% tariff on almost all imported goods and raising the tax rates on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and other items.
A spokesperson for the Treasury Department added that this estimate refers to the calendar year ending on December 31, 2025, not the federal government’s fiscal year (which ends on September 30).
Bessent also noted that the CBO projects total tariff revenue over the next decade to be around $2.8 trillion, but he believes this figure may be “likely on the low side.”
Data from the Treasury Department indicates that tariff revenue for the first eight months of the 2025 fiscal year has reached $86.1 billion, while revenue for the first five months of the calendar year amounts to $63.4 billion. In May alone, customs tariff revenue surged to $22.8 billion, nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year.
The June budget report, scheduled to be released on July 11th, is expected to show a continued increase in tariff revenue, with total customs and excise tax revenue reaching $122 billion by the end of June.
During the meeting, Trump announced that starting on August 1st, new “reciprocal tariffs” will be initiated, covering almost all trade partners. However, before this date, some countries can still negotiate for reduced tariffs.
“After August 1st, substantial funds will flow in, as clearly explained in the notifications sent out yesterday and today,” he emphasized.
Trump also declared that a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be prioritized as the next targets for tariffs.