The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its latest survey findings on Tuesday (14th), showing that the optimism index for American small businesses in September decreased by 2.0 points to 98.8, marking the first decline in three months. However, it still remains higher than the average of 98 over the past 52 years. At the same time, the uncertainty index rose by 7 points to 100 in comparison to August, marking its fourth-highest level in 51 years.
NFIB’s Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated that “most business owners believe that the current operating conditions are good, but they still face challenges such as increased inflationary pressure, slowing sales, and labor shortages.” He added, “Despite the high level of uncertainty, small business owners are demonstrating significant resilience.”
According to the report, 24% of business owners have raised prices, a 3-percentage point increase from August; additionally, 31% plan to increase prices in the next three months, up by 5 percentage points from August. 14% of business owners perceive inflation as the primary challenge, reflecting the pressure brought by rising input costs.
Moreover, in September, 64% of small businesses reported that supply chain disruptions affected their operations to varying degrees, up by 10 percentage points from August. Additionally, 7% of business owners believe that their inventory levels are too low, marking the largest single-month decline in the history of the survey.
The report also indicates that businesses experiencing profit growth, or those actually making profits, saw a net increase of 3 percentage points, reaching the highest level since December 2021.
In businesses where profits decreased, 33% attributed it to weak sales and 17% pointed to increased material costs. Among those with profit increases, 58% credited sales growth.
Furthermore, the proportion of small businesses expecting an improvement in the business environment decreased to 23%, a decline of 11 percentage points from August. 18% of small businesses consider labor quality as the most important issue for them, down by 3 percentage points from August, alongside taxes as the most crucial issues.
In terms of sales, nominal sales decreased by 7%, albeit showing slight improvement from August. However, the proportion expecting future sales growth decreased by 4 percentage points to 8%.
NFIB’s monthly employment report for September revealed that 32% of small business owners reported being unable to fill current job vacancies, consistent with August.
Among businesses currently recruiting or intending to recruit employees, a striking 88% indicated having very few or no qualified candidates. Additionally, 16% of small businesses plan to add positions in the next three months, up by 1 percentage point from August, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase and reaching the highest level since January.
Labor costs remain the primary concern for business owners, increasing by 3 percentage points from the previous month to 11%. After seasonal adjustment, 31% of small businesses raised wages, a 2-percentage point increase from August, while 19% plan to increase wages in the next three months, down by 1 percentage point from the previous month.
Regarding capital expenditures, 56% of business owners invested in the past six months, remaining the same as in August. Specifically, 42% invested in purchasing new equipment, 22% in vehicles, 14% in facility improvements or expansions, 11% in new equipment and furnishings, and 5% in new construction or land expansion. 21% of business owners plan to make capital expenditures in the next six months, unchanged from August and still at historically low levels.
In terms of sales performance, businesses reporting an increase in nominal sales in the past three months showed a net percentage of -7%, improving by 2 percentage points from August; indicating that there are still more businesses experiencing sales declines than growth. Expectations for future sales are slightly cautious, with a net 8% of business owners anticipating actual sales increases, down by 4 percentage points from August.
Regarding inventory, the net increase percentage rose by 3 points to -3%. Unadjusted data shows that 10% of business owners reported an increase in inventory, while 12% reported a decrease. After adjustment, a net 1% of businesses plan to increase inventory in the coming months, remaining consistent with August.
Price pressures remain above average levels, with a monthly net increase of 13%, demonstrating continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted data reveals that 33% of business owners raised prices, while 10% lowered prices. After seasonal adjustment, a net 31% of business owners plan to increase prices in the next three months, up by 5 percentage points from August.
The NFIB Research Center has conducted surveys quarterly since the fourth quarter of 1973. Since 1986, a monthly survey has been conducted to collect data on trends in the small business economy. Survey respondents are randomly selected from NFIB members. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2025.