The upcoming United States presidential election is set to take place on November 5th. According to the U.S. election system, the president is elected by 538 electoral votes, with a threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win. The Wall Street Journal reported that this year’s presidential election result will depend on seven swing states along with Nebraska and Maine, totaling 95 electoral votes.
These seven swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, totaling 93 electoral votes. Only Nebraska and Maine allocate some of their electoral votes based on the results of congressional districts. Maine’s 2nd congressional district and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district each have 2 electoral votes, adding up to a total of 95 electoral votes with the seven swing states.
According to data analysis reported by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, October 16th, Democratic candidate Harris is expected to secure or potentially win 225 electoral votes, while Republican candidate Trump is expected to secure or potentially win 218 electoral votes.
The report points out that for Harris, it is crucial to retain Michigan and Wisconsin, and the 19 electoral votes from Pennsylvania are particularly important. If Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina, Harris must secure Pennsylvania to have a chance of winning.
The analysis suggests that the final result may end in a deadlock. If Harris wins all swing states in the Rust Belt, Trump can potentially even the score by winning other swing states and all electoral votes from Nebraska. In this scenario, the House of Representatives will determine the presidential election result, with each state’s House delegation having one vote.
The analysis data cited by The Wall Street Journal comes from non-partisan sources: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.